Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues. Best Value on the inter-web. As in-season trades start to heat up, make sure to utilize Razzball’s FREE custom trade analyzer

Vegas odds and betting lines sourced from www.vsin.com. Player/Team stats and news sourced from www.fantasydata.com. Air yards data pulled from www.airyards.com

The Shootout

To avoid writing in-depth about the Kansas City Chiefs for a 4th week in a row, this week will focus on the 2nd highest projected point total, TB @ LAR.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions carries the highest point total for week 4 at 54.5. Another episode of Oprah Winfrey giving away TDs to everyone in the audience. Kerryon Johnson is a clear start after KC was torched by Mark Ingram, and the release of CJ Anderson. Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr. are all starts this week. TJ Hockensen is a viable TE play, and Mecole Hardman/Demarcus Robinson remain flex plays. If Damien Williams is sidelined again, then Darrel Williams is a RB3/Flex with RB2 upside. Follow KC’s injury/practice reports regarding LeSean McCoy’s health status and Damien’s knee. Darwin Thompson remains only a deeper league bench stash, not worth rostering in most formats until his pathway to usage and opportunity increase.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

O/U 49 , LAR -10 (favorites)

Implied Score: LAR 29.5 – TB 19.5

Poor @Razzball_MB, Buccanneer fans suffered a gut shot delivered by Danny Dimes (Daniel Jones), in a heroic 4th quarter comeback for the G-Men. Jameis went into halftime with a 28-10 lead only to be outscored 22-3 in the final 2 quarters. Luckily, the outcome of the game had no affect on Jameis and Mike Evans’ fantasy production. QB8 over the past 2 weeks, Jameis Winston should be rostered in all leagues and is flirting with weekly start status..but wait until after this weeks tough matchup against the Los Angeles Rams secondary. Rudy projects Jameis outside of the top 20. After allowing 27 points in week 1 (preseason 2.0), the Rams D/ST unit has only allowed 11.00 points per game over their last two matchups. Limiting opposing QBs under 185 passing yards in every game this season. Jameis is a bench stash for now, but his schedule is favorable in the coming weeks. In the 2nd highest point total for the weekend and potential shootout (9.5 point underdogs), if “good” Jameis shows up, Winston is a viable 2-QB league start and start worthy in 1-QB leagues for those suffering from the losses of Luck, Roethlisberger, Foles and Brees.. only IF your waivers are decimated. Check out Rudys weekly projections to see the 26 QBs that are projected ahead of Jameis this week. 

Mike Evans cashed in on his, team leading, air yards heading into his week 3 bout against the NYG. His buy-low trade window has been slammed shut after Sundays 45-point performance. WR2 in total air yards on the season, and leading TB WR2 Chris Godwin by 212 air yards, Evans is a must start for most 12-team leagues. For those that employed a zero-RB strategy, you might have the top heavy WR depth to stomach sitting Evans this week. LAR D/ST secondary unit has not allowed any receiver to exceed 89 receiving yards and surrendered 0 receiving TDs to WRs (1 rec TD to a RB), including matchups against top WR talent (Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel). Chris Godwin led the Bucs in snap %, finding the field for 96% of TBs offensive snaps, to Evans 88%. Look for a bounce back game from Godwin as Evans is more likely to come back down to earth after receiving coverage from Rams top CB, Aqib Talib. Razzball has Evans projected at WR12 (15.89 PPR points) and Godwin WR36 (12.13). 3rd on the team in snap % (81) and TE13 in air yards, O.J. Howard has been a bust this fantasy season. Projected outside of the top 15 at the position this week, and averaging an uninspiring 3 targets per game, Howard is merely a force start at a position that is a barren wasteland. Look to see if SEA TE Will Dissly is available in your leagues or the other TE projected ahead of him this week.

(Note: Chris Godwin is on the injury report and didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday)

Unfortunately, the weekly see-saw in fantasy production between Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones is a headache for fantasy owners. In a fantasy world where relying on RBBC fantasy production is the new norm and high drafted RBs are underperforming, Peyton Barber is currently RB28 on the season followed by Jones at RB39. Barber led again in snap % (barely) last week 36% to Jones’ 30%, even though Jones out-touched and out-produced Barber. Will Arians back down from his ‘hot hand’ and eventually turn this backfield over to Jones? Too muddy to fire up either back with weekly confidence. Both Barber and Jones are projected outside of the top 38 in PPR scoring this weekend. If you have no other option, here is the silver lining …Minus a matchup against a Brees-less Saints, this Rams unit has displayed vulnerabilities on the ground. Giving up 128 rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey in week 1 and 96 yards (4.2 ypc) to Nick Chubb in week 3. Placing CMC and Chubb in the same breath as Barber/Jones is disrespectful…

This is the game where Jared Goff pays off the ‘wait on a QB’ truthers, with the ultimate get right spot at home, with the 2nd highest point total, and -9.5 favorites. Surprisingly, this Bucs defense under DC Todd Bowles has proven to be difficult to run on. Limiting opposing backs to 3.1 ypc (SF), 2.1 ypc (CMC), 3.8 (NYG), this defense funnels to the passing game.  The Bucs got torched by Danny Dimes, allowing two Giants to have over 100 yards receiving, and over 290 passing yards to Greg Olsen, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel via a broken Cam Newton. I don’t need to convince you to start Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kuppboth are no brainers. Along with Goff, this is a get right spot for Robert Woods. Leading both Kupp and Cooks in snap % and 2nd in team targets, Woods is an interesting buy-low trade target. Rudy has Woods projected as WR16 this week, in a game that projects LAR to score 4+ TDs.  Gerald Everett is an interesting streamer against a TB Defense that has hemorrhaged 113 yds/6 rec/1 TD to TE Evan Engram and 110/6/0 to Old Man Greg Olsen. Tampa is vulnerable at TE and at a position of dire need for many fantasy owners, Everett should be considered (Rudys PPR TE14).  

Even with a discouraging rushing matchup, with the Rams a -9.5 favorite and a tough matchup for turnover prone Jamies Crab Leg Winston, Todd Gurley is a viable start regardless of his uninspiring start. Malcolm Brown is seeing less than 30% of offensive snaps to Gurley’s healthy 69.5%, and out-touched 6.6 carries per game to Gurley’s 14.6. Keep Gurley in your lineups, Rudy projects him to finish this week as RB15 with a 56% chance of finding pay-dirt (7th highest of any RB in week 4).

The Blowout

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Miami Dolphins (0-3)

O/U 43.5 , LAC -16 (favorites)

Implied Score: LAC 29.5 – MIA 14

Both LA teams get shine this week, as the Los Angeles Chargers make the cross country trek to play the tanking Miami Dolphins, carrying the highest point spread in week 4. 

Rudy’s #7 QB in week 4, Philip Rivers goes up against a Miami Defense that is allowing a staggering 44.33 points per game, an average of 6 TDs per game, and 281.3 passing yards per game. This is a great streaming spot for Philip and Co., the Miami Dolphins have surrendered fantasy QB1 (wk 1 Lamar Jackson), QB 4 (wk 2 Tom Brady), and QB7 (wk 3 Dak Prescott) finishes through 3 weeks of the NFL season. Even with top CB Xavien Howard in coverage, opposing WR1 have feasted against this Fins secondary unit. Allowing Amari Cooper 88 rec yds/6 rec/2 TD, Antonio Brown 56/4/1, and Marquise Brown 147/4/2. Hunter Henry remains sidelined and Mike Williams popped up on the injury report, missing practice this week with a back issue after being limited last week with a knee injury. Keenan Allen is a safe bet WR1 in PPR formats. Allen leads the Chargers in snap % (88%), and owned a massive target share last week (53%), and for the season (58%). Allen is Rudys overall WR1 in fantasy in week 4. If Mike Williams is able to suit up, then he a can be used as a WR3/Flex with WR2 upside…projected WR33 this weekend. 

While the fantasy world is up in arms about Melvin Gordon reporting back with the Chargers, Austin Ekeler is presented with a juicy matchup as -16 point road favorites. The MIA D/ST is averaging 208 rushing yards allowed on the ground, which includes a game where QB Lamar Jackson only rushed for 6 total yards. Best case scenario for Gordon owners is that he returns for week 5 action, but do not expect a full work load. Similar to Zeke, we can expect a 1-2 week period where Gordon is eased back into the offense. Ekeler owners, do not panic! Ekeler finished 2018 as a top 25 RB in PPR formats, with Gordon playing almost a full season and Ekeler missed two games. Ekeler’s role from last year is his floor, with Gordon returning and Ekeler producing don’t be surprised if this becomes more of an even time share between the two. Justin Jackson is an interesting cheap buy in DFS slates this weekend ($4,100 on Draftkings), in a game where LAC can avoid wearing down their starters after jumping out to an early lead. Backup Dallas Cowboys RB, Tony Pollard, posted 103 rushing yards and scored a rushing TD in a game where Ezekiel Elliot ran for 125 yards.

For the first time this season, the Dolphins offense recorded over 200 passing yards with former first round pick Josh Rosen getting his first start in Miami. The Chargers pass defense is trending in the wrong direction after allowing 351 passing yards to the Houston Texans in week 3 and 245 passing yards the prior week to Matthew Stafford and the Lions. Top LAC CB Casey Hayward did miss practice earlier this week and worth monitoring his availability for game time. Expecting to play catchup, Josh Rosen is a desperation start as -16 home dogs. Relying on garbage time fantasy production is hard way to live. Rosen did look to rookie WR Preston Williams way early and often, Preston racked up 12 targets and recorded 4 receptions for 68 yards against the Cowboys. Williams is a dynasty and deeper league stash for now, until we see if this offense can stabilize under Josh Rosen. Devante Parker leads this wideout group in snaps, but finds himself trailing the rookie in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Preston is Rudys WR35 this week and Parker finds himself outside of the top 50 at the position. 

 

Leave your feedback and questions below in the comments. As always, you can find me on twitter. Good luck in week 4!

 

 

 

 

  1. Charles Parton says:
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    What’s it look like for starting Rex Burkhead as a flex?

    • Charles Parton says:
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      And. Is it worth stashing the eagles defense dor their dolphins matchup if i am streaming defense?

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        they don’t play Miami for another 8 weeks. i would not “stash” a d/st for a matchup 8 weeks from now. but i do think if Sam Darnold is out again next week then the Eagles D/St will be a viable streaming option.

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      he is a viable flex option this week based off his recent usage, BUT it is the NE patriots and their weekly RB usage can give everyone nightmares. especially with James white returning. but there are worse options out there. in full point PPR, Rudy has Rex projected as RB9 for the week, which i do think is slightly high but his usage this year makes it a projection that is possible and if Rudy is right then he’ll be a great flex play this weekend.

  2. T Cole Anderson says:
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    12 Team QB 6pt TD 1Pt/20 yards -2 int

    Start Rivers or Russell Wilson I have not done a good job picking between the 2 this year.

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      too bad its not a two QB league, would love to start both. I think I would go wilson here.. rushing upside and that game has a potential to be a shootout too with ARI high paced offense and both have terrible secondaries. IF LAC gets ahead early they could just lean on the run game to burn the clock. Wilson over Rivers this week. good luck and thanks for commenting.

      • T Cole Anderson says:
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        My thoughts as well and thank you for giving me your advice.

  3. toolshed says:
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    Well I own henry and mcdonald. Should i cut mcdonald and add whitten, doyle, akins, Knox, eiffert instead. Pit plays mnf and I am in a bad spot. .5 ppr. He didnt practice yesterday. How long do I wait? Thx

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      man thats a tough one. the fact that PIT traded for a TE says something but Henry’s injury is longer term, Mcdonalds week-to-week. i don’t recommend rostering 2 TE that are injured. i would drop both..but if you are stuck on keeping one..its seems like McDonald has the better chance to return in the coming weeks.

      Knox is an interesting streamer this week with TE Tyler Kroft listed inactive for the week and top Pats DB Gillmore most likely to shadow John Brown and either McCourty brother to cover Beasely. Knox might be the guy to get free for some action. witten has been a RZ monster, but you can’t expect a lot of ppr or yardage points from Witten. Just praying for him to get into the end zone. with TY Hilton “doubtful” for this weekend, that boost Doyle path to opportunity. i think its between those three. Witten if you are confident he finds the end zone. Doyle might be the better PPR play with Knox a high risk/high reward start.

      id rank them doyle, witten, knox

  4. toolshed says:
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    Who would you start at flex. All have good matchups. Justin jackson, Metcalf or marvin jones. .5 ppr. Thanks

    • toolshed says:
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      Well jackson is now out and was spotted with a walking boot. Is he now droppbable with gordon back. Gordon wont be ready this week to play, right?

      • Nic Romero

        Nic Romero says:
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        yea, i totally agree with dropping Jackson. they say Gordon “might” play but dont expect it to be much if he is able to find the field. they have him currently on a two-week temporary exempt list, so they’d have to take Gordon off of that list and release someone on their roster for him to play this weekend. that’s tough between metcalf or marvin, both are at 19 targets for the season and almost identical in snap numbers. rudy has Jones ahead of Metcalf by roughly 1 point in half PPR. for now i lean slightly in Marvins direction, but its close. I love Russell this weekend and DET will be in a shootout with MAhomes and Company. I think SEA has a better chance of holding a lead in their matchup versus ARI, which would turn to more running plays to milk the clock. DET is less likely to hold a lead which will force them to continue throwing the rock until the final whistle blows. good luck and thanks for the comment.

  5. toolshed says:
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    Thanks for the feedback. I have henry on IR so I dont have to cut him. Eiffert plays mnf and I could add him if mcdonald doesn’t play. Eiffert also plays az next week who hasn’t stopped any te this year. What do you think? Or would tu ou prefer one of the other guys you listed. I am going to claim herndon next week

    • Nic Romero

      Nic Romero says:
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      I have Eifert in tonight as well. just need him and boyd to outscore Mixon. will you be with me?

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