What wide receiver stats really matter? If you scroll through Twitter on any given day you will see a plethora of numbers backing up sleepers, busts and “league winners” among other things. For WRs you’ve got YAC stans, yards/target pushers, market share aficionados and everywhere in between. It’s easy to get excited when you see that a certain player had 25 yards/reception and is in line for increased targets the next year!

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There are a handful of players I fell in love with combing through college production data that the NFL didn’t seem too keen on. My process is outlined here but breakout age, receptions per game and top 3 round NFL draft capital remain important pillars in my prospect evaluation.

The following 3 players met one or more of my thresholds but fell very short of being a day 2 selection in the NFL draft. I wanted to dig deeper and watch some tape to see if the NFL missed something or if I did.

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Quarantine Day 20:

Time is a flat circle. A circle which begins to look like an octagon after 20 days of solitude in my underground virus bunker. The eight points represent the number of times per hour that I breakdown crying divided how many days I’ve been out of toilet paper. I’ve been spending my days deep in philosophical and metaphysical discussion with my new best friend, a football by the name of Wilstoner. The football’s a real free thinker. On the topic of free thinking, I gave you my top 20 and top 40 dynasty wide receivers for 2020 fantasy football a week or two back. Or maybe it was a month or two back, I don’t even know anymore. This quarantine time octagon has me all mixed up. Anyway, here’s my top 60 dynasty wide receivers for 2020 fantasy football co-authored by Wilstoner the football: 

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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If you were to ask 15 fantasy football “experts” who you should start between Brian Hill and Bo Scarbrough, all 15 of those analysts wouldn’t have hesitated in saying Hill. Every single one of them. That’s just how it shakes out in the wonderful world of football fantasies.

Bo Scarborough was signed yesterday by the Lions from the practice squad only to lead the backfield with 14 carries 55 yards and a rushing touchdown. 3.9 YPC isn’t impressive at all, but how the hell were we supposed to know Bo Scarbrough would be a lead back. I’m actually surprised that he wasn’t on a roster after a pretty nice college career at Alabama. 

Brian Hill, on the other hand, was in a smash spot against the Carolina Panthers who have struggled exponentially against the run. Brian Hill ran the ball 15 times for 30 yards and had a touchdown called back because of a holding call. The hardest pill to swallow was that it was such a positive game script for the Falcons. They led the entire game. I guess sometimes the chalkiest calls end up being too chalky. Here is what else I saw in the early slate. 

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Patrick Mahomes made his triumphant return to the Chiefs’ lineup on Sunday and he did not disappoint. On his first throw he didn’t look like he was moving around very well and threw what looked like an interception, but it ended up getting overturned to a completion. After that, he looked like the same ol’ Patty. Andy Reid was not at all shy about his usage either. Mahomes attempted 50 passes and completed 36 of them for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It really helps to have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to. Tyreek Hill saw a remarkable 19 targets and caught 11 of them for 157 yards and a touchdown. Travis Kelce caught all 7 of his targets for 75 yards. Mecole Hardman absolutely turned on the burners for his 63 yard touchdown catch. Having two of the fastest wide receivers in the league is paying off for the Chief’s offense. Unfortunately, we have the Chief’s defense, and we also have the turnover prone running backs on this roster. While Damien Williams did reach over 100 total yards, he had a costly fumble that might have put him in the doghouse with Andy Reid. I’m not quite sure what his other options are though.

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You have to love when two guys have career days and the starting percentages are probably pretty low on them. I say pretty low because I’m sure there were people in bad bye week spots or in deeper leagues that had to start Chase Edmonds or Marvin Jones Jr. Marvin Jones is a solid WR3 for fantasy but I don’t think that many were elated about slotting him in against the Vikings. For those that were savvy enough to start Jones Jr., he rewarded them with 10 catches, 93 yards and 4 touchdowns. That is a best ball format wet dream. In the leagues that I own Jones Jr., I can’t see myself leaving him on the bench again against the Giants next week. 

Chase Edmonds was a different type of situation. David Johnson was named active going into the game and he took one carry for 2 yards and didn’t touch the ball again for the rest of the game. I’m guessing that the majority of people that heard Johnson was active took Edmonds out of their lineup. Well, Edmonds carried the ball 27 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Incredible. Let’s get to some other performances from the early slate on Sunday.

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To avoid writing in-depth about the Kansas City Chiefs for a 4th week in a row, this week will focus on the 2nd highest projected point total, TB @ LAR.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions carries the highest point total for week 4 at 54.5. Another episode of Oprah Winfrey giving away TDs to everyone in the audience. Kerryon Johnson is a clear start after KC was torched by Mark Ingram, and the release of CJ Anderson. Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr. are all starts this week. TJ Hockensen is a viable TE play, and Mecole Hardman/Demarcus Robinson remain flex plays. If Damien Williams is sidelined again, then Darrel Williams is a RB3/Flex with RB2 upside. Follow KC’s injury/practice reports regarding LeSean McCoy’s health status and Damien’s knee. Darwin Thompson remains only a deeper league bench stash, not worth rostering in most formats until his pathway to usage and opportunity increase.

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Folks… We made it. We have NFL Sunday from this weekend until January 25th. I can hardly wait for the kickoff octo-box and the soothing sounds of Scott Hanson’s voice to touch my ear drums. In preparation for this glorious moment, I give to you the second part of our week 1 NFL data evaluation. If you are just starting your week 1 prep, I recommend going back to the first article to review the Thursday night and early slate games.

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A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

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