In this article we will break down how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers from the slot vs. out wide. The analysis will hopefully help us better identify which types of wide receivers to target each week based on where they see the most targets.

For week 1 we will review how the teams in the AFC home games faired vs. slot and outside wide receivers in 2020.  We will then look at what has potentially changed from last season and what information could repeat in 2021. The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.

The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 8

October 30, 2020 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 3 Comments

by: Bobby LaMarco

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen has been one of the best WRs when facing shadow coverage throughout his career. This includes three great performances in 2020 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 1 (6-110-2), Bradley Roby in week 4 (8-114-1) and A.J. Terrell (3-51-1). Now I am not going to sit here and say this is the murderers row of cornerbacks, but even before 2020 Thielen has been very consistent when facing shadow coverage which is reflected in his 16.4 PPG.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

To say Adam Thielen has Jaire Alexander’s number is an understatement. In 2 career games in his coverage Thielen has dominated him securing 7 – 117.5 – 1.5 while averaging a robust 24.3 PPG. This game will be in Lambeau and early indication is it will be cold and windy. This will be the first time Thielen will face Alexander in shadow coverage on the road so maybe another 20 point performance is out of the question. That being said, with Green Bay 6-point favorites the expectation is the Vikings will need to throw early and often to keep up. That is why Thielen is a must start season long player.

DFS – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,200

Adam Thielen is rated as a top 5 WR on both sites meaning he will need to have another monster game to return value for you in week 8. His historical production vs. Alexander suggests that he could do it again, but in 2/3 games in Green Bay he has been held under 100 yards and had zero touchdowns. Call it a hunch but Thielen might be a DFS fade this week on the road. Players I would pivot to include A.J Brown vs. CIN and Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ.