I met my wife, Mrs. The Joey Wright, in the budding spring of 2004. We got married in the blistering winter of 2014. “Ten years!” you might be saying to yourself, “why would you wait ten years to marry the woman of your dreams?” Your thoughts would be echoing the thoughts of my friends and family during the decade-long proverbial dragging of my feet. I guess you could say I have always subscribed to the “good things come to those who wait” philosophy in life and most definitely when it pertains to drafting quarterbacks for my fantasy teams. I rarely use a pick before round seven on a quarterback, in one quarterback leagues, unless the value is completely justified. It is the one piece of advice I was given early in my days of playing fantasy football and it is the one recommendation I always give to people just starting out. Most of the time, when sticking to my usual method of waiting, I will end up taking two. This is also where the waiting on marriage and waiting on quarterback analogy ends. I am not here championing multiple spouses. Just wanted to make that clear.
Since 2016, nearly half of the top ten quarterbacks have been drafted outside the top ten at the position. The only year at least five of the top ten finishing quarterbacks were not drafted as the QB10 or later was 2020, where only four accomplished the task. In both 2018 and 2019, the quarterbacks finishing first, second, and third were taken as the eleventh quarterback off the board or later. The savvy team managers who loaded up on their running backs, wide receivers, filled their flexes, maybe took a top-tier tight end before addressing quarterback were swimming in gold if they hit on say Mahomes, Ryan, or Roethlisberger in 2018. However, you are just as likely to take a top ten quarterback and have them return top ten value. Although the number one quarterback in ADP has not finished the season as the number one quarterback in fantasy points since 2012. Throwing out Aaron Rodgers’ 2017 injury-plagued season, the QB1 has an average finish of around QB8 the last five years. Numbers like those give me pause and I would rather use my earlier picks giving my teams foundation and depth.
If you do decide to wait until the mid-rounds to take a quarterback, you might want to think about taking a second one a few rounds later. Yes, even in redraft leagues. You may think you can get away with taking just one quarterback and head back to the waiver wire should you miss. What if like Dr. Elsa Schneider in Indiana Jones & The Last Crusade, you have chosen poorly? The age-old advice of “there will always be someone there” is more myth when trying to find a holy grail. Only three times in the last five years has a top ten quarterback had an ADP of QB21 or greater. Now you will of course find players off the waiver wire for bye weeks and short-term injuries which absolutely can help your cause. However, whenever I have a chance to beat other managers to the waiver wire for a player, I want to take advantage. There is no earlier and better time than the final rounds of your draft.
There are a few factors to look at when determining a quarterback tandem. Of course, you will want to ensure they have different bye weeks. Strength of schedule is also important, but I like to take it one step further and focus specifically on what I call, “premium matchups”. I create the below chart every season and when I take my first quarterback, I always refer to it before selecting my second. In 2021, there are eight defenses I have little to no issue starting a quarterback against. Those matchups being Philadelphia, Atlanta, New York (Jets), Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Houston. On the other side, the defenses I call “non-premium matchups” and the ones I am fading away from are the Los Angeles (Rams), Washington, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Here are three quarterback tandems you can target if you are waiting on a quarterback with great exposure to premium matchups while avoiding a forced non-premium matchup.
Matt Ryan & Ryan Fitzpatrick
Where To Target: Ryan (Round 8) & Fitzpatrick (Round 11)
Combined Premium Matchups: 7
Non-premium Matchups: 0
Matt Ryan is a quarterback I am targeting in every draft. It is hard not to be optimistic about someone who has finished inside the top twelve at his position four out of the last five seasons. In 2020, Ryan finished as the Q12. He accomplished this even without Julio Jones for seven games. The team added tight end Kyle Pitts during the draft which gives good reason for Ryan to lead the NFL in passing attempts for the second straight season and completions for a third year in a row. I have Ryan projected for over 4900 yards, a number he has hit twice in his career, and 30 touchdowns. There is no one I love pairing Ryan with more than another Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Last season Fitzpatrick had either 300 yards or two touchdowns in six of the seven games he started for the Dolphins. He is calling Washington D.C. home in 2021, but Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas should make him feel more than welcome. Two of Matt Ryan’s toughest matchups of the season come in weeks thirteen and fifteen against the Buccaneers and 49ers. During these weeks Fitzpatrick has premium matchups against the Raiders and Eagles. During the Falcons’ bye week, the Football Team has a potential shoot-out match-up with the defending AFC Champion, Kansas City Chiefs.
Ryan Tannehill & Carson Wentz
Where To Target: Tannehill (Round 8) & Wentz (Round 12)
Combined Premium Matchups: 9
Non-premium Matchups: 0
This AFC South duo has me excited to stream week to week with over half the season with matchups against either the Jets, Texans, Jaguars, or Raiders. In 2020, those teams ranked inside the top six in total fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. When Tannehill met those teams in 2020, he averaged 27.48 fantasy points a game. The losses of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith to Tannehill’s receiving core concerns me little. Josh Reynolds, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Anthony Firkser feel like more than capable replacements. He still has A.J. Brown after all. The weeks you may want to fade away from Tannehill and start Wentz would be weeks nine, thirteen, and sixteen. These weeks the Colts will face the Jets, Texans, and Cardinals. I am optimistic about Wentz bouncing back with a superior offensive line and receiving group than he had in Philadelphia. I have him projected to throw closer to the 4039 yards he threw for in 2019. Wentz also has an excellent Week 17 championship matchup at home against the Raiders.
Tua Tagovailoa & Ben Roethlisberger
Where To Target: Tagolaovia (Round 12) & Roethlisberger (Round 13)
Combined Premium Matchups: 9
Non-premium Matchups: 0
Here is a pair you can wait until almost at the end of your drafts to take. The only team with more premium matchups than the Miami Dolphins in 2021 is the Denver Broncos. This gives Tagolaovia a floor I am really comfortable with. A full off-season in the Dolphins system should pay off big for him. I have him projected for 269.2 yards per game in 2021 which is ten yards less than the average of his last four full starts. It is a small sample size, but the Dolphins always seemed eager to throw Ryan Fitzpatrick in. He is in D.C. now so we really should get to see Tua work. Roethlisberger is the inverse of Tua for me. Most outlets are listing the Steelers with the strongest strength of schedule in the NFL, but he only has one fantasy matchup vs. a non-premium team. I see his schedule being one where the Steelers compete and put up points. The Steelers managed to keep Juju Smith-Schuester in Pittsburgh to line up beside Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool again. Also, the addition of Najee Harris in the backfield should take some pressure off Ben. It would not be out of the question to see Roethlisberger top 4500 yards with over 30 touchdowns.
The quarterback tandem strategy is not limited to just mid and late-round players. If you do end up using an early pick on Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray and are playing in say a best ball league. You will want to cover their bye week for sure. Mahomes and Murray have the same bye week in 2021 and a quarterback I like taking a last round flyer on is Daniel Jones. He draws a home matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles which feels so much more enticing with Kenny Golladay joining the Giants this season. If you draft either Dak Prescott or Josh Allen, you will want to look at Derek Carr who finds the Eagles coming to Las Vegas. Outside of best ball though, you can just wait until a week or two before their bye week if you go the stud route.
If you are looking to integrate a quarterback tandem into a strategy you are already keen on, I have found a streamlined “best player available” strategy works the best. Focus on filling your required running back, wide receiver, tight end, and flex spots before moving on to choose your tandem. From a total draft perspective, this is how I best like to operate my draft rooms. Quarterback tandem is also perfect for the person planning on taking Travis Kelce, or your TE1 of choice, early. However, I would advise against going “zero RB”. One of the benefits of waiting on the quarterback means your strengths lie at the other skill positions. If you are going ”zero RB” this typically means you would be drafting running backs where you are now planning on taking your quarterback position.
I do not believe you should ever pass up on value at the quarterback position, but over-reaching for them has always felt risky. I will never try and persuade someone away from drafting Josh Allen, but with a first-round pick, I absolutely will. Using a mid to late-round quarterback tandem allows you to really build and focus on the rest of your team. In best-ball leagues like Razzbowl III, now accepting applications for the most fun analyst and fan league you can imagine, it is a must to take multiple quarterbacks. These types of leagues are where you will find the most success with this strategy. Oh, and hunny if you are reading this… I knew I was going to marry you the night of our first date. Now that I think about it, maybe it was you who introduced this whole “maybe we should wait” philosophy on me that very night. Huh.
