The Shootout

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

O/U 53 , KC -8

Implied Scored: KC 30 – OAK 22

This AFC Divisional bout is slated as the highest point total in week 2. Initially opening on Monday morning as the 2nd highest point total. But following Oaklands offensive display on prime-time Monday Night Football against a loaded defensive Denver team, Vegas bumped the line on the KC/OAK matchup to the top dog. Passing up the 2017 NFC championship re-match, NO @ LAR.

Both Quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr, finished in the top 20 of quarterback scoring for week 1. If Joe Flacco could have mustered up any offensive production against Oakland, Derek Carr’s fantasy output could have pushed top 12/QB1 numbers. Derek posted an impressive 121.0 passer rating and 94.1 QBR. Showing great rapport with preseason camp favorites, Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller. Going up against a defense that allowed Nick Foles and 2019 6th-round draft pick, Gardner Minshew, to throw for a combined 347 yards and 3 TDS- I like Carr’s ability to outperforms Rudy’s projected QB20 for week 2. 

Playing catchup most of the game, Jacksonvilles ground game still was able to churn out 81-yards, on 16 carries for an average of 5.1 yards per carry against Kansas City’s defense. Going up against arguably two of the leagues best defensive lineman (Nick Chubb and Von Miller), 1st-round rookie RB Josh Jacobs had himself a day. Toting the ball 23 times for 85 yards and 2 TDs. Granted his 3.7 yard per carry is nothing to brag about, but Jacobs had to fight against a stout Denver defensive front. I bet his YPC improves against a Chiefs defense that allowed 5.1 yards per carry to Jacksonville. Gruden’s commitment to running the ball and high scoring matchup against KC, gives us the confidence to fire up Jacobs as safe RB2 with RB1 upside. Rudy has him projected to finish as the RB10 in PPR leagues this week. 

After Monday night, it’s obvious who we need to target in the passing game. Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller led all OAK pass catchers in targets, receptions, and yards. I love Waller as a top 5 TE play this week, and Tyrell Williams as a high upside WR3/Flex play. Rudy projects Tyrell finishing as WR39 and Darren Waller TE3. Waller was on the field for 100% of the Raiders snaps on Monday, and following the game Gruden doubled down on getting the ball to Waller, saying “We’re going to get the ball to Waller. Waller’s Special.” Jared Cook finished 2018 as TE5 in John Gruden’s system, scoring 193 points. Waller has the path to be one of 2019’s fantasy sleepers, going un-drafted in the majority of 12-team redraft leagues. He made an appearance on last weeks 50/50 Club.

For the reigning MVP, not much more needs to be said. Throwing for 378 yards, 3TDs, and 0 INT, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid picked up right where they left off. Albeit, mainly in garbage-catch up time against OAK, Joe Flacco was able to post 268 passing yards against this Oakland Defense. Poor offensive play calling and poor quarterback play were the driving factors, rather than the idea of Oaklands defense becoming a power house. Look for Big Red and Mahomes to tear it up against this defense. Rudy projects Mahomes as QB1 this week, throwing for 2.38 TDs, 294 passing yards, and a 46% chance of reaching over 300 yards. 

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman combined 21 carries for 99 yards on the ground against Oaklands defense for a healthy 4.7 yards per carry. In a high scoring matchup, there will be plenty of opportunity for both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy to carry value this weekend. McCoy looked great in his first game as a Chief, taking 10 carries for a eye-catching 8.1 yards per carry. Could we see a resurgence of McCoy under Andy Reid? Reid is known as one of the fantasy RB whisperers. Damien Williams owners shouldn’t get discouraged, Williams was used heavily in the pass game. Catching 6 passes on 6 targets for 39 yards, and out-touched McCoy on the ground with 13 carries. With Tyreek Hill scheduled to miss a few weeks with a shoulder injury, Williams will see an uptick in passing targets. Boosting his value in PPR formats. Another positive for Williams owners, out of the 67 running back snaps for KC last week, Damien owned 67% of the snap share compared to McCoys 30%. McCoy should see an uptick in snaps with another week under his belt in KC, but it’s obvious that the Chiefs coaching staff still view Williams as the lead dog..for now. Darwin Thompson can be dropped in most formats. 

Sammy Watkins was a money maker for many in the DFS world, and hopefully you fired him up after I eluded to Watkins as a sneaky play in my week 1 Shootout vs Blowout article. Sammy exploded for 198 yards on 9 catches (team high 11 targets). Now with Tyreek Hill sidelined for 4-6 weeks, Watkins receives a huge bump in weekly value. View Watkins as a top 12 WR play until Hill returns. I expect Travis Kelce to bounce back after his “mild” outing down in Jacksonville. He received 8-targets, 2nd highest on the team, and was overthrown for a wide open TD when Mahomes was trying to show off a no-look pass. Hopefully he stops trying to force these type of throws, before he ends up tossing a couple of errant INTs.  The sneaky play out of this game is WR Mecole Hardman. Surprisingly overlooked in a lot of leagues waivers on Wednesday, Hardman offers huge upside in this Kansas City Chief offense until Hill returns. Don’t forget, the Chiefs traded up to draft Hardman during the time Tyreek Hill’s future was uncertain with his off field issues this summer. The coaching staff and front office clearly viewed him as a possible Hill replacement. I love Hardman in DFS and as a sneaky high upside flex play against Oakland in season long leagues. Don’t make me say I told you so!! Peep the wheels on Hardman….

 

The Blowout

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens

O/U 46.5 , BAL -13

Implied Score: BAL 29.5 – ARI 16.5

Avoiding the number 1 “blowout” New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-18.5), because there is little-to-no fantasy fruit to bare on the Miami side of the ball. Instead, Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens present a more exciting fantasy preview. 

The battle of the birds, two former 1st-round draft picks and high ceiling dual threat Quarterbacks clash in the Charm City. Tied for the 7th highest point total, and the 2nd largest point spread, plenty of fantasy fruit on both sides of the ball. 

If Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray can build off their 4th quarter comeback, this game has a chance to push the over. The Ravens demoralized the tanking Miami Dolphins in an expected blowout, but the Ravens Defense has a more formidable test this week. The Ravens lost a couple of defensive starters this offseason, and are dealing with a bevy of key injuries to their secondary. Murray attempted a NFL high 55 pass attempts in week 1, after entering the 4th quarter with a 17-6 deficit against the Lions. Murray led the Cardinals to 21 points in Q4 and OT. Rudy highlighted in the offseason, this KK Air-Raid offense employs a 4-wide set, giving ample opportunity to support 2-3 fantasy receivers. After a couple of tough matchups to start the season, look for this ‘Zona offense to heat up after this matchup. Their next 5 opponents, Carolina-Seattle-Cincinnatti-Atlanta-New York Giants. Hang tight to Kyler if you drafted him and check your waivers if your league mates abandon him if this game gets ugly against Bal. 

Hall-of-Famer, Larry Fitzgerald led ARI with 13 targets for 113 yards and 8 receptions. Second in targets was 2nd-year breakout candidate Christian Kirk, with 12. Followed by deeper league stash candidate, KeeSean Johnson (10). Fitzy and Kirk, ran primarily out of the slot and Johnson was the outside target. With a projected -13 point spread, expect Murray and these receivers to eat targets again this weekend. Fantasy Football does not discriminate against ‘garbage time’ points. Rudy projects both Fitz and Kirk to be top 26 WR plays. 

The strength of this Ravens defense is up front on the defensive line, keeping Kenyan Drake below 3.0 yards per carry and an embarrassing -0.2 ypc for Kalen Ballage. Game script forced MIA to abandon the run, tallying only 11 RB carries. We can see a similar situation develop with David Johnson if the Ravens establish their 13 point lead early against a bottom of the barrel Arizona defense. Johnson was still utilized heavily as Arizona trailed last week. In full point PPR leagues, Johnson can make up the low ceiling presented on the ground. He tied for 3rd in team targets last week, with 7. Rudy has Johnson finishing as RB12, with under 62 rushing yards and less than a 50% chance to score any TD. His receiving ability and usage protects his floor from bottoming out, but I’ll take the under for his projected RB12 finish. In redrafts don’t sit him, but he’s a fade in DFS. 

The week 1 QB #1, Lamar Jackson has the chance to become this years Patrick Mahomes with the value he is providing as a late round fantasy draft pick. Mike Vick 2.0 has another opportunity to top the leader board against this defense. Rudy projects Lamar to finish as QB3 (removing Newtown after his horrid TNF performance), falling behind only Mahomes and Watson. The Cardinalds defense allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 361 yards and 3TDs. Fire Jackson up in any and every league you can. 

A run first team, the Ravens ran for a league high 46 attempts in week 1. This is another prime spot of Mark Ingram to eat after averaging a staggering 7.6 yards per carry in week one on 14 carries, taking them for 107 and a TD. If the games gets out of hand early, expect for the Ravens to lean on the run game again to milk the clock. Gus Edwards proved to be the early down/goal line handcuff for Mark Ingram. Don’t read too much into his usage in week one, as Gus racked up the majority of his production in the second half when the game was out of reach for MIA. I expect this game to be closer over the course of the matchup. The coaching staff decided to wait and showcase their Justice Hill packages until a later date. Hill can be dropped in most 12-team leagues and smaller until we see movement in his snap counts. 

A top waiver wire add this week, rookie WR Hollwood Marquise Brown displayed his game breaking speed. Taking 4 catches for 147 yards and 2 TDs, on a team low 14 snaps/18% of the offensive snaps. This screams unsustainable, be careful putting him into your lineup this week and expecting similar production. Yes, he can take any catch to the house with his speed, but his usage suggest this as highly volatile and unreliable play. You can easily be staring at a zero on you fantasy roster. In a game where Vegas has the Ravens running away with this, the BAL receivers carry the risk of busting this week. The pass catcher to fire up this week is TE Mark Andrews. The Cardinals allowed rookie TE TJ Hockenson to post a NFL record setting 131 receiving yards in his NFL debut. ARI struggles against tight ends and Mark Andrews had the most targets for the Baltimore pass catchers last week (8). With Baltimore’s running tendencies, don’t get comfortable firing any receiver until we have a larger sample size of usage. 

Keep an eye out on twitter for this weeks 50/50 club. Leave your comments and feedback below. Good luck this week!

Projections provided by Razzball own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues. Best Value on the inter-web  Vegas odds and betting lines are sourced from www.vsin.com. Snap count and target share date sourced from www.fantasydata.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. David says:
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    Time to panic on Devonta Freeman? Would you trade your Devonta Freeman for Josh Jacobs?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      yes, yes, and more yes.thanks for the comment

  2. toolshed says:
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    Is ronald jones even worth holding at this point. It looked like he was going to see more work. Why won’t they give him a shot? How much worse can he be than barber? They spent a 2md rd pick on him. You’d figure he would have at least been given a fair chance to fail by now. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      man, this was a huge let down spot for Rojo after hiseffecient performance in week 1. unfortunately towards the end of the week, Arians doubled down on Barber as his “starting” running back and will continue to ride the hot hand. we could see a Rojo week next week and Barber put up a dud. Barber did whiff on a couple of pass pro assignments, that might get Rojo on the field more. depends on your bench and who’s on waivers but until we get a larger sample size it’s tough to know. based off weeks 1 usage and production it was logical to make him a waiver add, after last nights performance it makes it hard to stomach that analysis. i think you hang on to him for another week to see how this shakes out, unless someone else becomes available that presents more value. its only week 2.

  3. toolshed says:
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    Pick 2 .5ppr – lindsay, hockensen, latavius murray, AP. I dont like lindsay’s matchup at all plus he split with freeman 50/50. Bears had 10 days to get ready and den is on a short week.

    Would you cut Corey Davis to take a flyer on mecole hartman? Davis had 3 targets and 0 catches last week and they put up points. That doesn’t leave me feeling too good about him moving forward. He is a reserve wr for me. Thanks

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      im going Lindsay, we have projected to score the highest out of those 4 in.5 per with 11.57 fantasy points. I rather have Chris Thompson over Peterson, tough matchup for AP against Cowboys and most likely playing catchup this game. Murray is boom or bust. Hockensen showed the most promise, but just like Rojo very small sample size and we can see a huge swing from last weekend. We still have hockenson projected as the 2nd highest score out of the 4 name mentioned. im going lindsay and hockenson, looks like Stafford likes to target their 1st round pick.

      can’t panic on Davis yet, he was on the field a lot last week and was shadowed by one of the top corners in the league, Denzel Ward and didn’t need to pass much with this game out of hand at the end. Mecole hardman his a big risk reward play for this week, and is limited when Hill returns. sure Hardman can pop this weekend, but he easily can’t put up a dud. tough call but you can’t make a knee-jerk reaction just off week 1, especially when Davis’ snap count and routes ran where there, can’t just look at the box score…doesnt tell the whole story. think this was more tough CB matchup and game flow. lets see how week 2 plays out. i think the chiefs offense runs through Kelce/Watkins/Damien Williams/McCoy this weekend, making hardman the 3/4th option.

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        easily can** put up a dud (typo in my original comment)

        not saying Davis is going to go off, but giving davis one more week i think is the right thing to do. unless you are really deep at WR and are okay with dropping Davis and grabbing the boom/bust guy in hardman, thats value will tank in a month or so.

        • The Harrow says:
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          c.davis appears to be on the cooper career trajectory, one good season some crap just after it, then is finally good at some stage. both either the top or top 3 WR’s of their respective draft classes.

          • Nic Romero

            Nic Romero says:
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            yea, you hate to see it. change in coaching staff doesn’t help either. AJ Brown looked good in his limited action.

        • toolshed says:
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          Nic, thanks for answering both of my questions. Your responses were very thorough and well thought out. I appreciate your guidance.

          • Nic Romero

            Nic Romero says:
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            yes sir, anytime. thanks for your comments and good luck this weekend.

  4. Kevin says:
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    0.5 PPR. Would you trade your Kenyan Drake and Jimmy Graham for Dede Westbrook? I already have Kittle and I don’t think I’ll ever switch out Aaron Jones, Saquon, and Duke Johnson (out of 2 RB spots).

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      do you have any other RB depth? I understand that you’d never start drake over those three, at the moment, but what if one of them goes down. Drake/Miami didn’t look pretty last weekend but i think we need to see a larger sample size. in ppr Drake can carry value if Miami is having to pass a lot…which they are. i loved Dede heading into the season, but now with gardner minshew im holding on judgement if i want to keep him or trade for him. seemed like Gardner liked targeting the outside, Chark and Conley. i have a couple of shares of dede and am thinking about trading them away to be honest.

  5. And Now the Jon Lovitz Dancers! says:
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    super deep dynasty PPR. got an open spot. which of these better stash: d-wash (OAK) or wilkins? i’ll assume neither has any value till jacobs or mack get hurt of course.

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      I’m not the dynasty guy but my thoughts…i want the backup that has the older starting running back and starting back that has injury history, and which one has the most ppr upside. unfortunately in this situation both teams have their pass catching back (richard/hines). based off age and injury history of the starter, i think we go wilkins here.

  6. Yr Never Too Old For Balloons says:
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    have ben in one league, am now super weak at RB too though with guice out (they seriously claimed it wasn’t a tear that needed surgery for 3ish days then finally told the truth. what do these teams think they are gaining with these lies anyway?

    anywho probably could both use RB depth now (will have issues in bye weeks already, one more injury and i’m just done, have guice in the IR slot now) and backup for when ben goes on road and looks like that.
    QB ben
    RB (2) AAron, jacobs, both MIA guys (man it’d be nice if they just let drake play, but we’re now on regime 4 consecutive at MIA that refuses to use their best RB as a starter (l.miller/drake), mostert
    WR (2) lockett (return yards worth half scrimmage), adams, kupp, sutton, j.brown
    TE (1) kittle (at least i’m set here)
    1 flex
    IR guice

    RB options: ty mont (maybe bell is already f’d), hines, ito, both my OAK/GB handcuffs are out there, burkhead, gore, j.jax

    QB options: (games that ben has on road are listed here)
    week 3:
    jimmy g vs PIT
    allen vs CIN
    murray vs CAR

    week 5 (ben at home but it’s vs BAL)
    jimmy G vs CLE
    dalton vs ARI
    allen @ TEN
    murray @ CIN

    week 6:
    keenum @ MIA (if he’s still starting by then)
    murray vs ATL
    jimmy G @ LAR
    fitz vs WAS (if he’s still starting by then)

    week 7 (ben bye)
    keenum vs SF
    allen vs MIA
    murray @ NYG

    have since added j.allen (he seems to have the best week 3 matchup), hold ballage (since i have drake) and mostert or go with another of those listed RB’s?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      i love Ben this week. sucks about Guice, had him in a few spots where i went zero-rb so i feel you brother.

      i think you can survive with current RB depth, like mostert with Coleman out. i think Burkhead or JJackson would be the adds.

      QB options: i like Allen in a lot of spots this year. can ride Allen for week 3 & 5. but Dalton is interesting in week 5 if the pass usage remains. Murray is a great roster hold if he is on waivers, his matchups get really juicy after this week, as i mentioned above in my article. definitely murray in week 6. between allen and murray week 5-6.

      i think im good with letting go of ballage to be honest. hold drake and mostert, let go of drake.

      good luck and thank you for the comment.

  7. aardvark says:
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    Just got an offer of my Rodgers and Sutton for his Damien Williams and Corey Davis?

    Also got one for my Sutton for his duke johnson? Both from the same person.

    Would you accept one of these? I’m thinking maybe try and get Singletary instead?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      definitely NO to the first option. depends on your receiver depth and need at RB. are you good with letting sutton go? dont make a trade just for the sake of it. but yea, i think i like Singletary over duke, but both options provide upside in PPR leagues.

  8. Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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    14 team PPR, best use of an open spot while a.wilson is out.
    QB (1) newton, jimmer G
    RB (2) carson, d-will, thompson, singletary, gio B, m.davis
    WR (3): JJSS, AB, j.brown, sutton, c.davis (just added on the cheap after one bad week and was dropped, in a 14 teamer)
    TE (1): oj howard (not THIS usage is scaring me)
    1 flex
    IR (2) a.wilson

    options:
    WR: parker (finally gonna get some targets now), beasley, chark, k.johnson, quinn
    TE: VD (reed might be braindead now), one of the CIN or DAL guys, dissly, hurst, gesicki
    RB: ogun, gore, lots of straight up backups, guice (also could obtain by tomorrow and IR stash first, in fact that’s a near freeroll play).

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      eifert or uzomah have upside if CIN keeps throwing the ball like they did. VD for this week if Reed is out but you might have already started OJ on TNF..

      i think id rather have Guice in my IR than albert wilson. That being said, with Albert out and the offense expected to pass HEAVY every game because of negative game script, then Gesicki is interesting. definitely flashed in pre season and its a new england coaching staff (history of TE usage).

      Beasely has a nice floor with the amount of targets he’s getting in PPR leagues but i just dont think he has a huge ceiling. KeeSean Johnson as a pure upside guy, that offense might open up in the next couple of weeks as i mentioned above in the article. need to see how Chark does in week 2 with Minshew and a tougher better defensive opponent.

      good luck and thanks for the comment.

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        oh yea, forgot to ask. favorite kind of cheese?

        • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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          it’s a simpsons joke:
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZUKEVU-TwM

          i surely did start oj howard already.

          2 IR slots so tomorrow could add guice, add him to the other one, leave a.wilson in one for now, then add another WR or TE after.

          • Nic Romero

            Nic Romero says:
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            hahah nice,, still have to answer the question.

            sounds like a good plan. thanks again

            • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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              oh, thought you were kidding as to that. not sure, there are SOOOO many cheeses, and i’ve not even been to france to even have a real idea how right i am with that statement. a like goat cheese a lot, but generally can’t eat too much of it at a time, it’s so salty if i eat too much. high end cheddars are good. brie’s ok, too rich to eat too much at a time. provel (a mix of cheddar/provalone/swiss popular in STL only pizzas which i don’t think mostly exists anywhere else, just checked, actually invented in STL in 1947) is pretty good, at least for pizzas.

              – actually just looked this up, i always thought feta (what i was calling goat cheese above) WAS goat cheese, turns out i’m wrong it’s usually sheep cheese. now i’m also seeing in the u.s. feta is also sometimes made from cow milk, pretty sure technically it’s not supposed to be though, and likely only is since unlike in europe we have far more cows here than goats (also goats don’t produce milk year round)

              • Nic Romero

                Nic Romero says:
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                Amsterdam has some damn good cheese/cheese shops. big blue cheese guy, love super sharp cheddars too. real goat cheese is good but acquired taste, very raunchy smell and I can only stand maybe a bite. ha, convo about cheese on a football post. good stuff, and good luck this week man.

  9. Wywy says:
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    Ppr keeper league with no IR

    Drop Guise and pick up Justice Hill?

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      yes, if you plan to keep hill on your roster all season to “keep” for next year. thanks for the comment.

  10. miles proudfoot says:
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    At flex, would you start J White or A Robinson?

    Off the wire, D Thomas or AJ Brown?

    Thanks!

    • miles proudfoot says:
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      Or Chark is also available

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        thats a tough one. def no to Chark. i’m assuming full point PPR? we have White projected 12.66 and Robinson 12.50. i lean towards Robinson here, because with the expected blowout against MIA white’s role is more at risk of being diminished if NE doesn’t need to pass the ball much and they run Michel/Burkhead/Harris on the ground. we at least know for sure ARob will get his targets as the #1 option in CHI.

  11. Kenny J Powers says:
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    Great article nic! I’ve got a couple questions for a 12-team ppr:
    1. Rank these 3 qbs for this week- Stafford,dalton,Trubisky
    2. Is Aaron Jones a sell if he has a good game this week? I was high on him coming into the season, but seems like jamaal is gonna eat into his workload.
    3. Justice Hill or Burkhead for end of bench rb stash?

    Thanks for your time

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      1. Dalton, Staff, Trubisky
      2. i have Jones in a lot of spots and think it’ll lighten up for him after a tough start to the season. Im not that worried about Jamaal, think that was just a result of the crappy game against Chicago. sure, williams will be used but don’t think it’ll keep jones away from a top RB play. but if you want to get rid Jones, just depends on what you can get in return if its RB1/WR1 caliber talent.
      3. im going with Justice Hill. Burkhead will be volatile week 2 week, even though he will provide more value early on. Ingram has a history of missing a couple of games here and there, and i dont think we’ve really seen how BAL is going to utilize Hill yet in the passing game. didn’t need to waste him or the plays against a blowout in MIA.

      thanks for the feedback and comment, Kenny….

      “I’ve been blessed with many things in this life: an arm like a damn rocket, a cock like a Burmese python, and the mind of a fucking scientist. So people often ask me, Kenny, what are your weaknesses? Do you have any? I would say that my biggest flaw, my Achilles heel, is my tireless work ethic.” -KJP

      • Kenny J Powers says:
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        Ok thanks for the advice and especially for talking me off the ledge with jones. Looking forward to the next article.

        “I got two hard rules I live by, Pop: I don’t fuck with the devil, and I never do tag-teams with blood relatives. Take it easy, old man.” -kjp

        • Nic Romero

          Nic Romero says:
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          thanks. have you kept up with the new McBride project, The Righteous Gemstones? classic Mcbride!

          • Kenny J Powers says:
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            You sir have my eternal gratitude for bringing this to my attention. I somehow missed hearing anything about this, so I’ll definitely have to catch up on it. Devine and goggins being involved is just icing on the cake, but honestly I could watch Danny McBride read a newspaper and find it hilarious. Thanks for the tip!

            • Nic Romero

              Nic Romero says:
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              aren’t you glad you didn’t give up on Jones!!!!

              • Kenny J Powers says:
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                Fur sure!

Comments are closed.