Week 2 Review
In the interest of full disclosure I’m going to review some of my good and bad calls each week. I have no shame in admitting when I’ve made a bad call — if I was right 100% of the time I’d be living like Biff Tannen!
Start Philip Rivers: 17.9 points
Sit Isaiah Crowell: 3.7 points
Sit Pierre Garcon: 5.6 points
Sit Patriots D/ST: -2 points
Start Jared Goff: 10.9 points
Sit Carlos Hyde: 17.3 points
Sit Dez Bryant: 18.9 points
Sit Travis Kelce: 24.3 points
Week 2 had some mixed results, but I’m confident in my start/sit picks for this week:
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 35.5%: Big Ben has 2 TD’s in each of his first two games and that trend is going to continue in his week 3 matchup against da Bears. The Bears boast (is that the right word?) one of the league’s worst secondaries and Ben will know exploit that. And with weapons like Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown and Jesse James running routes out there 330+ yards and 3+ TDs is a lock.
Jay Cutler, MIA, 1.5% starting: The ultimate gunslinging QB, Cutler finds himself in a great matchup against the New York Football Jets. The Jets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs out of the teams that played 2 games. Jay Ajayi is going to get 125+ yards against the Jets which will open up a lot of solid passing opportunities for Cutler as NY works to contain anyone wearing teal and orange. If you like offense this is going to be a fun game to watch…unless you’re a Jets fan.
Russell Wilson, SEA, 73.2%: Russ was my fantasy bust pick for 2017 so I hope he continues to struggle so I look like a genius! Sorry y’all. He hasn’t surpassed 200 yards yet, only has 1 TD and is bound to get injured at some point with that league worst offensive line. The Titans aren’t a fantastic defense, but neither were the Packers and 49ers and they limited Wilson in week 1 and 2 respectively. Start speculating on a new QB, because Russell is going to let you down.
Marcus Mariota, TEN, 43.3%: Across the field from Wilson you should avoid Mariota as well. Second week in a row I’m telling you to sit Mariota. Last week he scored 13 points which was 19th among QBs. The Seahawks have allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. In week 1 they held the best QB, Aaron Rodgers, to 16.5 fantasy points and Mariota is obviously no Rodgers.
Theo Riddick, DET, 15.7%: Ameer Abdullah might be the RB1 in Detroit, but Riddick is the #1 pass-catching RB for the Lions. Their week 3 matchup is against the Falcons who have allowed the 4th highest receiving yards to running backs this year. In 2016 they allowed the most receiving yards to running backs. In PPR leagues if you need a deep flex option — count on Riddick.
Matt Forte, NYJ, 12.7%: Don’t shy away from the Dolphins matchup here — they may have limited the Chargers Melvin Gordon to 13 rushing yards and 1 TD in his week 2 game against them, but he made up for it with 7 catches for 65 yards for 20.8 fantasy points. In 2016, the Dolphins allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the NFL. Forte seems to be the lead dog in the Jets backfield so he could have a nice game against the Dolphins.
Derrick Henry, TEN, 8.5%: Don’t be afraid of the Seahawks run defense. Last week Carlos Hyde got 17.3 fantasy points on 124 rushing yards against the Seahawks. In week 1, Ty Montgomery scored 19.3 points against the Seahawks. I’m predicting the Seahawks will minimize the Titans passing game leaving Henry free to run wild.
Saints RBs: For one, this backfield is a dysfunctional mess. Two, the Panthers have allowed only 70 total rushing yards against Carlos Hyde and Lesean McCoy, two superior running backs to anyone the Saints can run out there this year. Three, I’ve over-estimated how much I have to say about why you shouldn’t start the Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson or Alvin Kamara.
Jordan Howard, CHI, 94%: He’s healthy and going to start for the Bears so that’s not the issue here. No, what concerns me is that their week 3 opponent, the Steelers, have only allowed 127 rushing yards in 2017. The younger Watt brother and a healthy trio of Cam Heyward, Stephon Truitt and Javon Hargrave should limit Howard’s running game. Tarik Cohen is going to see a lot of snaps as a pass-catcher for the Bears.
Devante Parker/Jarvis Landry, MIA: I’m going to pair these two with my recommendation of Jay Cutler. The Jets haven’t allowed many receiving yards (202) this season, but are near the top for receiving TD’s allowed with 5. Cutler is going to air it out in this game with at least 3 deep TD passes past the Jets sad secondary — 2 to Landry and 1 to Parker.
DeSean Jackson, TB, 20.6%: DeSean only logged 39 yards in his first game of 2017, but now faces a Vikings defense that has allowed a 7th most 375 receiving yards to wide receivers this year. All-Pro Mike Evans is going to draw one of the league’s best shut-down cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes which could lead to Jackson getting more attention from Jameis Winston. I’m predicting 70+ yards and a TD from Jackson — not bad from your Flex.
Kenny Britt, CLE, 3.3%: Really Klug? A guy with 15 receiving yards on the season? With Corey Coleman now out for two weeks, Britt is going to get more looks. Yes, Rashard Higgins is going to get his share of passes as well considering he is second to Coleman with 11 targets from Deshone Kizer, but Britt needs to take advantage of this matchup against one of the league’s worst pass defenses: the Colts have allowed the most receiving yards so far in 2017. If he doesn’t, ignore him for the rest of the year and forget you ever read this!
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG, 97.8%: I’ve been saying this since the Giants signed Brandon Marshall and drafted Evan Engram — you can give Eli all the weapons in the world, but if he can’t get comfortable in the pocket, it won’t mean a thing. Also, my professional medical opinion is that OBJ isn’t 100% yet. Plus, with the lack of throws his way will turn him into a pouty child again which should really make the NY media’s week! The Eagles might not have a great secondary, but their d-line is one of the best in the league. You can figure this one out yourselves folks, elite d-line plus pathetic o-line equals terrible offensive performance.
Brandin Cooks, NE, 94.3%: Cooks should be among the leaders in receptions, yards and TDs with Tom Brady as his QB but so far he’s been a disappointment. 5 total receptions for 125 yards and 0 TDs is not what you want from your WR1. Plus this week, he Texans elite defensive front line is going to be thirsting for some Brady blood. They’re also hoping to keep their position as the team that has allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards. Cooks will eventually click with Brady, because how can’t he? Brady throws one of the most perfect balls of all time. Sit him this week — he’ll be find by the end of the season.
Jack Doyle, IND, 41.9%: I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong — I had Doyle as a sit last week facing off against a Cardinals team that allowed the fewest yards to tight ends in 2016. He proceeded to score the 6th most fantasy points among tight ends. This week, Doyle faces the Browns who have allowed the most points to tight ends in 2017. He’ll totally redeem himself.
Jared Cook, OAK, 9.2%: Cook’s week 3 opponent, the Redskins have allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends in 2017. With Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Cook, Derek Carr has three phenomenal weapons that will cause fits for opposing defenses to cover all three leaving Cook open for 60 yards and a play-action red zone TD.
Rob Gronkowski, NE, 99.4%: Another swing for the fences pick, Gronk is suffering through an injured groin which should limit him in his week 3 game against the Texans. Plus, he’s facing a Texans defense who have only allowed 60 total receiving yards to tight ends so far this season. This Pats/Texans matchup might be the most interesting game of the week to watch.
Jordan Reed, WAS, 95.7%: Second time Reed is making his appearance as a sit recommendation this year (he scored 8.6 points.) Originally he was struggling with a potentially broken toe, now he’s got chest and shoulder issues and it isn’t even certain if he’ll start. If he does start and rises above his injuries, he has a nice matchup against the Raiders who can’t contain big tight ends, but I think he’ll try and start, but the pain will be too much for him and he’ll be limited.
Panthers, 77.4%: Panthers have only allowed 6 points so far this season and should win this game, but Drew Brees is going to get his at some point in the game. He already has 632 passing yards and 3 TDs. They’re going to be throwing from behind and might get a few lucky breaks.
Graham Gano, CAR, 13.9%: The Panthers are going to tear up the Saints league-worst defense leading to a solid PAT floor for Gano. Gano is 6 for 6 in field goals, but none of them have gone for longer than 40 yards. That trend is going to continue this week because Cam and the Panthers are going to continue to get Gano short field position.
Dustin Hopkins, WAS, 91.4%: Hopkins is starting at a high clip for someone who can’t really hit the long ball — he’s 5 for 12 in his career at FG attempts over 50 yards. His week 3 opponent, the Redskins, have been struggling offensively so far this year which limits the amount of points Hopkins can get you.