This pun works because it is 20 degrees outside in Chicago and Golden Tate is the lede. I will be taking no further questions on the title.

Tate was a dead man walking in 2018. After multiple 1000+ receiving yard and 90 reception seasons he plummeted to a 74/795 line with a split season for the Lions and Eagles. He followed up that disastrous 30-year-old campaign with a 4-game suspension to start 2019 and was left for dead on draft day. Surprisingly, in 6 games this season he is averaging 8.3 targets and is on a 16-game pace of 88 receptions, 1112 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His numbers have spiked in the two games Evan Engram has missed. Reports state that Evan Engram will be out multiple weeks and the possibility of having his season shut down exists. Sterling Shepherd has a possibility of returning, but I’m unsure if that effects Daniel Jones obvious connection with Tate. The Giants aren’t going to stop losing games any time soon. Daniel Jones won’t stop pushing the ball into the seams any time soon. Jones is on an impressive 30 touchdown, 16 game pace himself. Tate is an outstanding WR3 moving forward with week to week upside based on touchdowns.

Nick Chubb (#8) – I’m quite late to the Nick Chubb party. He was one of my primary pre-season targets, but after watching the weekly incompetence of Freddie Kitchens I grew concerned that Kareem Hunt was going to be heavily incorporated into the offense upon return. In a shocking turn of events in week 10, Kitchens deployed Chubb (81% of snaps) and Hunt (54% of snaps) on the field simultaneously. This makes sense as an optimal look for the Browns without David Njoku. The Browns need a method of creating conflict within the defense, and multiple backs is an easy way to do that. The defense must recognize which is carrying the ball, which is running routes, and/or which is pass blocking on a snap-by-snap basis as examples. This is a sensible approach, and it helps maintain Chubb’s status as a week to week elite option as it seems we have avoided a pure snaps split.

Alvin Kamara (#12) – Kamara was the beneficiary of the perfect game script for his playing style in the Saints week 10 loss. However, he only played 78% of snaps. This is a solid indication that Kamara will be in some form of timeshare moving forward with Latavius Murray. Kamara has proven before that on a per touch basis he is the best in the game. However, he is hobbled and the Saints are showing a few cracks. He deserves a downgrade.

Aaron Jones (#20) – Jones went off for another 3 touchdowns in week 10 against a Panthers run funnel defense in a picturesque Lambeau Field snow game. This performance boosted him to the #3 half-PPR RB in fantasy points per week. This doesn’t change the fact that he continues to get 50%-60% of the snaps and 50%-60% of the touches since Jamaal Williams return. This split is on a team that is only 8th in adjusted line yards in the NFL. He is surviving off an extremely skewed touchdown per touch rate. Some might compare this to Alvin Kamara’s situation above. However, the Saints are #1 team in the NFL in adjusted line yards, and Kamara is 1st in the NFL in running back targets per game (Jones is currently 15th).

Emmanuel Sanders (#57) – It is possible that Sanders could miss week 11 with the rib cartilage issue he sustained against the Seahawks. He looks to be worth the wait. Since Sanders was brought into the fold, he has been a presence in the red zone and a primary target within the offense. Sanders had 9 targets against the Cardinals and had 4 targets in 1.5 quarters against the Seahawks.  It was obvious that once left the game that the 49ers no longer had a wide receiver capable of getting off the line against the Seahawks aggressive press overage. The 49ers, and Jimmy G, fell apart. Sanders is in line for all the work his ribs allow him to handle upon his return.

Rank Name Previous Rank
1 Christian McCaffrey 1
2 Dalvin Cook 4
3 Ezekiel Elliott 3
4 Saquon Barkley 2
5 Leonard Fournette 5
6 Michael Thomas 7
7 Tyreek Hill 12
8 Nick Chubb 11
9 DeAndre Hopkins 6
10 Julio Jones 10
11 Chris Carson 8
12 Alvin Kamara 9
13 Derrick Henry 15
14 Mike Evans 14
15 Chris Godwin 13
16 Amari Cooper 19
17 Cooper Kupp 16
18 Davante Adams 18
19 Josh Jacobs 17
20 Aaron Jones 23
21 Marlon Mack 22
22 Mark Ingram 20
23 Odell Beckham Jr 21
24 Travis Kelce 24
25 James Conner 29
26 Le’Veon Bell 25
27 Melvin Gordon 33
28 Keenan Allen 31
29 Todd Gurley 30
30 Tevin Coleman 32
31 George Kittle 26
32 Kenny Golladay 28
33 Tyler Lockett 27
34 Devin Singletary 34
35 Allen Robinson 35
36 David Montgomery 38
37 Julian Edelman 37
38 Carlos Hyde 40
39 Sony Michel 39
40 D.J. Moore 42
41 Joe Mixon 41
42 Stefon Diggs 54
43 Robert Woods 36
44 Darren Waller 43
45 Jordan Howard 46
46 Zach Ertz 49
47 Tyler Boyd 45
48 D.J. Chark 44
49 Courtland Sutton 53
50 Hunter Henry 52
51 Marquise Brown 55
52 Calvin Ridley 58
53 Phillip Lindsay 48
54 Christian Kirk 59
55 Adam Thielen 64
56 Michael Gallup 56
57 Emmanuel Sanders 61
58 Kenyan Drake 76
59 Royce Freeman 60
60 Mark Andrews 67
61 Golden Tate NR
62 JuJu Smith-Schuster 66
63 Austin Ekeler 65
64 Marvin Jones 62
65 James White 68
66 John Brown 69
67 D.K. Metcalf 73
68 Latavius Murray 74
69 Damien Williams 78
70 Miles Sanders 77
71 Alshon Jeffery 72
72 Ronald Jones NR
73 Jarvis Landry NR
74 Derrius Guice NR
75 Matt Breida 51
76 Will Fuller NR
77 TY Hilton NR
78 Terry McLaurin 71
79 Devonta Freeman 47
80 Mohamad Sanu NR

  1. Snacks Zillion says:
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    JuJu, is he dropable, for say a Curtis Samuel or McLaurin? I love the size/potential but at some point…half ppr league. Thanks!

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      He is definitely droppable. I’m not sure you are getting much more floor/ceiling out of either of those options, but I could justify a drop for McLaurin under the idea that he has struggled recently but has also faced three solid to elite pass defenses. That said, I just Rudolph more than Haskins, but the Redskins will be trailing a ton. Coin flip choice.

  2. Snacks Zillion says:
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    Was offered Brees for JuJu, have Lamar but running qb’s usually get dinged up so may do it. Other recievers are Obj, John Brown, Cooks, and M Brown. Thanks again.

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Personally I’d risk it with Lamar. Brees is probably only a tick better than your qb ww streaming options if Lamar does suffer an injury.

      • Snacks Zillion says:
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        Thanks amigo

  3. don majikowski says:
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    PPR

    You starting Brian Hill or Kareem Hunt this week?

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Brian Hill. The obvious risk is Devonta plays but I don’t see it happening.

  4. Wacha Wacha says:
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    I’m not seeing David Johnson. Is he still in the top 80? What do you make of the Cardinals backfield in general at this point? Thanks!

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Surprisingly, it wasn’t an oversight. I think DJ is still hurt and they ran him out there and immediately changed their mind last week. I think this is Drakes backfield again versus the Niners stout run defense. Then we have the bye week and a probable Edmonds return making it a three way backfield. I’m personally shocked a rookie HC would have the guys to phase out a team’s most expensive player but it seems he is either still injured or that’s exactly what is happening.

  5. Timmay says:
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    Hey man! As a David Johnson owner am I screwed ? It’s a keeper league so would you look to move DJ maybe someone is high on him for 2020?

    Trade DJ for one of these: Ekeler, Damien Williams, James white , James Connor (doubtful), mixon. I honestly think I’m stuck!

    Thanks man

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Yea I’m in this boat with you in a league. It was tough to see coming because he looked like one of the most solid workload driven back in the league a bit over a month ago. I think there is a real chance he doesn’t start for you again this year if you are trying to make the playoffs. Could be wrong of course but that’s the feeling I get. Obviously if you can pull the trigger on Conner go for it bc he offers great 2019 and 2020 value probably for the same draft capital. For 2020 I would make a choice between Ekeler or Mixon. It’s tough to say which I like more as we sit today but I might like Ekeler more. I’m not an NFL contract expert, but Ekeler is an u drafted restricted free agent. I believe that means the Chargers can put a tender on him with a 2nd round pick tied to it for like $3 million. I expect they do that and nobody offers a contract. The chargers have shown a willingness to run ekeler into the ground when Gordon isn’t there and he will be gone this off season. Mixon is close but my concern there is that the o line will be improved but Taylor keeps running a second back out there at a high rate. I’d be shocked if DJ isn’t in a split with Edmonds next year. Ekeler may be a good move for present and a great one for the future.

  6. Lachlan says:
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    Hi Pat

    You have Thielen way lower than the normal ROS rankings. Is that just because of his injury? If you are likely to make the playoffs. Would you trade DJ Moore for him?

    Lachy

    • Pat

      Pat says:
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      Hi Lachy,

      It is because of injury, but also because the Vikings have shown that essentially when both are active that Thielen and Diggs are WR3 with some upside. Theilen looks to be out this week with a bye next week. He will come back with matchup versus the Seahawks and Lions which are decent but his semifinals and finals week matchups are the Chargers with the return of Derwin James and the Packers… Not great!

      DJ Moore schedule is a cakewalk. He has almost double the targets and 1.5x the yards in two more games than Theilen. I think he will bounce back on his TD/target rate as well. I’d like that trade very much

      • Lachy says:
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        Thanks so much for your analysis! Will jump on it!

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