We all know the Garrett Wilson’s and Chris Olave’s of the 2022 rookie draft class hit, but I think we all expected them to. The NFL is evermore a passing league, and each year, the expectations of the public and dynasty aficionados also grow. We have been gifted such elite talent in recent rookie years with Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson.
Just because a rookie receiver does not produce at a rate in the tier of these guys hardly qualifies them as a bust. Let’s look at a few wide receivers who “underperformed” as rookies in 2022 and are poised for a breakout in 2023.
Treylon Burks
I loved Burks coming into Year 2 in the Titans offense lacking game-changing playmakers. The major curveball is that Tennessee signed veteran DeAndre Hopkins this week. The target share and upside are clearly capped, but I still like Burks as a breakout candidate, especially at his average draft position (ADP). Hopkins will demand coverage and likely safety help, and double coverage looks at times. Burks can and will thrive with the respect that must be given to Derrick Henry, Hopkins, Chig Okonkwo, and the way the Titans utilize the play-action passing game with Ryan Tannehill. The golden question is, how many games will either Tannehill or Hopkins miss due to injury?Â
2023 Projection
Realistically, this is a run-heavy offense, but there is explosive playmaking ability set to erupt at any moment with the ball in Burks’ hands. My belief in Treylon Burks is also an indictment of Hopkins’s ability to stay healthy entering his age-31 season. I project Burks to see around 70-80 targets, 55 receptions, 900 passing yards, and six TDs. Historically the Titans’ WR2 does not produce enough to yield more than a floor WR3 in fantasy, but they have never had a guy quite like Treylon Burks to demand the targets on the outside. Corey Davis was also a first-round draft pick but not cut from the same cloth as Treylon.
Jahan Dotson
For me, Dotson comes in as WR35, which aligns with aggregate consensus rankings like FantasyPros. Dotson was the first-round wide receiver that everyone forgot about last year. When he was healthy and in sync with the offense, he was out-producing teammates Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman and Mike Williams on a points-per-game basis. Dotson missed several games due to a lingering hamstring injury, Carson Wentz was awful, Taylor Heinicke started games, and there was a lot of movement in the offense overall. Dotson showed consistent and brilliant flashes with his routes, separation, hands, and end-zone touchdown prowess in 2022.Â
2023 Projection
Second-year quarterback Sam Howell will likely have the starting job. Terry McLaurin is a fantastic player and will command his share of looks. Dotson showed target-earning capability in the red zone and the deep passing game last year, which are higher-value targets. We will see less of the gadgetry with Curtis Samuel as well. Sam Howell is a gunslinger, and I am higher on him than most. In his only start last year, Howell captured the Washington franchise record for most air yards on a single pass. Let that sink in for a minute. The translation of this is a lot of deep shots to a great route runner with elite hands and speed in Jahan Dotson. I project Dotson to see 90 targets, 65 receptions, and 1,000 yards, with eight TDs.
Drake London
London had a lowkey stellar rookie year. His size, play strength, route running, and separation were as advertised. Atlanta certainly has their WR1. Arthur Smith’s offense is predicated on attacking the middle of the field, and London crushes routes in the middle of the field. Atlanta showed us all of 2022 and again in 2023 in drafting Bijan Robinson that they want to RUN the football. However, getting open and earning targets are skills, and Drake is an alpha. He quietly compiled 117 targets, 72 receptions, 866 receiving yards and only four TDs. He did play most of the season with Marcus Mariota as his QB, which was abysmal to watch. Desmond Ridder displayed some chemistry and production with London late in the season.Â
2023 Projection
I have London as WR22, ahead of players like Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel and Dionte Johnson. Kyle Pitts will be coming back from an MCL surgery and is not likely 100% to begin the year. London ranked third overall in target share in 2022 with an enormous 29.3%, which was his rookie year. No one else in the receiving room is even close to London’s skill level and caliber of earning targets. Whether it’s a run-heavy scheme under Arthur Smith or not, London will be used early and often as the focal point of the passing attack. I project London for 140 targets, 90 receptions, 1,200 yards and seven TDs. Â
Values
These three receivers had solid rookie years, but because they didn’t blast off to the moon right away, they are still priced appropriately on the redraft market. As for PPR Redraft, ADP FantasyData has Drake London drafted 55th, Treylon Burks 80th, and Jahan Dotson 87th overall.Â
It would have been ideal if you already made moves to acquire these guys in the off-season for dynasty purposes. It’s never too late to do a quick temperature check on Burks, especially with the Hopkins signing. London will easily be the most expensive asset to acquire out of these three players.
For more from Colt and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @Colt_Snody.
