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The QB position in Fantasy Football is one that continues to be overhyped. The casual fantasy player is going to be looking to take the biggest names in the NFL, since they assume that the big money names are the ones that will win them big money in their fantasy leagues. However, this isn’t the case at all. In fact, taking one of the top-name QBs could actually hinder your chances of winning in 2022.
The RB position is so scarce this year that if you decide to spend an early-round pick on a QB, you might get stuck in the “RB Dead Zone.” The RB Dead Zone includes being forced into a position where you have to take a guy like Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, or rely on a flier pick in the late rounds that isn’t necessarily ready to be your RB2. It’s much more beneficial to spend the pick on a premier position like RB or WR than to take a QB.
“But Jacob, the QB position is premier!” No, it isn’t. In 2021, the QB1-QB10 all averaged over 20 points per game, and nobody averaged over 25 points per game. You’re better off taking a more limited position and drafting a QB that has top 10 upside.
Don’t make the mistake of ruining your draft by taking an early QB. Here’s 3 guys to avoid drafting in 2022 (and who to draft instead).
Instead of drafting Josh Allen, draft Derek Carr.
It sounds crazy that I’m telling you to avoid the QB1 from last season, but the price you would have to pay for Josh Allen is too much. With Allen’s consensus ADP of 26.6, you would have to spend a late second-round pick to get him. I actually do think Josh Allen finishes as the QB1 again in 2022, but a second-round pick is steep, and the difference between QB1 to other guys with top 10 fantasy upside will most likely be minuscule. With an improved run game in Buffalo, adding rookie James Cook to the mix, it could take away some passing plays from Allen, and some of his rushing snaps at the goal line which is part of what makes Allen so special.
Instead, go ahead and draft Derek Carr. Carr finished as the QB13 in 2021, and his situation has only gotten better. The addition of Davante Adams, his college WR and WR4 in Fantasy Football last year, makes Carr an exciting option. It isn’t often this happens, but a worse offensive line may actually help Carr’s fantasy case. He has Adams and Hunter Renfrow as weapons, both of whom are incredible route runners that can get open quickly. Additionally, he has a huge target in Darren Waller that he loves to target. The Raiders won’t be able to run the ball efficiently with the way their offensive line has played, so they’re going to need to throw and get the ball out quickly. The Raiders are in a tough division as well, going up against three high-powered offenses just in their division. Their defense didn’t make a ton of significant improvements and stayed weak in their secondary. Translation: the Raiders are going to be playing from behind… a lot. This is another reason why Carr is going to be throwing the ball all game, and you can expect a lot of late-game shootouts this season for Las Vegas. If all this wasn’t enough for you, Carr currently has an ADP of 110.5, meaning you can get him at incredible value in the 9th or 10th round.
Instead of drafting Patrick Mahomes, draft Russell Wilson
Patrick Mahomes is currently being drafted as the QB2 with a consensus ADP of 40.2. This would be around an early third-round pick to get him, which is still too high. Mahomes had fewer than 15 fantasy points in four games last season, and in most of the games he struggled, he had trouble finding Tyreek Hill. With Hill no longer on the team and a clear downgrade at WR, it doesn’t make any sense to spend that high of a pick on Mahomes. There are other needs for your team in the third round, Patrick Mahomes isn’t one of them.
Russell Wilson feels like a cheat code in Fantasy Football this year. He’s currently being drafted as the QB8 with an ADP of 79.9. This puts a late sixth or early seventh-round grade on him. Russ is in a new situation in Denver with a much improved offensive line and a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett was formerly the Offensive Coordinator of the Packers, leading Aaron Rodgers to finish as the QB8. A similar outcome might be coming for Russ with a slew of weapons all over this offense, not just Davante Adams. Cortland Sutton is primed for a big year, along with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Additionally, Javonte Williams will be used heavily in the passing game, similar to Aaron Jones last season, and Williams thrives in the open field. An upgraded offense and an offensive-minded coach make Russ a favorable option in 2022 for your team.
Instead of drafting Justin Herbert, draft Jameis Winston
Justin Herbert has already planted himself as one of the best QBs in the NFL. Finishing as the QB2 last season, it makes sense why Herbert’s consensus ADP is so high at 41.1. Just like Patrick Mahomes, this puts an early third-round grade on Herbert. With a loaded offense and a second year with Brandon Staley, there is no doubt Herbert is poised for another great Fantasy Football season. However, needing to draft him in the third round is not ideal. In that same spot, you can secure guys like Courtland Sutton, Travis Etienne, Breece Hall, D.J. Moore, and other players at premier positions to improve your team. Herbert might be a great QB, but for the price you’d have to get him at, he just simply isn’t worth it.
Now, Jameis Winston isn’t a direct replacement for Justin Herbert, as Herbert is obviously a much better QB; however, they do show a lot of the same traits. Winston has a powerful arm and can throw outside the pocket effectively. Winston is a flier pick and may not even get drafted in most leagues, as he’s going as the QB20 with a consensus ADP of 156.8, but there is a chance Winston has some real fantasy value. Throughout his whole career, Winston has been a big-play QB. He loves to throw deep, as shown by his time in Tampa Bay, and the Saints know this. This is why they drafted WR Chris Olave in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Olave is as fast as he is talented, and he could very well take over the WR1 role on this team. A solid offensive line and a good defense will put Winston in positions to succeed, and the weapons on this offense will only help. Along with Olave, the Saints will be getting Michael Thomas back, who finished as the WR1 in 2019 before dealing with injuries the last few years. They also added Jarvis Landry, who may not have a huge role, but he can certainly make plays when they need him to. Before Winston’s season-ending injury in 2021, he was producing and connecting with guys like Marquez Calloway. Now, with more legit options at receiver, he’s going to throw for more yards and more TDs, so it isn’t far-fetched to see Jameis Winston having a big Fantasy Football year.
Overall, the price you’d have to pay for one of the top QBs in your fantasy drafts is not worth it. There are so many other players you can acquire that will be more important to your team, and are at positions with more limited talent. You can absolutely find QBs in the later rounds that will produce, while still being able to add talent at other, more crucial positions. Don’t make a mistake, don’t overpay for a QB.
