TD Rushing/Receiving Share Tool: Risers

Welcome to Part Two of TD Rushing/Receiving Share Tool. This tool helps identify players who had anomalously high or low rushing and receiving TD rates over a rolling 18 weeks period of regular season games (includes previous season). Minimum 4 games played. It also looks at rushing and receiving shares among their team. Utilizing this new tool at Razzball, we will review some rising players in drafts and the correlation to their ADP to give you an edge heading into your drafts.

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Risers

• Team: Green Bay Packers
• Players: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs

We all love the Packers heading into this season, but the number one question is which WR is the right choice? The simple answer, it’s complicated. Reed scored the most fantasy points in ’23 and the more versatile. Watson should be the number one but cannot stay healthy. Doubs had the highest snap share and the best route runner.

This trio of WRs played together in nine games last season. In PPR, Reed averaged 11.3 points on 4.5 targets, Watson averaged 11.25 on 5.8 targets and Doubs averaged 10.6 on 6 six targets over those nine contests. Waton has the highest scoring output in PPR with 27.6 points on Week 13 vs KC.

Digging a little bit deeper and utilizing the TD  Rushing/Receiving Share Tool, the trio have a near identical target share (16-17%) and TD reception share (24-27%) in games played with Jordan Love. Watson has a slight edge in red zone department, as he is targeted 5% more inside the 20 and our model projects him with a higher TD share of three. 

ADP doesn’t reflect how close these three really are as Reed is going at pick 77, Watson at 95 and Doubs at 126. I will fade Reed at cost and look to draft Watson or Doubs.

• Team: Carolina Panthers
• Players: Dionte Johnson & Adam Thielen

Dave Canales has worked wonders for QBs and in turn created WR fantasy darlings along the way. With his sights on Bryce Young, which Panthers’ WR should you target?

Last season in Tampa Bay, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were equally targeted 136 and 130, however Evans outscored Godwin by 73 points in PPR formats due to TD discrepancy of 13 to 2. Evans had 41.9% of the Bucs receiving TDs, while Godwin only 9.7%. Our model suggested Godwin should of have 17.2% more TDs (5), which would put him at seven receiving TDs for the season. He would of finished as WR13. However in this theory, Evans would of ended up with nine TDs and the WR12. 

In 14 out of 18 games played in Pittsburgh, Dionte Johnson accounted for 22% target share (87 targets) and a ridiculous 54.5% receiving TD share, which equates to 5 TDs. Conversely, Adam Thielen drew 137 targets, a 23.4% target share and 38.1% red zone target share, which ranked 2nd among WRs last season. What does this mean?

I believe Canales will work his magic with Young and foresee a scenario where Thielen has a Evans-esque season and Johnson having the Godwin role. Johnson has a very reasonable ADP of 86 and Thielen going for free at 154. Don’t overlook these two. 

• Team: Chicago Bears
• Players: D’Andre Swift

All the talk is about passing situation in Chicago, but what about the ground game?

While in Seattle, Shane Waldron utilized Kenneth Walker III like workhouse back with a team rushing share of 64.6%, which ranked 4th among RBs and 60.3% of Seahawks red zone rushing attempts (10th among RBs) in 15 games played.  Zach Charbonnet was sprinkled overall around 30%, but it was Walker III’s backfield, who finished as RB20 on per game basis.

Swift led Philadelphia with a rushing share of 47.7% but was the second rushing option in the red zone due to Jalen Hurts. Now in Chicago, Swift is going as the RB22 at pick 78, which could be a steal if he sees the volume Walker III received in Seattle. Swift makes for an intriguing RB2 with upside if he can take control of the backfield.

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