Welcome to Reservations For Six where everyday the specials are touchdowns. Party of five, no problem. Come in, sit down and let’s talk about six point plays. And don’t forget to tip your server. Touchdowns are the cherry on top of your Sunday fun day. The icing on the cake. And sometimes a touchdown is the only thing that can salvage a shitty stat line. When your receiver only has two receptions for 20 yards with only a few minutes to go and he reels in a 12-yard touchdown you are able to breathe a little easier. Instead of just 4 points in your PPR league, you now have 12.2 and are that much closer to a win or further from a loss if you’re the glass half empty kind. But touchdowns just don’t grow on trees. If they did, I have at least one in my backyard right next to my row of money trees. Unfortunately I have neither. Receiving touchdowns begin with targets. If the ball’s not thrown to you, then you can’t catch it. And if you can’t catch it, you can’t score a touchdown. At least not without a comedy of errors and a handful of luck. Let’s take a look what’s going on inside the red zone when the ball is thrown. Who’s being targeted? How do those targets translate to touchdowns? Who’s making the most of their red zone targets? How about the least?

I have discovered two sources of data with respect to red zone targets. One which includes plays that ended in penalties and thus rendering the intended target an unofficial target in the statisticians book, and one which ignores such plays. For completeness, I will include both. After all, intent is nine tenths of the law. Or something like that. But honestly, I find it useful to be aware of those extra few targets that the official stats do not show.

I’m sure it does not come as any surprise to find out that DeAndre Hopkins leads all pass catchers with 19 red zone targets. After Hopkins is Julian Edelman with 16. However, if we discount attempts that were nullified by penalties, Hopkins has only 12 targets and Edelman 14. The official red zone target leader is actually Anquan Boldin with 15. Then comes Rob Gronkowski and Edelman with 14, followed by Jarvis Landry (13).

Here is a list of players and their official (and unofficial) red zone targets.

Anquan Boldin 15 (15)
Julian Edelman 14 (16)
Rob Gronkowski 14 (14)
Jarvis Landry 13 (14)
DeAndre Hopkins 12 (19)
Julio Jones 12 (13)
A.J. Green 11 (14)
T.Y. Hilton 11 (13)
Odell Beckham 10 (13)
Greg Olsen 9 (12)
Calvin Johnson 9 (12)
Heath Miller 9 (12)
Steve Smith 9 (12)
Brandon Marshall 9 (11)
Larry Fitzgerald 9 (10)
Randall Cobb 9 (10)
Vincent Jackson 9 (10)
Tyler Eifert 9 (9)
Eric Decker 9 (9)
Gary Barnidge 8 (10)
Terrance Williams 8 (10)
Jordan Cameron 8 (9)
Charcandrick West 8 (9)
Allen Robinson 8 (8)
Antonio Brown 8 (8)
Devonta Freeman 8 (8)
Coby Fleener 8 (8)
Larry Donnell 8 (8)
Matt Forte 8 (8)
Eddie Royal 8 (8)
Marvin Jones 8 (7)

Okay, so what are these players doing with their opportunities to score points? Let’s start by examining the players with the most targets. Anquan Boldin “the beautiful” has 15 red zone targets. He caught 6 of them, two of which were touchdowns for a reception rate of 40% and a touchdown rate of 13.33%. Julian Edelman has 9 receptions (64.29%) on 14 targets with 4 touchdowns (28.57%). Gronkowski has 8 catches on his 14 targets (57.14%), also with 5 touchdowns (35.71%). Edelman has one more catch, but Gronk has one more touchdown. Coming from a tight end, Gronk’s numbers are more impressive.

Using six targets as the minimum (just under one per game), here’s what I found. Chris Thompson has 6 red zone targets. He caught all 6 of them, but only one of them was for a touchdown. He’s the only player with at least 6 targets to have a 100% completion rate. Larry Fitzgerald has 6 red zone touchdowns on 9 targets (66.67%). Seven catches and all but one was a touchdown! Odell Beckham Jr. has 10 targets, 7 receptions (70%) and 4 scores (40%). If I were Abe Lincoln that last sentence might have gone something like “four scores and seven receptions ago…

Player Team Tgt Team % Tgt Rec Rec/Tgt % TD TD/Tgt % TD/Rec %
Chris Thompson 38 15.79 6 6 100.00 1 16.67 16.67
Ladarius Green 39 15.38 6 5 83.33 3 50.00 60.00
Keenan Allen 39 15.38 6 5 83.33 2 33.33 40.00
DeAnthony Thomas 39 15.38 6 5 83.33 1 16.67 20.00
Larry Fitzgerald 44 20.45 9 7 77.78 6 66.67 85.71
Tyler Eifert 44 29.55 13 10 76.92 9 69.23 90.00
Coby Fleener 44 18.18 8 6 75.00 2 25.00 33.33
Devonta Freeman 39 20.51 8 6 75.00 1 12.50 16.67
Donte Moncrief 44 15.91 7 5 71.43 4 57.14 80.00
Pierre Garcon 38 18.42 7 5 71.43 3 42.86 60.00
Theo Riddick 34 20.59 7 5 71.43 1 14.29 20.00
Jordan Matthews 30 23.33 7 5 71.43 1 14.29 20.00
Odell Beckham 38 26.32 10 7 70.00 4 40.00 57.14
Eric Decker 33 27.27 9 6 66.67 5 55.56 83.33
Calvin Johnson 34 26.47 9 6 66.67 3 33.33 50.00
Jeremy Maclin 39 15.38 6 4 66.67 2 33.33 50.00
Kyle Juszczyk 46 13.04 6 4 66.67 2 33.33 50.00
Cecil Shorts 43 13.95 6 4 66.67 1 16.67 25.00
Heath Miller 32 28.13 9 6 66.67 1 11.11 16.67
Julian Edelman 52 26.92 14 9 64.29 4 28.57 44.44
Allen Robinson 37 21.62 8 5 62.50 5 62.50 100.00
Antonio Brown 32 25.00 8 5 62.50 3 37.50 60.00
Matt Forte 34 23.53 8 5 62.50 1 12.50 20.00
Eddie Royal 34 23.53 8 5 62.50 1 12.50 20.00
DeAndre Hopkins 43 27.91 12 7 58.33 4 33.33 57.14
Julio Jones 39 30.77 12 7 58.33 4 33.33 57.14
Andre Johnson 44 15.91 7 4 57.14 3 42.86 75.00
John Brown 44 15.91 7 4 57.14 3 42.86 75.00
Jordan Reed 38 18.42 7 4 57.14 3 42.86 75.00
Rob Gronkowski 52 26.92 14 8 57.14 5 35.71 62.50
Michael Floyd 44 15.91 7 4 57.14 2 28.57 50.00
Leonard Hankerson 39 17.95 7 4 57.14 2 28.57 50.00
Jason Witten 32 21.88 7 4 57.14 2 28.57 50.00
Willie Snead 36 19.44 7 4 57.14 2 28.57 50.00
Gary Barnidge 44 20.45 9 5 55.56 5 55.56 100.00
Randall Cobb 30 30.00 9 5 55.56 4 44.44 80.00
Greg Olsen 27 33.33 9 5 55.56 2 22.22 40.00
Jarvis Landry 36 36.11 13 7 53.85 1 7.69 14.29
Tavon Austin 17 35.29 6 3 50.00 3 50.00 100.00
Danny Woodhead 39 15.38 6 3 50.00 2 33.33 66.67
Brian Hartline 44 13.64 6 3 50.00 2 33.33 66.67
Larry Donnell 38 21.05 8 4 50.00 2 25.00 50.00
Jeremy Ross 46 13.04 6 3 50.00 0 0.00 0.00
T.Y. Hilton 44 25.00 11 5 45.45 1 9.09 20.00
Brandon Marshall 33 27.27 9 4 44.44 3 33.33 75.00
Vincent Jackson 31 29.03 9 4 44.44 2 22.22 50.00
Kyle Rudolph 23 30.43 7 3 42.86 3 42.86 100.00
Travis Kelce 39 17.95 7 3 42.86 2 28.57 66.67
Alshon Jeffery 34 20.59 7 3 42.86 1 14.29 33.33
Jimmy Graham 26 26.92 7 3 42.86 1 14.29 33.33
Anquan Boldin 43 34.88 15 6 40.00 2 13.33 33.33
Marvin Jones 44 18.18 8 3 37.50 2 25.00 66.67
A.J. Green 44 25.00 11 4 36.36 3 27.27 75.00
Owen Daniels 29 20.69 6 2 33.33 2 33.33 100.00
Andrew Hawkins 44 13.64 6 2 33.33 0 0.00 0.00
Antonio Gates 39 17.95 7 2 28.57 2 28.57 100.00
Jordan Cameron 36 22.22 8 2 25.00 1 12.50 50.00
Terrance Williams 32 25.00 8 2 25.00 1 12.50 50.00
Steve Smith 46 19.57 9 2 22.22 1 11.11 50.00
Nate Washington 43 13.95 6 1 16.67 1 16.67 100.00
Charcandrick West 39 20.51 8 1 12.50 0 0.00 0.00

Tyler Eifert is a red zone machine. On 13 targets he has 10 catches. Nine of those ten catches have been for touchdowns. From the Red Rifle to the red zone and Eifert-lessly into Tyler’s hands.

Here are some other takeaways from the the above chart. I’m sure there are more, but this is what you get.

One player not on the above list I’d like to mention is Eric Ebron. He has 3 red zone targets, 3 red zone receptions and 3 red zone touchdowns. Maybe Matthew Stafford should look his way a bit more often moving forward. What does he have to lose? Another player worth mentioning is Marcel Reece. With 4 targets he has 4 catches and 3 touchdowns. Those three scores lead all running backs inside the red zone.

While we’re inside the red zone, let’s take a closer look inside the ten yard line and see how that changes things.

Player Total Tgt Tgt % Rec TD Rec/Tgt TD/Tgt TD/Rec
Jaron Brown 4 4 100.00 2 1 50.00 25.00 50.00
DeMarco Murray 3 3 100.00 2 1 66.67 33.33 50.00
Rashad Greene 3 3 100.00 2 1 66.67 33.33 50.00
DeVante Parker 4 4 100.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Larry Fitzgerald 9 8 88.89 6 6 75.00 75.00 100.00
Allen Robinson 8 6 75.00 3 3 50.00 50.00 100.00
Owen Daniels 6 3 50.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Crockett Gillmore 5 3 60.00 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
Kamar Aiken 4 3 75.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Shane Vereen 4 3 75.00 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
Roddy White 4 3 75.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Marcel Reece 4 3 75.00 3 2 100.00 66.67 66.67
Eddie Royal 8 6 75.00 3 1 50.00 16.67 33.33
Rueben Randle 4 3 75.00 2 0 66.67 0.00 0.00
Kyle Rudolph 7 5 71.43 3 3 60.00 60.00 100.00
Andre Johnson 7 5 71.43 3 2 60.00 40.00 66.67
Julio Jones 12 9 75.00 5 4 55.56 44.44 80.00
Donte Moncrief 7 4 57.14 3 3 75.00 75.00 100.00
Kyle Juszczyk 6 4 66.67 2 2 50.00 50.00 100.00
Danny Woodhead 6 4 66.67 2 2 50.00 50.00 100.00
Kendall Wright 5 4 80.00 2 1 50.00 25.00 50.00
Scott Chandler 5 4 80.00 2 1 50.00 25.00 50.00
Rob Gronkowski 14 9 64.29 4 3 44.44 33.33 75.00
Matt Forte 8 5 62.50 2 1 40.00 20.00 50.00
Tavon Austin 6 3 50.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Richard Rodgers 4 3 75.00 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
Mike Wallace 4 3 75.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Delanie Walker 5 3 60.00 2 1 66.67 33.33 50.00
Jamaal Charles 4 3 75.00 3 1 100.00 33.33 33.33
Anthony Fasano 5 3 60.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jermaine Gresham 4 3 75.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jason Witten 7 4 57.14 2 1 50.00 25.00 50.00
Pierre Garcon 7 5 71.43 3 3 60.00 60.00 100.00
Eric Decker 9 5 55.56 4 3 80.00 60.00 75.00
Jordan Reed 7 5 71.43 4 3 80.00 60.00 75.00
Randall Cobb 9 5 55.56 4 4 80.00 80.00 100.00
Vincent Jackson 9 5 55.56 1 1 20.00 20.00 100.00
Brian Hartline 6 3 50.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Martellus Bennett 5 3 60.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Gavin Escobar 5 3 60.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Nate Washington 6 3 50.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Antonio Brown 8 4 50.00 3 2 75.00 50.00 66.67
Jarvis Landry 13 7 53.85 1 0 14.29 0.00 0.00
Jeremy Ross 6 3 50.00 1 0 33.33 0.00 0.00
Jamison Crowder 5 3 60.00 1 0 33.33 0.00 0.00
Brandon Marshall 9 5 55.56 1 1 20.00 20.00 100.00
Tyler Eifert 13 4 30.77 3 3 75.00 75.00 100.00
Michael Crabtree 6 3 50.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Heath Miller 9 5 55.56 2 1 40.00 20.00 50.00
Anquan Boldin 15 6 40.00 1 1 16.67 16.67 100.00
Gary Barnidge 9 4 44.44 2 2 50.00 50.00 100.00
Terrance Williams 8 4 50.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Coby Fleener 8 3 37.50 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
Willie Snead 7 3 42.86 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Jeremy Maclin 6 3 50.00 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Jimmy Graham 7 3 42.86 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Theo Riddick 7 3 42.86 2 1 66.67 33.33 50.00
A.J. Green 11 5 45.45 2 2 40.00 40.00 100.00
Calvin Johnson 9 4 44.44 2 2 50.00 50.00 100.00
James Jones 5 3 60.00 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
Travis Kelce 7 3 42.86 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00
Jordan Matthews 7 3 42.86 3 1 100.00 33.33 33.33
Mike Evans 6 3 50.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julian Edelman 14 5 35.71 2 1 40.00 20.00 50.00
Odell Beckham 10 4 40.00 2 2 50.00 50.00 100.00
Michael Floyd 7 3 42.86 2 2 66.67 66.67 100.00
DeAndre Hopkins 12 5 41.67 4 4 80.00 80.00 100.00
T.Y. Hilton 11 3 27.27 1 1 33.33 33.33 100.00

Here are my observations:

Well, that concludes today’s main course. Next we will tackle red zone and goal line carries. Until then, here is a spreadsheet containing today’s stats. (Excel Spreadsheet.)

 

 

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  1. booya says:
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    Please rank for ROS: Matt Ryan, Tyrod, Carr, Bortles

    Thanks!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @booya: @booya: Honestly, if that’s not a pick ’em I don’t know what is. All four are extremely close and how I rank them would change week to week based on matchups. If I was forced to rank them ROS, I’d go with Ryan, Carr, Tyrod and Bortles, but I’m not even comfortable with that…

  2. Scott says:
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    With Charcandrick, you’re mostly going with checkdown percentage.

  3. Johnny Ticklemonster says:
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    Currently in 6th place, 12 team league, .5 PPR. 8 teams make the playoffs. Just got offered this trade:

    TY Hilton (bye this week) and JStew (receive)
    Allen Robinson and Jordan Matthews (I give)

    The rest of my team is Bortles, Gore (bye this week), Hill (sucks), Hillman (sucks), Dez, Hurns, LaFell, Diggs.

    What are your thoughts, accept it this week and sit TY, or reevaluate next week? Obviously I’m in need of an RB, and the panthers have an good playoff schedule (although the Jags do too)

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Johnny Ticklemonster: I’d rather have Robinson and Matthews. It’s not a bad deal though. The fact that your RB situation is pretty bad makes it more enticing, but Stewart just doesn’t do it for me…

  4. Nature boy says:
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    So would you hold Chris Thompson or try and drop for one of the following: Joique Bell, Brandon Bolden, James White?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Nature boy: I’d replace Thompson with any one of those guys…

  5. Josh says:
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    10 team Half PPR
    qb- brady
    rb- lamar
    rb- woodhead
    wr- julio
    wr- antonio
    te- gates
    flex- hurns

    bench- J matthews
    bench- delanie
    bench- diggs
    bench- J stewart
    bench- benjamin watson

    Should I send Gates or Delanie and J Matthews for Olsen?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Josh: No

  6. Josh says:
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    * Gates/Delanie and J stewart/ J matthews for olsen

  7. Nick says:
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    Hey Malamoney, do you like J Matthews & Az D for my STL Defense? standard scoring 10 team league….I have Ty/Amari/D ADams starting 3 wideouts with Stevie Johnson & Garcon on my bench (Garcon is my drop). I have AP & DeMarco at RB with Duke J & D Cobb on bench

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Nick: I’d definitely give up STL D for Matthews and ARI D…

      • Nick says:
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        @malamoney: drop Garcon or Joique Bell who I just grabbed off waivers?

        • Nick says:
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          @Nick: or drop David Cobb??

          • malamoney

            malamoney says:
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            @Nick: What does your full roster look like?

            • Nick says:
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              @malamoney:

              Roster for week 10;

              QB-P Manning
              RB-AP/DeMarco
              WR-Amari/D Adams/Garcon
              TE-Bennett
              Flex-Duke J
              K-Tucker
              D-STL
              Bench-T Taylor, Stevie Johnson, Gates, Ty Hilton, D Cobb, J Bell

              • malamoney

                malamoney says:
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                @Nick: Perhaps Adams is your drop. Between Amari, Matthews, Hilton, Stevie and Garcon, you have quite a few WR. I don’t know what we are going to get out of Cobb, but it might make more sense to hold him and find out than to carry another WR…

Comments are closed.