FINALLY!!! The defense has come to The Stats Machine! For the past many weeks I have been promising an updated algorithm in which opposing the defense is accounted for. Today I deliver on that promise. The premise is simple. All offensive performances will be weighted based on the ranking of the defense against which they posted said performance. Defenses have been ranked by the following four categories. Passing yards allowed vs QB. Rushing yards allowed vs RB. Receiving yards allowed vs WR. And receiving yards allowed vs TE. If one team allowed jus a few yards less than the next, but has given up several more touchdowns to a give position, I have swapped them in the rankings. With that preamble out of the way, let’s get to it.
Note. Scores cannot be compared across positions as each position has a different formula. Also, this week’s scores cannot be compared to past week’s scores as they did not include defensive adjustments.
Quarterback
Josh McCown (Score: 80.34) – Josh McCown? Really? You know it. With 356 passing yards, only Alex Smith (386), Drew Brees (359) and Philip Rivers (358) threw for more yards. Top it off with 2 passing touchdowns and he finds himself as the top QB in week 4 according to TSM.
Philip Rivers (Score: 76.06) – Anyone know which quarterback went up against Josh McCown last week? That would be Philip Rivers. Rivers threw for 358 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wait a minute! So you’re telling me that Rivers threw for more yards (2) and more touchdowns (1), yet McCown has scored higher? Is the math broken? Nope. This is the effect of defense. The Chargers are stronger against opposing quarterbacks than the Browns. San Diego is ranked 10th, while Cleveland is ranked 21st. This difference is the reason TSM has declared McCown the winner.
Honorable Mention: Sam Bradford (75.95) and Drew Brees (75.87).
Running Back (PPR)
Devonta Freeman (Score: 43.83) – I feel like it was only a week ago that I was pumping up this guy. Wait, it was. Last week he rushed for 3 touchdowns. This week he rushed for 3 more. Any chance he does it again next week? Doubtful. While Freeman only mustered 68 yards, he also caught 5 passes for 81 more. And if I have my intel correct, Terron Ward actually carried the ball 19 times for 72 yards. The majority of his carries, however, came once the game was already out of hand and Freeman could relax.
Le’Veon Bell (Score: 43.74) – Bell surely is the real deal. Well I guess that is actually Evander Holyfield, but you get the point. Le’Veon has quickly reminded us why he is such a coveted RB1 in which many were willing to draft in the first round despite being suspended for two games. On 22 carries he managed 129 yards and a score. He also contributed in the passing game by reeling in 7 catches for another 21 yards. That equates to a lot of small receptions, and in PPR-formats that’s a good thing.
Honorable Mention: Doug Martin (39.11), Jamaal Charles (35.37) and Mark Ingram (34.93).
Running Back
Devonta Freeman (Score:43.58) – See above.
Le’Veon Bell (Score: 35.48) – See above.
Honorable Mention: Doug Martin (33.75).
In standard formats Chris Ivory (29.12) had the second best score before defense was factored in. While he rushed for 166 yards, he did so against the Miami Dolphins who are giving up 133.5 rushing yards per game. This is the second worst in the league.
Wide Receiver (PPR)
Jeremy Maclin (Score: 53.40) – Considering Alex Smith threw for 386 yards, it’s not a surprise to see his favorite target here. Maclin caught 11 of 13 targets for 148 yards, with 102 yards after the catch, and was his second 140+ yard game in a row. Over the first four games he is averaging 10 targets, 7 catches and 99.5 yards. It looks like he will be just fine in Kansas City.
Vincent Jackson (Score: 52.81) – My cousin Vinny led all receivers in targets last week with 15. He caught two thirds of them. For those that need help with the math, he had 10 receptions. He also had 147 yards and a touchdown. It was Jackson’s first solid game of the season. You obviously have to own him, but I don’t know if you have to start him.
Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins (49.90), Tavon Austin (48.27) and Allen Hurns (46.78).
Wide Receiver
Tavon Austin (Score: 33.55) – Unlike Maclin and Jackson, Austin had only 96 yards receiving on just 6 catches and 7 targets. Austin, however, managed to convert 2 of those receptions into touchdowns. Considering his first three games were crap, I’m not very excited about this guy. And while he is tied for the lead in receptions (14) on the season for the Rams, Benny Cunningham is second with 12. No thanks.
Vincent Jackson (Score: 28.84) – See above.
Honorable Mention: Jeremy Maclin (27.69), Allen Hurns (25.46), DeAndre Hopkins (24.35) and Leonard Hankerson (23.18).
Tight End (PPR)
Coby Fleener (Score: 43.25) – Last week Fleener caught 9 of 12 targets for 83 yards and a score. As I mentioned on Wednesday, Fleener is only useful when Dwyane Allen is out. Otherwise you just don’t know what you are going to get. Last night he had just 2 catches for 9 yards. And with Andrew Luck out, you can forget about Fleener.
Charles Clay (Score: 42.36) – Clay had 9 receptions on 13 targets for 111 yards. So far CC, not the overweight drunk one, has put up decent fantasy numbers in his last three games. I tried to grab him this week as a bye week fill in for Greg Olsen, but I didn’t win the waiver claim. Looks like it will be Larry Donnell for me.
Honorable Mention: Martellus Bennett (40.20).
Tight End
Coby Fleener (Score: 31.65) – See above.
Charles Clay (Score: 29.00) – See above.
Honorable Mention: Martellus Bennett (28.43).
Well there you have it. The first edition of The Stats Machine as influenced by the defense. (Excel Download) TSM weekly rankings are still being calculated as I have to go back and factor in the defensive adjustments for the first three weeks. If you smell what The Stats Machine is cooking!
You can follow malamoney on Twitter.
