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Welcome to my first article on the football side of the house. For those who haven’t seen my work, I spent the baseball season in a locked room deep underneath the Razzball building crunching numbers and making season-long and Sunday DFS player recommendations. Grey’s minions left the door ajar one day and I was able to sneak off.
Fast forward a couple weeks…DT (@DonkeyTeeth87) and Bobby (@BobbyLamarco) find me sleeping under an unused desk in the football wing. They feed me a quick meal from the vending machine and before I know it, Bobby, Sky (@skyguasco) and Stiles (@stiles08) are grilling me for Start/Sit calls on the Sunday morning podcast. Despite the pseudo-hostage videos, there’s still no sign of Grey’s henchmen coming to take me away, so I think I’ll get to stay awhile. I might as well start earning my keep around here and help my new pals crunch some football numbers and make season-long and DFS player recommendations. Why not…it’s what I do!
The focus of this weekly article will be target trends. We’ll start at who’s getting, or not getting, the targets but take it a step further. We’ll scour the stat sheets together and see which players are trending up, trending down, or holding their own. Targets are a good indicator of which players have the opportunity to score for your fantasy teams but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. Beyond just the numbers, we’ll try to better understand what may be causing the movement and ultimately, answer the question that’s most important to all of us: Will these trends help us win our fantasy football games?
So, come along for the ride, and let’s build some winning lineups together. As an added bonus to me, there’s strength in numbers so the more of you joining me on this journey, the better chance I’m not in shackles back in the dungeon by Christmas! Let’s Go!
“It’s Getting Hot Up In This Here Joint”: As the name implies, these players are seeing a rise in their targets. Will it last or are these players one-week wonders?
Amari Cooper, Browns: Amari Cooper doesn’t seem to be getting much fantasy respect during his brief time in Cleveland but that may be changing soon. The Browns will continue to be a run-first offense but when the ball goes in the air, the odds are it’s headed Amari’s way. Cooper is being targeted on 25% of his routes and leads the team with 8 per game. He’s had a couple of duds in there but more often than not, he’s turning double-digit targets into double-digit fantasy scoring. In fact, would you be surprised if I told you Amari Cooper is the 11th-ranked WR (PPR) in the NFL? I certainly was.
Leonard Fournette: Something big is happening in Tampa Bay too…and his name is not Tom Brady, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin. It’s Leonard Fournette! Over his first 3 games, Fournette was targeted 12 times and logged 9 receptions. Since then, he’s been targeted 23 times with 22 receptions, including receiving TDs in each of the last 3. With a banged-up O-line and Tom Terrific under constant pressure, it’s no wonder then that the Bucs are top 5 in the NFL with targets to RBs.
Zach Ertz: Speaking of team target leaders, the Cardinals are also top 5 in the NFL…to TEs. Zach Ertz has been an absolute target monster for the Cardinals – to the tune of 93% of all TE targets. This hasn’t translated to absurd fantasy scores yet though. While he has double-digit scoring in 5 of 6 games, 16.7 points is his max. With all this work, can we get Ertz into the end zone more often? With DeAndre Hopkins coming back to the active roster this weekend, perhaps it’ll open the goal line up for Zach. Perhaps!
DJ Moore, Panthers: If your first reaction to including DJ Moore here is confusion, I don’t blame you. Remember, this is “target trends” not “fantasy PPG” trends. Despite some wrenched performances on his ledger this season, his target share is actually increasing in the Panthers’ offense. Over his first 3 games, DJ received a steady 6 targets per game. Over the last 3, that number has increased to almost 9. While not a huge increase, the trend should put you all on notice – the window to buy low on DJ Moore is starting to close. The firing of Matt Rhule and the trade of Robbie Anderson to the Cardinals this week just amplifies the fact that the Panthers are going back to basics, which includes a lot more of DJ Moore.
“A Thin Line Between The Haters And The Ones That Love Us”: Don’t take these players to Six Flags or Busch Gardens, they don’t like the thrilling ups and downs on the roller coasters. Rather, you’ll find these guys more comfortably just doing what they do. Although boring in real life, it usually means gold for the fantasy footballer.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: Talk about living on a plateau. Check out CeeDee Lamb’s weekly targets over the first 6 games: 11, 11, 12, 8, 8, 10. Cooper Rush and the Cowboys’ ball-control offense hasn’t been a drag on Lamb’s contributions. In reality, he’s been the glue for the Pokes while Dak has been out recovering, averaging 6 receptions and 16.5 PPR points per game. With Dak expected back this week versus a rather porous Lions defense coming off their bye week, it’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers: Deebo is another player who you can count on getting his targets each week, regardless of his QB or the matchup. He’s averaging a steady 8 targets per game, converting at a clip of about 60%. Unlike most WRs, Deebo is also getting work from the backfield work, boosting his fantasy value to double-digit fantasy scoring in all 6 games. There’s no reason to think these trends will change anytime soon.
A.J. Brown, Eagles: A.J. Brown came to the City of Brotherly Love and endeared himself quickly to his new fanbase. Versus the Lions in Week 1, Brown delivered 10 receptions (on 13 targets) for 155 yards or 25.5 PPR points. He followed that up with a steady 8.8 targets/game resulting in double-digit scoring games in 4 of the next 5. While he hasn’t blossomed into the elite WR many of us were hoping for after Week 1, he’ll remain a steady contributor, with a solid floor, for your fantasy squads.
“Sometimes It Hides Like A Frightened Turtle”: Shrinkage is a word no man wants to hear in the same sentence as their name. Much like George from Seinfeld, these players have been experiencing shrinkage in their weekend activities too. Unfortunately, they can’t blame it on the pool.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders: Curtis busted out of the blocks with 2 big games, a combined 20 targets, 15 receptions, 133 yards and 2 TDs. He’s been a favorite of many prognosticators over the past few weeks, myself included, based in part on these early season results and favorable game matchups. He rewarded us with a few duds, including the 5 target, 2 reception, and 6-yard performance last Thursday night against the Bears. A change at the QB position from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke does not bode well for Curtis Samuel “truthers” either. Therefore, when you hear them say, “it’s ok, it happens to everyone now and then. Next time you’ll be yourself”- don’t be fooled again!
Garrett Wilson, Jets: After pronouncing his arrival in September, it appears Garrett Wilson needs more than a blue pill to resurrect his fantasy appeal. Once the calendar turned over to October, his target share, and thus his fantasy production literally was cut in half. Over the first 3 weeks with Joe Flacco under center, Wilson received a combined 33 targets. Since Zach Wilson took over in Week 4, his target share has plummeted to a combined 15. Here is his fantasy production in those 3 games: 2-41, 3-27, and 1-8. Even lipstick won’t make this look any more attractive. Until something significant changes, stay away from Garrett Wilson in EVERY format.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars: I’m starting to see a trend here that I don’t like. I’m not convinced it’s a real trend yet but I’m putting him on notice. It appears Sunshine is moving away from his veteran receiver. Over the past two games, Kirk’s targets have dropped to 3 and 5, respectively. He did manage a TD reception last week at the Colts, but it doesn’t mask my concern here. Prior to week 5, he had 3 games with more targets alone than these last 2 combined. Additionally, his receptions are trending the wrong way too (6, 6, 6, 2, 1, 4). Again, I’m not pulling the alarm quite yet but that will change if this situation doesn’t correct itself very soon.
