The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 2

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Allen Robinson

Shadow Coverage Match-up: James Bradberry

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 22 5.5 72.4 0.4 12.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 4.6 44.1 0.3 8.4
Vs. James Bradberry N/A

 

When reviewing Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage he had 2 big games and 5 duds. His big weeks came vs. notable corners Marshon Lattimore and Darius Slay where he turned 12 targets into 80 yards plus yards and a score in both. The interesting thing about the Saints game is Lattimore shut down Robinson when he covered him on 67% of his snaps, but Robinson was able to dominate in the slot which helped him finish with a strong day. The remaining 5 games Robinson struggled, failing to get to 50 yards or score in any of them.

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Your WR top 80 3.0 is here! Now we have some real live NFL data to help make adjustments. Some players were removed due to injury or ineffectiveness, and some new faces have forced their way onto the scene.

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 1

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Match-up: Jaire Alexander

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents
23 5.5 69 0.5 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage
5 5.8 76.8 0.6 14.2
Vs. Jaire Alexander
1 8 125 1 22.5

Season long Recommendation – Start

After a lost 2019 Adam Thielen looks to bounce back quick vs. division rival Green Bay and tier 2 shadow corner Jaire Alexander. Last season the Packers used Jaire Alexander to shadow Stefon Diggs, but with Diggs now gone Thielen will most likely draw coverage from the Packers top corner. The last time Thielen squared off directly vs. Alexander was in Week 12 of 2018. Thielen got the best of Alexander torching the Packers for 8-125-1. A big key for Thielen is he plays a lot of his snaps in the slot, and even vs. notable shadow corners like Marshon Lattimore he has shown he can win in these match-ups. This is why I got a Thielen that sitting him is a bad idea. Did you see what I did there…no…ok moving on. 

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As we prepare for the 2020 season, there are tons of hot takes swirling around the internet. Some are baseless tweets and articles meant to stir up conversation and clicks. Others are bold predictions that do have some foundation in reality, even if it’s a long shot. I plan to make this article somewhere in the middle.

Football is set up for small samples with only 16 games in a season and roughly 55-65 offensive snaps per game. In football, even a player with “a lot” of volume may only participate in a fantasy relevant play on 20 of those snaps. Contrast that with baseball where each hitter on a team sees 600 at bats in a season!

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It has been a couple of weeks since I last updated my rankings, so now it’s time to hit you guys with an update! So much has happened in the world of football just in this past week. Trust me, when I was updating, it almost felt like starting from scratch. I always forget how much camp shifts stuff around. Imagine if we actually had preseason games this year. 

Rankings updates aren’t always based on training camp news. Sometimes I go back and forth on swaps or a change of heart on a projected role in an offense. Hell, a lot of the time I’ll look and wonder what I was thinking just a month back for a certain player or two. Here are some of the highlighted changes that I’ve made. 

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This is the second iteration of my top 80 wide receivers with all the latest updates to this point. Some players were removed due to injury, and some new faces have forced their way onto the scene.

I plan on updating this list bi-weekly as news comes in and the season approaches then of course each week in-season. This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

When doing the analysis on Golladay his stats vs. shadow coverage was astonishing. Not just because he had a higher PPG in the 7 contest when he faced shadow coverage, but it was who he did it against that was most impressive. Golladay has succeeded in games vs. notable tier 1 shadow coverage corners including Chris Harris, James Bradberry and Tre’Davious White. In 5 of the 7 games he had at least 14 points in .5 PPR with only 1 terrible game that was under 8 points.

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It’s still blazing hot outside but fall is around the corner and that means it’s fantasy draft time! This is the first iteration of my top 80 wide receivers with all the latest updates to this point. 

I plan on updating this list weekly as news comes in and the season approaches then of course each week in-season.  This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Some players have notes highlighting a format they may be more suited for. 

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Team: Buffalo Bills

Division: AFC EAST

WR1: Stefon Diggs

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8


Historical Production

Stefon Diggs vs Shadow Coverage 2018-2019

Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage 6 11
All other opponents 24 13.4

*Point per game based on receiving stats only

Diggs has seen some mixed results vs. shadow corners. Top cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Peterson and Darius Slay held him under 50 yards over the past two seasons. However, Diggs did have one dominate performance vs. Chris Harris and the Denver Broncos. In five of six games he was held under the 13.4 points per game average he has in all other match-ups while failing to reach double digit fantasy points in 50% of those games in .5 PPR. Overall Diggs only produced one WR1 week in the games he saw shadow coverage from a tier 1 cornerback.

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Every year there are a handful of players that can elevate a fantasy team to the championship or sink it to the depths of the standings. All players are unique in their skill sets, team context, and career trajectory but some profiles do line up. 

As we get into draft season, we’re all trying to avoid the next big bust. With injuries, it’s often just bad luck but often times we can see a storm brewing around a player. Last year Le’Veon Bell was returing after a season off on a new team with a lackluster coach and a disappointment was almost too easy to spot, but many fell for it anyway. In the name of value, drafters will hold their nose and take players they know they shouldn’t. Sometimes it’s just best to avoid a bad situation.

So who will be this year’s not NEXT team? (ADPs via fantasydata)

Jared Gofftop 10 QB who is demoted to streamer

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