The early part of the middle rounds in fantasy football drafts create a lot of strategy separation in my experience. In some cases you have league mates that are itching to get their starting quarterbacks and tight ends. Other league mates are keeping an eye on their ESPN draft rankings sheets and taking the highest player available trying to grab value. There are fantasy players in the mid rounds that start making bold high upside reaches that might end up being dropped by week 5 when they don’t get the snaps or targets. And then there are those who wisely spend their 6th round pick on Raheem Mostert.
Raheem Mostert can be a nice first RB that you take if you are considering a zero RB approach. Or he can be a nice flex pursuit if you are planning on a more balanced roster. It is no secret that Kyle Shanahan wants to run the ball down the throat of opposing defenses. In 2019, San Francisco was 2nd behind only Baltimore in rushing attempts, averaging 31 attempts per game. San Francisco was one of only 3 teams that ran the ball more than they passed it. And due to the success that their offense had last year, I don’t see that changing much.
Mostert spent the second half of the season and playoff run picking up yards in chunks. Out of the final 8 games of the season in which he had double digit carries in each game, he failed to average at least 4 ypc in just one of those games. In the weeks that really count for fantasy football, which are weeks 12-16, Mostert was the PPR RB10 averaging 16.8 points per game.
Mostert’s “downside” is baked into his draft price. With Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman entering 2020 on the roster, Mostert will spend snaps on the sidelines. He’s not a pass catching back, so we can assume a lot of those missed snaps will be on passing downs. McKinnon has missed the past two seasons due to injury, but he is back in San Francisco on a veteran’s minimum contract and could fit in as the pass catching specialist. If Coleman remains with the team (maybe a big ‘if’), he will figure into the equation as well. Mostert has never taken on a full workload, even in college. But he recently said that he is putting on muscle and preparing for 200+ touches. If he stays healthy, I believe that that probability that he gets 200+ touches is likely.
Jeff Wilson is also a goal line specialist that is in the equation. Even so, Mostert punched in 12 touchdowns over the final 9 games, including 4 in the NFC championship. The biggest advantage that Mostert has in this season over 2019 is that Matt Breida is now a Dolphin. Breida and Mostert were more or less competing for the same snaps. Mostert is lumped into a tier including David Johnson, JK Dobbins, Damien Williams, and Marlon Mack. Your personal preference may be different, but out of these 5 players, Mostert easily gets the most bang for my buck. Mostert has shown the most recently shown the big play ability. David Johnson didn’t show anything in Arizona last year, and I believe that Mostert will have more opportunities than the other three in 2020.
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