Teasers and Pleasers: 2020 Win Total Over/Unders

Lucky charms come in all shapes and sizes, but bugs bringing you good luck is just plain weird. Yes, I am talking about ladybugs. Do you realize there is no discernable history behind the ladybug’s lucky nature? Despite the lack of facts, many believe being a landing pad for these flying critters will serve you well as long as you don’t brush it off! Let her fly away and reap the reward.

The ladybug legend doesn’t stop at luck. It’s told that these feminine flyers can predict your future too! Well, now you have got my attention bugs. Tradition says if you count their spots, it will signal how many kids you’ll have (yikes) or possibly the number of lucky months ahead of you. We have got four months of betting ahead of us. Wherever that four-spotted ladybug lands, I hope it’s on my shoulder.

Today, we try our luck at over/under win total bets. Team win totals give you action on a team all season long. Without preseason games and drastically different training camps, win total bets will be more popular than ever as the pandemic has gamblers itching to lay their bets down. Which brings me to the first pro tip I want to share with you.

Here are the three win total lines I believe are worth a few units of your seasonal bankroll for 2020 in order from most to least confident. You’ll notice they don’t add up to 100%. That is because we aren’t going to put our entire seasonal bankroll on win totals. There are other future and prop bets I have to share with you before the NFL season gets underway.

The Tennessee Titans came within one win of representing the AFC in Super Bowl LIV, after a 9-7 regular season and two stunning playoff victories over the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. So why the disrespectful win total, Vegas?

The Titans return ten offensive starters, including their newly extended quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, and star running back, Derrick Henry. The only loss on that side of the ball was right tackle Jack Conklin who was immediately replaced by 1st round selection, Isaiah Wilson. Tennessee injected a playmaker on the defensive side of the ball by signing free agent OLB, Vic Beasley, and rumors are swirling about possibly bringing in another pass rusher, Jadeveon Clowney. This was already a team defense that created the 10th most turnovers in the league and finished top 12 in opponents’ points allowed.

After all that, A.J. Brown and the Titans aren’t even the betting favorites to win the AFC South at FanDuel Sportsbook, who has the Indianapolis Colts ahead of them. I do not see the reasoning behind that line and suspect we will be betting this in the near future too. The Houston Texans roster is worse, the Jacksonville Jaguars are heading toward the number one overall pick, and those Colts are counting on an aging Phillip Rivers to install his offense without the benefits of a preseason game.

Finally, Tennessee has the 13th most manageable schedule by 2019 opponent record in the NFL, 127-128-1. They play the NFC North and AFC North, two of the weaker divisions. When I look at their schedule, week by week, only the Week 11 tilt at Baltimore jumps off the page as a difficult win. This team has the talent and beneficial schedule to win double-digit games. Go OVER on the 8.5 wins.

Reality TV has its place in popular culture, but not in the NFL. The Cleveland Browns are the league’s version of Jersey Shore. Obnoxious personalities, forced to come together, in front of cameras, for the whole world to judge. Both are disasters waiting to happen. Cleveland went 6-10 last season and subsequently fired their Head Coach, Freddie Kitchens. They welcome Kevin Stefanski into that role in 2020.

Cleveland has a new Head Coach, but they have the same ‘ole Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was a turnover machine in 2019, tossing nearly as many interceptions (21) as touchdowns (22). He has a career record as an NFL quarterback of 12-17. Stefanski and crew weren’t the ones who drafted Baker, so it is not an impossibility Mayfield loses his job at some point. Wide receiver, Odell Beckham dyed his hair, and now we are supposed to believe he won’t be a distraction for the first time in his career? Odell averages nine games played and many more back pages of newspapers each season. Circuses circus.

Cleveland did upgrade their offensive line with ex-Titan, Jack Conklin, but I cannot see the Browns making a three win leap in 2020. The Baltimore Ravens are the class of the division, the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger returns under center, and the Cincinnati Bengals will look different led by rookie Joe Burrow. Play the UNDER on the 8.5 wins.

Brian Flores is building a good thing in South Florida. His Miami Dolphins have a ton of buzz heading into the season as the public’s surprise team. Most of this hype centers on how they finished 2019, going 5-4 in their last nine games. There is undoubtedly a ton of youthful talent there. Miami had 11 draft picks, using their first to draft quarterback Tua Tagolvailoa.

Getting the best number is essential for every wager. A big part of my consideration with this team was finding DraftKings Sportsbook still posting a 6.5 win total. Smart money bettors have hammered that under elsewhere, moving it to 6 at many other locations.

Last year, they were 5-11. There’s no telling when Tua will take the reins from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Miami projects to have the third toughest schedule based on last season’s opponent records, 135-120-1. Head where the smart money is going, on the UNDER at 6.5 wins.

After you make your wagers, stand outside for a while, and maybe that ladybug of your gambling dreams will find you attractive. When she does, ask her if she has any single friends for your man @FantasyTriage.