Top places to avoid during a pandemic? 

#1 Adam Gase’s Basement (not just during pandemics, that guy’s clearly crazy)

#2 Emergency Room

#3 Dentist Office

I avoided only one of those locations in the past 24 hours. It all started at dinner last night when I began to choke on some sugar beets. Taking Grey’s advice from this past week’s Razzball Patreon Podcast—where we talk TV shows, movies and a bunch of other nonsense each week for only $5/month to support the site, shameless plug!—my imaginary girlfriend dragged me to the front door and threw me outside. As Grey says, you don’t want EMTs coming into your house during a pandemic. So I crashed head first into the sidewalk cracking a 3 inch gash in my forehead which would require an ER visit along with 10 stitches. Next it was off to the dentist for an emergency repair of a chipped front donkey tooth. I now sit here, wearing sunglasses and nursing a concussion as I write this post which will surely make even less sense than usual. Anyway, here’s my top 50 rookies for 2020 PPR dynasty football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We’re gonna cut right to the chase here. If you’ve been following my offseason process, you know what I look for when ranking prospects. If you are a first timer please check out this article explaining my general rationale.

Additionally, you can see the ascent and decline of various WRs since February with my pre-combine rankings and post-combine rankings.

There are some shakeups in the top 15 now that we know draft capital and landing spot. The tiers stayed mostly intact, but there was a lot of movement inside each.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Quarantine Day 41:

The price of oil hit -$37 per barrel yesterday. That’s not a typo, NEGATIVE 37 dollars! As in, they’ll pay you $37 to take a barrel of oil off their hands. So I told my oil guy to mark me down for 1,000 barrels. Figure I should be able to fit at least 900 barrels in my bathtub and then a couple dozen in the kitchen sink, right? Hope so, because I already spent my $37,000 on Chicago Bears season tickets. Da Bears are even throwing in a 20-pack of N95 masks as part of the deal this year. To avoid thinking about how the Bears will blow this years draft picks (at least we don’t have a 1st rounder to waste) I’ve compiled my top 20 rookies for 2020 dynasty football—went over the top 10 rookies last week. Obviously we don’t know landing spots or draft capital yet, so take these rankings with a chaser of West Texas crude. Anyway, here’s my top 20 rookies for 2020 PPR dynasty football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Quarantine Day 27:

Hey all you cool cats and kittens. Did you see the story about the tiger at the Bronx Zoo that tested positive for coronavirus? Very sad. I blame Carole Baskin. Not just for the infection of this poor feline, but for the entire COVID debacle. Speaking of which, the CDC just released some new guidelines and in order to receive a COVID-19 test in the United States you must now meet at least one of these requirements:

     a) Politician

     b) Professional athlete (Major League Soccer doesn’t count)

     c) Movie star (Porn does count)

     d) Valued tiger at the zoo

And if you check all four boxes the CDC even throws in a free roll of TP. So far only one man has cashed in on that free roll of one-ply: my preferred 2020 presidential candidate, Darren Waller. Anyway, here’s my top 15 dynasty tight ends for 2020 fantasy football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The tight end position is similar to QB in fantasy, in the sense that only an elite player really turns tides for your team. Most TE production is replaceable week in and week out. In 2019 the top 7 tight ends ranged between 16.6 and 13.6 in PPR points per game before a 1.3PPG gap to TE 8. The elite tier was even more dramatic in 2018 when the top 2 TEs averaged 3 PPG more than TE3.

Because of this, in most leagues the TE position is an afterthought on draft day. In dynasty rookie drafts it is difficult to know how to value a TE because 1) they take a while to develop for fantasy and 2) they are so often replaceable compared to other positions. If you are going to take a rookie TE, it better be in an attempt to land a whale.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The back end of my WR rankings for 2020 include some crushes that I hoped would have generated some buzz at the combine but didn’t, plus one athletic freak that caught everyone’s eye but I still have doubts about. 

In the pre-combine top 30 rookie wide receiver rankings I laid out the key factors I was looking for and why I ranked the players where I did. As a follow up I am now adjusting based on new information such as body mass index (BMI), athletic testing and overall post-combine buzz coming out of Indianapolis. 

There was a lot of movement within the WR rankings because so many players are very close and small details can cause big ripples. I did penalize the players who did not run at the combine because I think in a class so tight, that will matter on draft day, impacting projected draft round.  

A Word About BMI

Numberfire ran a nice study in 2015 and their conclusion was “If we’re talking absolute, elite production, your best bet is more than likely a tall wide receiver, and a heavy one, too.” The correlation was fairly weak, but in general bigger WRs had more success. The study found that the average BMI for WRs that scored 10+ touchdowns was 27.09 and the average BMI declined in groups with less touchdowns. While that was from 2015, this past season saw 10 of the top 12 WR finishers in points per game had a BMI of >26.5 and 7 of them had a BMI >27.

Only DJ Chark (24.1) came in under 26.  I don’t think it’s linear, as in a 28 BMI is better than a 26.5, but I do think a threshold is probably needed. Most WRs at the combine hit at least 26 because that’s just the typical pool of NFL players. This year is odd because the top 2 consensus WRs did not register a 26, but draft capital cures a lot of ills. The lesser known players that didn’t get to 26 got dinged for me because their draft slot was already tenuous. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome to the back end of my top 30 rookie WRs. Because you are reading this, I already have mad respect for you as I know only the deepest degenerates want to know who the incoming WR30 is. As stated in my initial post, I used receptions per game in college, along with breakout age and projected draft capital to rank this class. 

Most of these guys have a small chance of getting drafted high enough to be projected as a fantasy star, but they all have something interesting to keep an eye on! For those that didn’t read the WRs 1-15 article, I explained some of the methodology below. Otherwise, skip to the list!

Please, blog, may I have some more?