The first week of Propageddon was a success. Both the tout and public results were nice bell curves, averaging 6ish correct answers out of 11 questions. On the Tout side, Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF) and Greg Smith (@Gregsauce) tied with 9 correct, and @andrewkdewhirst was the top reader with 8 correct.  I’ve added some questions this week and invited more touts. Get in and fill out this week’s props. I’d like to up the reader participation so I have a couple of things to offer. First, if you share this post on any social media platform I’ll throw you a bonus point. Second, if you get the top reader score Grey Albright will leave you a personalized voicemail complaining about L.A. traffic. I mean, that’s priceless. You can see the full results of the tout responses here. Time for the props…

You’re a head coach whose team is down 14 with 2 mins left in the game. Your team has just scored a TD to narrow the deficit to 8. What do you do?

  • Go for the 2-PT conversion. {41.4%}
  • Kick the extra point. {58.6%}

No way was I staying out of this debate. There is a correct answer. I’ll put it to you this way. Imagine you walk up to a roulette table and a mysterious stranger offers to cover your next bet and you can pick all numbers one through twenty-two or bet on black. Hey, maybe you have a really good feeling about black and think it can be better than red with some extra chances.

Will the FanDuel price of the top main slate QB be O/U $8,450?

  • Over {55.2%}
  • Under {44.8%}

I moved the pivot point up on this prop this week. Only three QBs are on the over side: Mahomes, Rodgers, and Goff. This one could be close.

Which will Todd Gurley score more of?

  • Rushing TDs {89.7%}
  • Receiving TDs or tie {10.3%}

Normally, this is a pretty easy pick for a running back. The tie is definitely in play, though, with Gurley’s receiving role and Cooper Kupp being ruled out this week.

Which will be higher?

I wanted to run this one back since I got the Alex Smith low total half right last week (178 yards). It’s still a tall order, but it made sense with a generational spirit on tap this week in Barkley.

Which will be higher?

I found this one fun. Not only are you wagering on whether Blake Bortles finishes the game, you’re guessing at Hyde’s new role.

What position will the player with the most Bears receiving yards play?

  • WR {34.5%}
  • TE or RB {65.5%}

I was actually shocked this wasn’t closer to 50/50. There’s a good amount of recency bias at play here.

Which will be higher?

Folks may be underestimating the dent Devontae Booker can put in Lindsay’s role, despite being a less effective back. 

Choose one.

  • New Orleans win {27.6%}
  • Minnesota win {17.2%}
  • Over 52.5 {51.7%}
  • Under 52.5 {3.4%}

I split this game four ways.  I think it’s close anyway you slice it. More touts liked New Orleans than Minnesota, but the over was the most popular by far.

If you need an extra edge in this or any contest, try out Rudy’s Tools with a free 7-day trial. His projections are consistently one of FantasyPros top ranked. Send any feedback my way in the comments.

  1. Tee Not Air Jags says:
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    for #1, the roulette answer is easy, it’s just math. you make more if you hit a single number since it’s not your money. meanwhile what IS important is if the amount of the money bet is the same, X on black if it’s the same as X spread 22 times (so min bet for X is $22). so if you lose you don’t care since somebody else is covering the bet, you win if you win, so just try to win the most. so it’s either bet black
    18/38 of the time you get $44 back, 20/38 of the time you lose the money of the guy covering the bet. since we don’t care about loses this means we have a 20.84 expectation if our bet is $22.
    or bet 1-22 each for a buck
    22/38th of the time we get 35 + the 1 back = 20.84 and yep, anybody that’s ever done any investigating of roulette knows it doesn’t matter what bets you make, your expectation is always a loss as due to the payouts it’s the same thing as giving somebody a dollar, asking for change and getting around 97 cents and chance back.

    on the going for it or not it WOULD depend on other factors, your team’s D, your team’s ability to punch in 2 pt conversions, your kicker’s ability to hit extra points, the opp’s ability at stopping TD’s, your opp’s ability at stopping 2 pt conversions, and the opp’s offense too as going to overtime is certainly a possibility. all of that is in play. you have to score another TD regardless of what you do.

    as for the others:
    – when you say “top main slate QB price” do you mean which QB ends up scoring the most this week will his price be over that number OR the most popular pick this week’s QB price be above that number. so i don’t know how to answer that one yet as i’m sure on the meaning
    -gurley rushing TD’s
    – a.smith throwing yards
    – hyde rushing attempts
    – i won’t answer bears till i know about a-rob’s status, but i’m leaning WR’s. till i noticed the TE side includes RB, now i’m going TE/RB side
    – LAR vs GB points
    -over

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
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      @Tee Not Air Jags: the roulette example is just my way of representing something with a 62% chance (going for 2 right away) vs something with a 50% chance (kicking and getting to OT). If you want the full breakdown on it I recommend Kevin Cole’s article. Simply put, it would take extremes for the odds to even be close.

      By top QB I mean highest scoring QB. I’ll need your answers in the form to grade them, thanks.

      • Tee Not Air Jags says:
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        @Roto-Wan: except it’s not a 50% chance and that is why roulette the house wins, 18/38 isn’t 50% but you are being paid AS IF it’s a 50/50 shot (i.e. you get 1 to 1 when you SHOULD be getting 1.111111 to 1 IF roulette was a fair game (i.e. even game, no house edge))

        so betting $22 on black gets you either +22 or -22 when it should be giving you +24.44 for when you win. similar with the single numbers, you get paid 35-1 when you should be getting 37-1. it’s the exact reason bookies LOVE FOR YOU to bet parlays (assuming they can afford to pay out the rare times a large multi-teamer wins). if you win a 3 teamer (assuming spreads here not money lines) you SHOULD be getting 7-1 (if it was an even game) but you get nowhere near that. i know 2.6 to 1 is fairly standard even for a 2 team parlay, when it should be 3-1. the more teams you pick the equity you are getting screwed out of gets very large very quickly.

        yeah, if a team actually is right to say they’ll get a 2 pt 62% of the time it’s an easy decision, i’m saying (and the coaches should probably know more about their own team(s) chances) in some instances an offense just isn’t league average, such that 62% wouldn’t probably represent their chance at a 2 pt. (see TEN’s offense in the last week example, not the same as your example, they only had to go for 2 to try to win right away or lose right away, or kick extra point to tie to go to overtime)

        • Roto-Wan

          Roto-Wan says:
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          @Tee Not Air Jags: my roulette wheel is at a really crappy casino and has no zeros. The math on the 2-pt is this.

          Go for two, succeed 50%. Score again and kick. Win.

          Go for two, fail 50%. Score again go for two, succeed 50%. OT, win 50%. So 50/2/2=12.5%.

          • Tee Not Air Jags says:
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            @Roto-Wan: that means you have a REALLY GOOD casino (at least concerning roulette and you the player). if you are being paid out 35-1 on a NON zeros roulette table that’s a FAIR game, same as black would actually be 50/50.
            if yr chances as a team are actually 50/50 this holds true, OR if your kicker is simply fairly bad at extra points (some guys most certainly are worse than others). some teams i’d guess are higher than 50/50 to get a 2 pt, others i’d think are worse, of course the D against which you are playing determines some of this.

            • Donkey Teeth

              Donkey Teeth says:
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              @Roto-Wan @Grey @Tee Not Air Jags: I think there’s too many unknown variables to include this question with a right/wrong answer when there’s a personalized voicemail from Grey complaining about L.A. traffic at stake.

              • Roto-Wan

                Roto-Wan says:
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                @Donkey Teeth: ok, I’ll give half the people with the wrong response a point and two-thirds with the correct response a point.

              • Tee Not Air Jags says:
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                @Donkey Teeth: exactly, that’s what i’m saying. tons of variables in this situation.

  2. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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    see if i got any adds here (after this week, it’s was at least possibly a good idea to hold RB’s due to injuries)
    14 team PPR
    QB luck
    RB (2) mostart, mixon, barner, crowell, montgomery, m.davis
    WR (3) AB, baldwin, jeffery, moncrief, goodwin, kearse,
    TE (1) vance
    1 flex
    IR (2) burkhead, doyle

    1. who’s my drop for doyle (probably not doing it right now though, already had the hard decision to drop vance or watson, gotta see doyle look good first)
    2. drop anybody else for: enunwa (but when he’s back at least one of kearse/him won’t have value), richardson, ris matt (NYJ), gio B (could slot him into IR 2 slot, he could be useful to me the mixon owner, i had dropped him right before he got useful last time)

    20 team PPR. have these for WR/TE options:
    WR (3) cobb (might not play), grant (isn’t playing), r.anderson (sure looks like he isn’t playing), hopkins, sharpe (bye)
    TE (1) vannett, doyle

    3. guessing vannett can be dropped here (dickson is back now), even with doyle having a bye in week 9 (find some scrub for TE in week 9 later), but for which of: j.reynolds (kupp out again, this time NOT a snowstorm), pettis, c.williams (ARI), conley, switzer, coleman (now on NYG), ESB (GB rookie, this would be ONLY if cobb doesn’t play, but then i’d have 1 WR dead spot anyway)

    • Roto-Wan

      Roto-Wan says:
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      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: 1. Keep Vance in this week. If Doyle looks good you can cut Davis or Kearse.
      2. I’d want Gio as a cuff with some stand alone value. Again Davis or Kearse can go.
      3. Reynolds is the best of that group.

      • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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        @Roto-Wan: also i forgot about a.roberts NYJ. with r.anderson very likely out, enunwa out, pryor off team, ris matt having just joined team (although this maybe could be said for roberts too) and kearse only guys playing this week. both FP’s top PPR WR guys and this week Rudy have reynolds/roberts very close. not to be confused with s.roberts, who’s higher, BUT i WW’d sharpe over him, only to notice he has bye this week, and at time wasn’t so worried about grant + r.anderson + cobb for this week.

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