Eggs and bacon. Cookies and milk. Seahawks and Russell Wilson. Three pairs that will forever go down in the annals of history as inseparable pairs. Or so we thought! Until the news broke that Russell Wilson had invaded Russia. Wait, I got my news stories crossed up. I write for the Wall Street Journal in my spare time—or I did until they fired me for writing about Darren Waller’s pectoral girth. Anyway, Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos in exchange for a massive package Noah Fant, Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks. At first glance, it sounds like a ton until you frame it up relative to the incredible extension Aaron Rodgers is getting from the Packers which nets him $200,000,000 over four years. The Broncos have now secured a superstar QB for two years at around $20,000,000 per year—very, very reasonable in light of the Rodgers Rate. But enough about real life and the dirty business of money. Let’s look at how this affects the important fantasy assets in both Denver and Seattle for the upcoming 2022 fantasy football season:
Russell Wilson – I’m calling this a lateral move for the cornerpiece. There are bullish and bearish arguments to be made on either side. The main bull case: Wilson wasn’t happy in Seattle and he’ll now be playing with a chip on his shoulder. I’m not one to doubt a motivated Russell Wilson, there’s a decent chance he tastes the Rockies in 2022. The bear case: he’s losing D.K. Metcalf, probably the most physically gifted receiver in the NFL, and Wilson will need to reacclimate to a new offense after 10 seasons in Seattle. Potato gun to my head? I predict the motivated DangeRuss posts a huge top-five fantasy QB season in 2022.
Jerry Jeudy – Who’s the biggest beneficiary of this deal? Show me the money, Jerry! Jeudy is a budding superstar, and Russell Wilson’s arrival will likely accelerate that superstardom. Very early 2022 NFFC ADP (small sample) shows Jeudy as the 35th WR off the board and 83rd overall. Expect the young pass-catcher to shoot up draft boards immediately, I’d be buying his WR1 upside in the 4th round.
Courtland Sutton – This is an exciting development for Sutton as well. He’s shown glimmers of WR1 upside with the likes of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. Wilson is just a tad better than those fellas. Both Jeudy and Sutton can thrive a la Metcalf and Lockett.
Javonte Williams – Melvin Gordon is a free agent, meaning the door is wide open for Williams to slide into a bell-cow role in Denver. Every running back to ever work full time in a Russell Wilson offense has excelled in the fantasy game. Everyone remembers what Marshawn Lynch and Chris Carson have done, but even Christine Michael and Thomas Rawls had stretches of great fantasy value. It’s not hyperbole to say that Williams might be the most talented back Wilson has ever had, including Lynch. I was already proclaiming Williams as my favorite RB draft target for 2022 prior to this trade now I’m all in. Think 2021 Jonathan Taylor upside.
Albert Okwuegbunam – Albert O fans rejoice! Noah Fant’s departure and Russell Wilson’s arrival is the dream scenario for the big name with the impossible last name. If he’s healthy for most of 2022 and doesn’t post TE1 numbers, I’ll eat my left sock.
D.K. Metcalf – And now for the sad part. I’m left holding my “#1 D.K. Metcalf Fan” coffee mug in a daze. What does it all mean? How much does the Seattle QB uncertainty cap Metcalf’s enormous upside? My initial reaction is less than people expect. When Geno Smith starter week’s 6-8 in 2021, Metcalf caught 14 passes for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns. Small sample for sure, but not too shabby. His physicality and athleticism might be able to turn an average QB into a weekly fantasy starter. I’ll go contrarian here and predict Metcalf is a fantastic buy-low for the 2022 season.
Tyler Lockett – If you followed the predictions of my good alter-ego, Anime Donkey Teeth, then you’ll know we weren’t buying Lockett’s huge start to the 2021 season (see: week 1 buy/sell/hold below). I believe Lockett’s fantasy production was linked much more closely to Wilson than Metcalf. I’ll be fading Lockett unless the Seahawks happen to make a splash with a major QB acquisition to replace Wilson (unlikely).
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Noah Fant – The talented young tight end moves from Denver to Seattle. I’m not sure this affects his exceptional upside much since the QB situation in Denver was equally uncertain as it now is in Seattle. On the plus side, Pete Carroll has been known to make good use of talented tight ends as we saw during Jimmy Graham’s time with the Seahawks. Mediocre QBs also have a tendency to lean on their big men as safety blankets. I’m cautiously optimistic on Fant for 2022 but it’s Albert O over Fant all day if you have the choice.
Chris Carson – Is the loss of Wilson a nail in the coffin for Carson’s fantasy value? I’m leaning yes. The running back is going on 28 years old, coming off a season lost to injury, with a ton of miles on the odometer. Of course, all of those factors plus the loss of Wilson will be priced in so maybe he does end up being worth a late dart throw in your fantasy draft. There’s a lot of uncertainty at the running back position in Seattle with Rashaad Penny now a free agent. This is a situation for us to monitor as the offseason progresses.
Drew Lock – Is Drew Lock the new starting QB in Seattle? Geno Smith is a free agent but actually looked competent during his three-game stretch as the starter last year, and my gut says Petey Sunshine wants to re-sign Smith since he already knows the offensive system. Expect them to also draft their QB of the future in the 2022 NFL Draft.
