I have a good time looking at stats during the season. What team can’t stop running backs from carving them up like Freddy Krueger on a dream vacation? Or what wide receiver has been targeted 98.7 percent of the time in the red zone and will soon score 15 touchdowns a game? But when it comes to quantifying fantasy draft statistics my brain shrinks like Beetlejuice’s in death’s waiting room. So I thought I would get a head start this year. I have theories that I feel are strong, such as, don’t grab a QB with the first 2-3 picks and don’t grab a D/ST or kicker until the last 2 rounds, and don’t draft Clinton Portis no matter how often you cross dress while wearing plastic pig noses.
So I thought I’d do some preliminary numbers crunching out here in the open. All these numbers come from looking at a 12 team league/1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 Flex/1 K/1 D with 2009 ESPN scoring results. You can see the points that each position scored from 1-12, 13-24, and so on, depending on how many total possible starters. And I’ve also added last year’s average draft position for the first 1-12, 13-24, and so on, for each position.
At first take it’s easy to see the need for drafting RB/WR early and often. So much of draft analysis is based on ADP. If everybody in your league were to take quarterbacks in the first round you would have to follow suit no matter how insane they are, but thankfully only a few people end up grabbing a QB instead of a top RB/WR.
These numbers are fairly expansive and don’t show the whole picture. But I do believe these numbers can give you a basic overview of how drafts play out. I plan on looking at ADP versus actual point production next. I believe WR/QB will probably come closer to meeting ADP than running backs will, which might lead some to push the WR/QB method, but that’s kind of like telling your girlfriend that she can’t get pregnant if you consummate your lust in a pool or while reciting the alphabet. Yeah, it might give you some instant gratification, but there’s a good chance you’ll be changing your team’s poo-filled diapers at some point in the season.
Quarterbacks: 12 Starters
1-12: 216–327, ADP: 11–80
Running Backs: 24-36 Starters
1-12: 177–329, ADP: 1–21
13-24: 136–166, ADP: 24-65
25-36: 103–132, ADP: 65-107
Wide Receivers: 36-48 Starters
1-12: 155–205, ADP: 8–38
13-24:121–150, ADP: 39–70
25-36: 97–120, ADP: 74–104
37-48: 80-95, ADP: 109–149
Tight Ends: 12-24 Starters
1-12: 91–168, ADP: 40–123
13-24: 44-90 ADP: 124–197
