ogre

This week I’ve flipped the switch on The Stats Machine. Instead of look back, we’re going to look forward. Rather than crying over spilled milk, I’m going to try and figure out when the glass is about to be knocked over and keep it from happening. For some time I have toyed with the idea of trying to enhance the algorithms that drive TSM to be able to project fantasy points. While I am still a long way off, today I present to you my first attempt. What you are about to experience is software that I wouldn’t even classify as beta. More like a beta to a beta of a beta. Pre-alpha kinda shit. Speaking of Alpha Beta, gotta love Ogre! Or as the Nerds referred to, Frederick Palowakski. When asked what he thought about The Stats Machine, he had this to say: Ogre’s response.

Quaterback

It should come as no surprise that TSM believes Tom Brady will lead the way for quarterbacks this week with 22.13 points. Even with the loss of Dion Lewis, which breaks my heart, Brady will march on. Beating the New York Giants is a big deal for the Patriots and I think they are going to make a statement doing just that. The Giants are giving up the second most passing yards per game (314.7) to opposing QBs. On the flip side Brady has thrown for the second most passing yards per game (338), just a few yards behind Drew Brees (345).

After Brady, TSM is looking at Blake Bortles. The projections say 20.44 points for Bortles and James. Blake Bortes? Have I found the first glitch in my not so shiny new code? Perhaps. Or maybe I have found the first real test case. On paper, Bortles’ matchup against Baltimore looks to be favorable. I’d look for him to come close to a 300 yard game.

Tom Brady (22.13)
Blake Bortles (20.44)
Aaron Rodgers (20.32)
Cam Newton (19.8)
Andy Dalton (19.65)
Kirk Cousins (19.18)
Drew Brees (18.9)
Carson Palmer (17.37)
Eli Manning (17.19)
Ben Roethlisberger (16.85)
Brian Hoyer (16.63)
Derek Carr (16.61)
Marcus Mariota (16.52)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (16.09)
Matthew Stafford (15.99)
Ryan Tannehill (15.9)
Tyrod Taylor (15.82)
Teddy Bridgewater (15.51)
Jameis Winston (15.5)

Running Back

If DeAngelo Williams plays this week, and I believe he will, TSM is projecting him to lead all running backs in points with 20.4 in 1-point PPR formats. Going up against the team (Cleveland) that is giving up the most yards rushing per game (140.3) to opposing RBs, this one has big game written all over it. Where there’s a Williams, there’s a way.

I’m looking forward to seeing how Jeremy Langford does this week against the Rams. It will be a much better test than last week’s matchup with San Diego. How many of us Forte owners are openly hoping for a dud! It is doubtful that Forte plays, but if he does, Langford’s projections would be decreased.

DeAngelo Williams (PPR: 20.4, Std: 16.43)
Mark Ingram (PPR: 18.59, Std: 14.45)
Adrian Peterson (PPR: 18.56, Std: 14.73)
Chris Ivory (PPR: 18.55, Std: 15.79)
Doug Martin (PPR: 17.84, Std: 14.54)
Todd Gurley (PPR: 17.77, Std: 14.96)
LeGarrette Blount (PPR: 17.52, Std: 14.66)
LeSean McCoy (PPR: 16.57, Std: 12.18)
DeMarco Murray (PPR: 15.97, Std: 12.93)
Justin Forsett (PPR: 15.72, Std: 11.99)
Darren McFadden (PPR: 14.98, Std: 11.81)
Latavius Murray (PPR: 14.93, Std: 11.92)
Lamar Miller (PPR: 14.8, Std: 11.58)
Charcandrick West (PPR: 14.51, Std: 9.51)
T.J. Yeldon (PPR: 14.46, Std: 11.05)
Matt Forte (PPR: 14.43, Std: 10.55) *
Antonio Andrews (PPR: 14.01, Std: 10.88)
Jeremy Langford (PPR: 13.01, Std: 9.11)
Jonathan Stewart (PPR: 12.6, Std: 10.68)
Marshawn Lynch (PPR: 12.57, Std: 9.64)
Giovani Bernard (PPR: 12.43, Std: 10)
Jeremy Hill (PPR: 11.77, Std: 10.18)
James Starks (PPR: 11.61, Std: 9.55)
Chris Johnson (PPR: 11.46, Std: 9.6)
Karlos Williams (PPR: 10.91, Std: 9.57)
Eddie Lacy (PPR: 10.44, Std: 8.89)
Alfred Blue (PPR: 10.44, Std: 8.02)
Isaiah Crowell (PPR: 9.87, Std: 7.67)
Ryan Mathews (PPR: 9.67, Std: 8.38)
Matt Jones (PPR: 9.66, Std: 7.75)
Charles Sims (PPR: 9.53, Std: 7.32)
Ronnie Hillman (PPR: 9.25, Std: 7.89)
Duke Johnson (PPR: 9.01, Std: 6.2)
Ameer Abdullah (PPR: 8.87, Std: 7.07)
Alfred Morris (PPR: 8.82, Std: 7.03)
C.J. Anderson (PPR: 8.59, Std: 6.77)
Rashad Jennings (PPR: 8.24, Std: 6.21)
Dexter McCluster (PPR: 8.24, Std: 5.8)
Shane Vereen (PPR: 7.53, Std: 5.09)
Theo Riddick (PPR: 7.25, Std: 4.36)

Wide Receiver

It’s about time Demaryius Thomas stepped up his game. And what better opportunity to do than against the statistically poor secondary of Kansas City. The Chiefs are surrendering a league high 215.3 receiving yards per game. They are also giving up 1.6 touchdowns to opposing receivers. Only Baltimore is allowing more (1.8). Speaking of the Ravens, suddenly I heard a tapping, as of gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door. Both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have favorable matchups this week against Baltimore. Hurns’ status is still uncertain, but if he’s able to play TSM likes both Allens this week. As a matter of fact, in standard formats, TSM has Robinson as the top receiver.

Demaryius Thomas (PPR: 22.08, Std: 13.91)
Julian Edelman (PPR: 21.43, Std: 13.59)
Allen Robinson (PPR: 21.35, Std: 15)
Antonio Brown (PPR: 21.11, Std: 13.74)
Alshon Jeffery (PPR: 20.68, Std: 12.43)
DeAndre Hopkins (PPR: 20.44, Std: 13.07)
Brandon Marshall (PPR: 19.91, Std: 12.68)
Odell Beckham (PPR: 19.9, Std: 12.97)
Allen Hurns (PPR: 19.3, Std: 13.59)
Jarvis Landry (PPR: 18.47, Std: 11.6)
Emmanuel Sanders (PPR: 18.45, Std: 12.28)
Jordan Matthews (PPR: 18.22, Std: 11.42)
A.J. Green (PPR: 17.35, Std: 11.5)
Randall Cobb (PPR: 17.33, Std: 11.3)
Travis Benjamin (PPR: 16.95, Std: 10.15)
Tavon Austin (PPR: 16.3, Std: 11.52)
Michael Crabtree (PPR: 16.23, Std: 10.28)
Stefon Diggs (PPR: 16.14, Std: 10.24)
Pierre Garcon (PPR: 15.9, Std: 10.44)
Amari Cooper (PPR: 15.69, Std: 9.99)
Calvin Johnson (PPR: 15.34, Std: 9.94)
Mike Evans (PPR: 15.31, Std: 9.67)
Eric Decker (PPR: 15.27, Std: 10.13)
Larry Fitzgerald (PPR: 14.85, Std: 9.39)
Dez Bryant (PPR: 14.43, Std: 9.13)
Rishard Matthews (PPR: 14.32, Std: 9.52)
Cole Beasley (PPR: 14.03, Std: 8.74)
Dorial Green-Beckham (PPR: 14.01, Std: 8.66)
Brandin Cooks (PPR: 13.46, Std: 8.96)
Jeremy Maclin (PPR: 13.45, Std: 7.88)
Jamison Crowder (PPR: 13.41, Std: 8.35)
James Jones (PPR: 12.67, Std: 9.05)
Danny Amendola (PPR: 12.63, Std: 8.5)
Justin Hunter (PPR: 12.43, Std: 7.4)
Willie Snead (PPR: 12.38, Std: 8.28)
Doug Baldwin (PPR: 11.93, Std: 7.6)
Rueben Randle (PPR: 11.49, Std: 7.26)
Terrance Williams (PPR: 11.4, Std: 7.48)
Golden Tate (PPR: 11.21, Std: 6.71)
Mike Wallace (PPR: 11.08, Std: 6.41)
Martavis Bryant (PPR: 11.01, Std: 8.19)
John Brown (PPR: 11.01, Std: 7)
Ted Ginn (PPR: 10.9, Std: 7.73)
Marvin Jones (PPR: 10.87, Std: 7.24)
Nate Washington (PPR: 10.49, Std: 7.05)
Robert Woods (PPR: 10.07, Std: 6.42)
Taylor Gabriel (PPR: 9.4, Std: 5.42)
Cecil Shorts (PPR: 9.39, Std: 5.51)
Percy Harvin (PPR: 9.36, Std: 5.98)
Sammy Watkins (PPR: 9.22, Std: 5.84)

Tight End

Surprise. Surprise. The Stats Machine has identified Rob Gronkowski as the top tight end for week 10, projecting him to score 22.7 points. Against the Giants defense who is the second worst in the league against opposing tight ends, I expect a big game from Gronk. As I said earlier when discussing Brady, the Pats will be on a mission.

It looks like TSM is not expecting Tyler Eifert to have another three touchdown game. But one certainly seems to be in scope.

Jordan Reed draws the Saints. No team has given up more yards per game to opposing tight ends than the Saints. TSM suggests a 6-catch, 71-yard, 1-touchdown stat line for Reed. Sounds good to me.

Rob Gronkowski (PPR: 22.7, Std: 15.65)
Jordan Reed (PPR: 18.81, Std: 11.56)
Gary Barnidge (PPR: 16.1, Std: 10.81)
Greg Olsen (PPR: 15.09, Std: 10.58)
Tyler Eifert (PPR: 14.57, Std: 9.85)
Delanie Walker (PPR: 13.87, Std: 8.47)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (PPR: 13.85, Std: 9.7)
Eric Ebron (PPR: 13.22, Std: 8.55)
Kyle Rudolph (PPR: 12.71, Std: 8.59)
Travis Kelce (PPR: 12.54, Std: 8.09)
Jason Witten (PPR: 12.37, Std: 7.07)
Martellus Bennett (PPR: 11.86, Std: 6.4)
Richard Rodgers (PPR: 11.74, Std: 7.54)
Benjamin Watson (PPR: 11.32, Std: 6.69)

Well, there you have it. Some pretty heavy stuff. Here’s to hoping that this experiment will provide at least a little insight into my journey to teach The Stats Machine how to project fantasy points. But if all else fails, we always have this to ponder, what if C-A-T really spelled dog?

  1. Nick says:
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    Hey Malamoney, do you like Desean Jackson or Michael Floyd as a pickup in 10-team standard scoring league? I’d be dropping Garcon for either & probably would plug them in for week 10. Its FAAB waivers & both guys clear tomorrow. I only have $8 left but I think I could get one of them for cheap. Or save my money for a different pickup? Roster below for week 10;

    QB-Peyton
    WR-Amari Cooper-D Adams-Garcon
    RB-AP-DeMarco
    TE-Bennett
    Flex-Jordan Matthews
    D-Az
    K-Tucker
    Bench-T Taylor, Ty Hilton, Stevie Johnson, Gates, Duke Johnson & Joique Bell

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Nick: Flip a coin between Jackson and Garcon…

  2. J-FOH says:
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    fantasy football guys are nerds? Us baseball peeps take offense to that theft

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @J-FOH: I am one of you baseball peeps…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @malamoney: *slowly tip toes backwards out of room*

  3. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Are you buying TSM’s positive outlook on Hoyer? I’m looking for a streamer, 6-pt pass TD and 5-pt bonus at 300yds. According to the above Hoyer’s my guy, but Jay’s rankings and ECR suggest Fatt Stafford. I’m also curious as to what TSM says about Bradford this week. He’s no good, but Miami’s getting strafed by QBs lately.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Steve Stevenson: I’m buying it as much as I’m buying its valuation of Stafford. But honestly, the difference between the two is practically nothing. I give the small edge to Hoyer, but wouldn’t be offended if you chose Stafford…

  4. goodfold2 says:
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    seeing as bortles, after 9 weeks averages the 9th most pts among all QB’s; it’s not crazy at all for him to be ranked 2nd depending on matchups. And FOH is right, nerd is what FF guys call FB guys. for sure the ones in bars.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: andrews being ranked that high (i’m not talking matchup, just in a vacuum) does seem odd though.

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
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        @goodfold2: The system is far from perfect…

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @goodfold2: Right on…

  5. JohnnyBeGood says:
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    hey Guys! Im a Lamar M owner….would u drop R Jennings to pick up J Ajayi ? thansks

  6. G-man says:
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    I have b. Marshall and am pretty set for the playoffs! I am thinking of trading him and couple other toss ins for mike Evans.. Do you think Evans is worth the risk? I like the consistency Marshall gives, but I feel like Evans has a lot more upside and could be pretty clutch in the fantasy playoffs

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @G-man: I’m taking Marshall over Evans…

  7. Velocity_X says:
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    Struggling at 2 positions. QB: Luck and Cutler. Cutler has been serviceable as my replacement for the past weeks, but he’s in a poor matchup. Wire is thin and the only pickups would be Hoyer, Landry Jones, or Bridgewater. Are either worth the flier over Cutler?

    DEF: Falcons on bye and not much out there. Possible pickups are Chiefs @ Broncos; Dolphins @ Philly; Cowboys @ Bucs; Redskins vs. Saints ; or Raiders vs. Vikings. Is it crazy to think about taking a risk on the Chiefs – they’ve had strong numbers the past 4 weeks and Denver hasn’t been putting up points like they used to.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Velocity_X: Hoyer has been slightly better than Cutler this season. I’d have to play the matchups.

      KC is your best of the group. Next would be Oakland…

  8. Duck Butta says:
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    @malamoney

    12 team 1 pt ppr

    My davanate and marvin jones for ty… ill be rolling with Hopkins, Robinson, Aiken, and Ty for the playoffs…

    But then thats it, so I lose depth.

    Hold for depth or pull the trigger and roll???

    Thanks!

    • Duck Butta says:
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      Anyone there?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
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      @Duck Butta: Pull the trigger…!

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