The Stats Machine, Week 10: Alpha Beta

This week I’ve flipped the switch on The Stats Machine. Instead of look back, we’re going to look forward. Rather than crying over spilled milk, I’m going to try and figure out when the glass is about to be knocked over and keep it from happening. For some time I have toyed with the idea of trying to enhance the algorithms that drive TSM to be able to project fantasy points. While I am still a long way off, today I present to you my first attempt. What you are about to experience is software that I wouldn’t even classify as beta. More like a beta to a beta of a beta. Pre-alpha kinda shit. Speaking of Alpha Beta, gotta love Ogre! Or as the Nerds referred to, Frederick Palowakski. When asked what he thought about The Stats Machine, he had this to say: Ogre’s response.

Quaterback

It should come as no surprise that TSM believes Tom Brady will lead the way for quarterbacks this week with 22.13 points. Even with the loss of Dion Lewis, which breaks my heart, Brady will march on. Beating the New York Giants is a big deal for the Patriots and I think they are going to make a statement doing just that. The Giants are giving up the second most passing yards per game (314.7) to opposing QBs. On the flip side Brady has thrown for the second most passing yards per game (338), just a few yards behind Drew Brees (345).

After Brady, TSM is looking at Blake Bortles. The projections say 20.44 points for Bortles and James. Blake Bortes? Have I found the first glitch in my not so shiny new code? Perhaps. Or maybe I have found the first real test case. On paper, Bortles’ matchup against Baltimore looks to be favorable. I’d look for him to come close to a 300 yard game.

Running Back

If DeAngelo Williams plays this week, and I believe he will, TSM is projecting him to lead all running backs in points with 20.4 in 1-point PPR formats. Going up against the team (Cleveland) that is giving up the most yards rushing per game (140.3) to opposing RBs, this one has big game written all over it. Where there’s a Williams, there’s a way.

I’m looking forward to seeing how Jeremy Langford does this week against the Rams. It will be a much better test than last week’s matchup with San Diego. How many of us Forte owners are openly hoping for a dud! It is doubtful that Forte plays, but if he does, Langford’s projections would be decreased.

Wide Receiver

It’s about time Demaryius Thomas stepped up his game. And what better opportunity to do than against the statistically poor secondary of Kansas City. The Chiefs are surrendering a league high 215.3 receiving yards per game. They are also giving up 1.6 touchdowns to opposing receivers. Only Baltimore is allowing more (1.8). Speaking of the Ravens, suddenly I heard a tapping, as of gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door. Both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have favorable matchups this week against Baltimore. Hurns’ status is still uncertain, but if he’s able to play TSM likes both Allens this week. As a matter of fact, in standard formats, TSM has Robinson as the top receiver.

Tight End

Surprise. Surprise. The Stats Machine has identified Rob Gronkowski as the top tight end for week 10, projecting him to score 22.7 points. Against the Giants defense who is the second worst in the league against opposing tight ends, I expect a big game from Gronk. As I said earlier when discussing Brady, the Pats will be on a mission.

It looks like TSM is not expecting Tyler Eifert to have another three touchdown game. But one certainly seems to be in scope.

Jordan Reed draws the Saints. No team has given up more yards per game to opposing tight ends than the Saints. TSM suggests a 6-catch, 71-yard, 1-touchdown stat line for Reed. Sounds good to me.

Well, there you have it. Some pretty heavy stuff. Here’s to hoping that this experiment will provide at least a little insight into my journey to teach The Stats Machine how to project fantasy points. But if all else fails, we always have this to ponder, what if C-A-T really spelled dog?