Week 2 Review

In the interest of full disclosure I’m going to review some of my good and bad calls each week. I have no shame in admitting when I’ve made a bad call — if I was right 100% of the time I’d be living like Biff Tannen!

Good Calls:

Start Philip Rivers: 17.9 points

Sit Isaiah Crowell: 3.7 points

Sit Pierre Garcon: 5.6 points

Sit Patriots D/ST: -2 points

 

Bad Calls:

Start Jared Goff: 10.9 points

Sit Carlos Hyde: 17.3 points

Sit Dez Bryant: 18.9 points

Sit Travis Kelce: 24.3 points

Week 2 had some mixed results, but I’m confident in my start/sit picks for this week:

 

Quarterbacks:

Start:

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 35.5%: Big Ben has 2 TD’s in each of his first two games and that trend is going to continue in his week 3 matchup against da Bears. The Bears boast (is that the right word?) one of the league’s worst secondaries and Ben will know exploit that. And with weapons like Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown and Jesse James running routes out there 330+ yards and 3+ TDs is a lock.

Jay Cutler, MIA, 1.5% starting: The ultimate gunslinging QB, Cutler finds himself in a great matchup against the New York Football Jets. The Jets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs out of the teams that played 2 games. Jay Ajayi is going to get 125+ yards against the Jets which will open up a lot of solid passing opportunities for Cutler as NY works to contain anyone wearing teal and orange. If you like offense this is going to be a fun game to watch…unless you’re a Jets fan.

Sit:

Russell Wilson, SEA, 73.2%: Russ was my fantasy bust pick for 2017 so I hope he continues to struggle so I look like a genius! Sorry y’all. He hasn’t surpassed 200 yards yet, only has 1 TD and is bound to get injured at some point with that league worst offensive line. The Titans aren’t a fantastic defense, but neither were the Packers and 49ers and they limited Wilson in week 1 and 2 respectively. Start speculating on a new QB, because Russell is going to let you down.

Marcus Mariota, TEN, 43.3%: Across the field from Wilson you should avoid Mariota as well. Second week in a row I’m telling you to sit Mariota. Last week he scored 13 points which was 19th among QBs.  The Seahawks have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. In week 1 they held the best QB, Aaron Rodgers, to 16.5 fantasy points and Mariota is obviously no Rodgers.

 

Running Backs:

Start:

Theo Riddick, DET, 15.7%: Ameer Abdullah might be the RB1 in Detroit, but Riddick is the #1 pass-catching RB for the Lions. Their week 3 matchup is against the Falcons who have allowed the 4th highest receiving yards to running backs this year. In 2016 they allowed the most receiving yards to running backs. In PPR leagues if you need a deep flex option — count on Riddick.

Matt Forte, NYJ, 12.7%: Don’t shy away from the Dolphins matchup here — they may have limited the Chargers Melvin Gordon to 13 rushing yards and 1 TD in his week 2 game against them, but he made up for it with 7 catches for 65 yards for 20.8 fantasy points. In 2016, the Dolphins allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the NFL. Forte seems to be the lead dog in the Jets backfield so he could have a nice game against the Dolphins.

Derrick Henry, TEN, 8.5%: Don’t be afraid of the Seahawks run defense. Last week Carlos Hyde got 17.3 fantasy points on 124 rushing yards against the Seahawks. In week 1, Ty Montgomery scored 19.3 points against the Seahawks. I’m predicting the Seahawks will minimize the Titans passing game leaving Henry free to run wild.

Sit:

Saints RBs: For one, this backfield is a dysfunctional mess. Two, the Panthers have allowed only 70 total rushing yards against Carlos Hyde and Lesean McCoy, two superior running backs to anyone the Saints can run out there this year. Three, I’ve over-estimated how much I have to say about why you shouldn’t start the Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson or Alvin Kamara

Jordan Howard, CHI, 94%: He’s healthy and going to start for the Bears so that’s not the issue here. No, what concerns me is that their week 3 opponent, the Steelers, have only allowed 127 rushing yards in 2017. The younger Watt brother and a healthy trio of Cam Heyward, Stephon Truitt and Javon Hargrave should limit Howard’s running game. Tarik Cohen is going to see a lot of snaps as a pass-catcher for the Bears.

 

Wide Receivers

Start:

Devante Parker/Jarvis Landry, MIA: I’m going to pair these two with my recommendation of Jay Cutler. The Jets haven’t allowed many receiving yards (202) this season, but are near the top for receiving TD’s allowed with 5. Cutler is going to air it out in this game with at least 3 deep TD passes past the Jets sad secondary — 2 to Landry and 1 to Parker.

DeSean Jackson, TB, 20.6%: DeSean only logged 39 yards in his first game of 2017, but now faces a Vikings defense that has allowed a 7th most 375 receiving yards to wide receivers this year. All-Pro Mike Evans is going to draw one of the league’s best shut-down cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes which could lead to Jackson getting more attention from Jameis Winston. I’m predicting 70+ yards and a TD from Jackson — not bad from your Flex.

Kenny Britt, CLE, 3.3%: Really Klug? A guy with 15 receiving yards on the season? With Corey Coleman now out for two weeks, Britt is going to get more looks. Yes, Rashard Higgins is going to get his share of passes as well considering he is second to Coleman with 11 targets from Deshone Kizer, but Britt needs to take advantage of this matchup against one of the league’s worst pass defenses: the Colts have allowed the most receiving yards so far in 2017. If he doesn’t, ignore him for the rest of the year and forget you ever read this!

Sit:

Odell Beckham Jr., NYG, 97.8%: I’ve been saying this since the Giants signed Brandon Marshall and drafted Evan Engram — you can give Eli all the weapons in the world, but if he can’t get comfortable in the pocket, it won’t mean a thing. Also, my professional medical opinion is that OBJ isn’t 100% yet. Plus, with the lack of throws his way will turn him into a pouty child again which should really make the NY media’s week! The Eagles might not have a great secondary, but their d-line is one of the best in the league. You can figure this one out yourselves folks, elite d-line plus pathetic o-line equals terrible offensive performance.

Brandin Cooks, NE, 94.3%: Cooks should be among the leaders in receptions, yards and TDs with Tom Brady as his QB but so far he’s been a disappointment. 5 total receptions for 125 yards and 0 TDs is not what you want from your WR1. Plus this week, he Texans elite defensive front line is going to be thirsting for some Brady blood. They’re also hoping to keep their position as the team that has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards. Cooks will eventually click with Brady, because how can’t he? Brady throws one of the most perfect balls of all time. Sit him this week — he’ll be find by the end of the season.

 

Tight Ends

Start:

Jack Doyle, IND, 41.9%: I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong — I had Doyle as a sit last week facing off against a Cardinals team that allowed the fewest yards to tight ends in 2016. He proceeded to score the 6th most fantasy points among tight ends. This week, Doyle faces the Browns who have allowed the most points to tight ends in 2017. He’ll totally redeem himself.

Jared Cook, OAK, 9.2%: Cook’s week 3 opponent, the Redskins have allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends in 2017. With Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Cook, Derek Carr has three phenomenal weapons that will cause fits for opposing defenses to cover all three leaving Cook open for 60 yards and a play-action red zone TD.

Sit:

Rob Gronkowski, NE, 99.4%: Another swing for the fences pick, Gronk is suffering through an injured groin which should limit him in his week 3 game against the Texans. Plus, he’s facing a Texans defense who have only allowed 60 total receiving yards to tight ends so far this season. This Pats/Texans matchup might be the most interesting game of the week to watch.

Jordan Reed, WAS, 95.7%: Second time Reed is making his appearance as a sit recommendation this year (he scored 8.6 points.) Originally he was struggling with a potentially broken toe, now he’s got chest and shoulder issues and it isn’t even certain if he’ll start. If he does start and rises above his injuries, he has a nice matchup against the Raiders who can’t contain big tight ends, but I think he’ll try and start, but the pain will be too much for him and he’ll be limited.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Start:

Eagles, 8.4%: Please read my Odell Beckham blurb for why I think you should start the Eagles D. TL;DR: Eagles D-Line>>>>>>>>Giants O-Line.

Sit:

Panthers, 77.4%: Panthers have only allowed 6 points so far this season and should win this game, but Drew Brees is going to get his at some point in the game. He already has 632 passing yards and 3 TDs. They’re going to be throwing from behind and might get a few lucky breaks.

 

Kickers

Start:

Graham Gano, CAR, 13.9%: The Panthers are going to tear up the Saints league-worst defense leading to a solid PAT floor for Gano. Gano is 6 for 6 in field goals, but none of them have gone for longer than 40 yards. That trend is going to continue this week because Cam and the Panthers are going to continue to get Gano short field position.

Sit:

Dustin Hopkins, WAS, 91.4%: Hopkins is starting at a high clip for someone who can’t really hit the long ball — he’s 5 for 12 in his career at FG attempts over 50 yards. His week 3 opponent, the Redskins, have been struggling offensively so far this year which limits the amount of points Hopkins can get you.

  1. Bobby the water boy says:
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    Good morning jay!! Man oh man it’s finally Friday!!

    .5 PPR league
    My RBs are Gordon, hunt, mcaffery, Carson, Chris Johnson, chark west. Lost DJ sad face

    My WRs are (we start 3, could be 4 w/ flex) Keenan, Alshon, d Parker, martavis Bryant, Golladay, snead, Marshall, hogan.

    QB Winston

    — based on my WRs & RBs above would you package Abdullah + Golladay to receive tyreek hill?

    –what about dealing either my martavis Bryant or Parker for kelce?

    — lastly what about dealing my Abdullah for Jonathan Stewart? I know not huge huge moves but maybe they could help my depth?

    —-
    ROS how do you like Melvin Gordon?
    Would you trade Gordon straight up for any of these RBs if you like better ROS over Gordon?
    – McCoy? Davante Freeman? Ajayi? Fournette?
    Or what about trying my martavis Bryant + Gordon for zeke Elliot? Same thing another owner has bell I could offer Gordon + alshon . Or Gordon + Parker + m Bryant for his bell + Larry Fitzgerald?

    Basically if I’m dealing Gordon I want a top tier RB , this is for ROS not just week 3, I also have no issue standing pat.

    This is a small 10 teamer but our bench is deep!! It had 9 bench slots & 2 IR spots. I wanted to add & stream Wentz this week but a league mate added Wentz last night . I have no issue starting my Jameis Winston but a lil iffy since it’s in Minnesota & that’s a tougher D I’m weary on playing Winston, well I do like that Winston potentially will have more opportunities to throw maybe it’ll be a back / fourth game , I know the game vs bears Winston didn’t need to throw a ton of TDs because how big the lead was thanks to the defense.

    – if I do stream this week here are available options:
    Trevor Siemien (@ Buff)

    Cutler (@ jets)

    — Brandon Marshall or Winston would be the for the stream QB

    If I don’t stream a QB I could drop Marshall for either decker, Terrence Williams, Lockett, Paul Richardson I know that list isn’t the best! Lol

    I know j Reed is a Game time decision, I don’t own Reed but thoughts of Vernon Davis’s upside if Reed is out

    Gracias in advance Kerry KluuuuuuuuuuG! The notorious K-E-R-R-Y!

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Bobby the water boy:
      That’s not a bad offer for Hill if your trade partner needs a RB.

      If you are desperate for a TE you could offer Bryant for Kelce.

      Abdullah for Stewart is really a push for me.

      I’d stick with Gordon — really it is so hard to pick between those guys. NFL.com says that out of those RBs Fournette has the easiest strength of schedule. For whatever that is worth.

      I’d keep bryant and gordon. Gordon and Alshon for Bell isn’t a bad offer if you think you survive the WR hit. I’d see if you can get a low end WR4-5 with upside with Bell.

      I’d hang onto Marshall and start Winston for now. Over the course of the season he’ll be better than Siemian and Cutler. And Marshall should be better than those options.

      I like Davis this week if Reed sits. But I don’t think Reed sits.

  2. Allan says:
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    A few questions.
    1. Streaming Miami D right now but would you prefer Eagles D?
    2. Perkins is my RB 4. Would you drop him to pick up Rawls, Bernard, or Charles in a full point ppr?
    3. Stafford or Brady this week? Can’t believe I’m asking that.
    Thanks

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Allan:
      1.) Really can’t go wrong with either one. Jets have less weapons so less chance for surprises.
      2.) Yes — I’d give Bernard a shot.
      3.) Boy, I might start Stafford just because of the Texans D. Pats will still win but it just won’t be pretty.

  3. Mike says:
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    Don’t have a choice but to play cooks. Half PPR ROS, can you rank cooks, Hopkins and Adams?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Mike:
      For week 3: Hopkins, Cooks, Adams

  4. Tim says:
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    Morning!
    .5 PPR Rawls was dropped in my league thoughts of adding Rawls? I do own Carson so atleast there’s that , I do add Rawls I feel it’s a more speculative add. Thank you

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Tim: eh — I wouldn’t add Rawls. What are the other options?

  5. Beef jerky says:
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    Kendall Wright – Serviceable in a 12 team 1 ppr league ?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Beef jerky: Yea definitely. Do you already have him and are thinking about starting him or are you thinking about adding him?
      You should definitely add him. Start him? Ehhh–maybe in flex this week.

  6. steve stevenson says:
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    0.5 ppr bench stash: Funchess, Rishard Matthews or Kearse?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @steve stevenson: In order: Matthews, Kearse, Funchess.

  7. Callmejayp says:
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    What’s do you think about this trade I would give up devonte freeman and moncrief for aj green and Derrick Henry

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Callmejayp: Without knowing your roster construction I say: Go for it! Moncrief is the worst player in that trade.

  8. Henry Muto says:
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    Sure I will sit Beckham my 1st round pick………..do you think I am loaded with options or something where I can sit Beckham ? Philly pass DF is hurting. So your telling me if I own Britt and Beckham I should start Britt over Beckham ? I am going with Beckham over Britt we will see if your right and I wrong come Sunday night.

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Henry Muto: haha yea. Thanks for the feedback — I might’ve gotten too big for my britches.

  9. Henry Muto says:
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    Sit Gronk ? Ok sure………………….wow. So I am sitting Beckham my 1st round pick and Gronk my 2nd round pick and I picking up a guy off the waiver wire I guess to play over Gronk. Let me see how this one works out for you.

    • steve stevenson says:
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      @Henry Muto: Yo Hank meth makes you aggro. Hope you draft better next year.

      • Henry Muto says:
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        @steve stevenson:

        Sure draft better I took Beckham and Gronk…oh by the way go google Henry Muto fantasy football maybe you will see I finishde 1st and 4th in the NFFC and won $112,000 I finished 1st in RTS in 2014 won $200,000 and nearly won RTS again in 2015 finished 2nd place.

        Ok though let me try and draft better cleary I suck at this game……..

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Henry Muto: yeaaa thanks for the comment. I think maybe I got a bit too cute with my picks this week. Really what I’m trying to show is guys who might underperform and why — and you can interpret my recommendations how you will.

  10. Henry Muto says:
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    Gronk and Beckham both scored and did fine.

  11. Henry Muto says:
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    To be fair Britt scored and had a solid day. Congrats on that call I would not have had the nut sack to put Britt in my lineup.

  12. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    the “new york football jets” who are we even possibly confusing other new york jets with exactly, the gang from west side story? really seth myers?

    • The Harrow says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: somebody round here used to say (before you were here it wasn’t you) the “new york football giants” as if
      1. we’re old enough to have been around when the SF giants baseball team used to be in NY
      and
      2. even if we were that old there’d ever be an issue with confusing baseball and football teams when we’re on a football blog post (except maybe for aphasia or alzeheimers patients). and if we were in fact those patients saying that wouldn’t fix all our reading comprehension problems anyway.

  13. The Harrow says:
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    cooks in week one had 3 TD’s (EVERY one of the gillislee ones) called off from pass inters, so it wasn’t his underperformances that had a bad day, still ended up 3-83 or so. week 2 did of course go worse.

    • The Harrow says:
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      @The Harrow: hopkins’ week 3 “opponent” is the redskins. classic.

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