Each week I’ll be breaking down a dynasty fantasy football rookie profile. This week I looked in the direction of Roschon Johnson and what his production could be with the Chicago Bears.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile | Roschon Johnson
Roschon Johnson entered the University of Texas as a 4-star recruit quarterback due to his dual-threat rushing ability. However, it didn’t take long for him to entirely convert to a full-time running back. The same year he converted to the position was also fellow teammate Bijan Robinson’s freshman year. They both quickly overtook Keontay Ingram on the depth chart. Roschon is not the most explosive or productive running back in this class, but he is one of the most versatile rookie prospects.
College Production
Johnson accumulated 2,190 rushing yards, 56 receptions and 26 total touchdowns in four seasons as a Longhorn. Unfortunately, he was behind one of the best running back prospects in the last 10-15 years. He only averaged 547.5 yards, 14 receptions and 6.5 touchdowns a season as a result of playing as a supplement to Robinson. However, he was just as efficient as his highly praised teammate Bijan: in yards after contact per attempt, Roschon averaged 4.3, whereas Bijan averaged 4.1.
Of course, the sample size takes into consideration the difference in utilization each of these players received. Nevertheless, Johnson led all of college football in missed tackle forced per attempt metric last year and posted an outstanding 80+ PFF rushing grades in four consecutive seasons.
Strengths
Johnson is a sizable, physical back checking in at 6’ 0”, 219 pounds. He runs with an upright, strong, bruising style. Do not misinterpret this upright running style into thinking Roschon doesn’t have any juice. He is a great north-south, inside-the-tackles runner, with excellent contact balance and quickly sheds arm tacklers. When I watch him, I see that he does possess decent lateral agility and quickness but not enough explosiveness to win on outside runs.
Johnson also knows how to take care of the football, with only one lost fumble. Other areas where Johnson excels are in pass protection, special teams and with soft hands in the receiving game. The fact that Roschon is coming into the NFL fresh, with only 448 career touches in college, is also an enormous plus. He is a great leader, fellow teammate, and excellent locker room presence.
Weaknesses
For as well-rounded as Roschon’s game is, there are a few deficiencies in his game. For starters, I think it’s pretty easy to spot that he lacks some acceleration and definitely does not possess that extra “home run hitting gear.” When he slows down, it’s difficult for him to get back up to speed. He is patient at the line, but his vision leaves more to be desired. Johnson’s processing at the line is a little sluggish on lanes opening up. His lack of burst, coupled with processing, also leads to an inability to create substantial cuts toward opening lanes.
Footwork is also a bit of an issue. He runs a bit flat-footed, and his footwork is pretty choppy in general. I give Roschon a little bit of grace here as some of his weaknesses could have something to do with him being relatively raw at the position, as he did come in as a QB and never got a full starter workload.
Johnson Drafted to Chicago
Draft day comes, and Johnson is selected in the fourth round, at pick 13 to the Chicago Bears. The Bears’ backfield situation is currently inconclusive. David Montgomery left in free agency. Khalil Herbert briefly took the unofficial RB1 role, then Chicago signed the 27-year-old bruiser D’Onta Foreman. As of June 1, 2023, ourlads.com has the Bears RB depth chart listed as 1) Foreman, 2) Herbert and 3) Johnson.
We should all know better than to assume that every situation is to be perceived exactly as it is listed “on paper.” This is one of those instances where I am going to let (some) coach speak, OTAs, camp battles/hype dictate the trends in how the utilization may be leaning for each player going into the season.
Competitive Running Back Room
Herbert and Foreman are both pretty solid players in their own right. Stylistically very different and can complement one another effectively. In 2022 Herbert posted a PFF rushing grade of 77.1, with 474 yards after contact and only nine receptions. Foreman ranked 76.5 in PFF rushing grade, with 661 yards after contact and only five receptions. While Montgomery is now a member of the Detroit Lions, it is worth mentioning he only had 34 receptions in 2022 as a Bear.
We should consider that Justin Fields is likely the Bears’ RB1 and the upside for all Chicago RBs could be capped. Johnson is excellent in pass blocking and as a receiver. This should get him on the field quite a bit on third down situations. I also see him getting a lot of goal line opportunities, which is where I think we will see him much more early and often than many may think.
Prospect Projection
I have Johnson as my RB4 in this class, and I believe he is going to get a more significant workload than people think. Chicago spent decent draft capital on him, and he was selected by a newer coaching staff. I believe there is a genuine chance that by midseason, we see Roschon as the 1A lead back in this offense. We see it play out year after year. These later-round rookie running backs do get a chance. Patience is a virtue and often necessary when diagnosing ambiguous backfields.
