Good news folks, Razzball has renewed my contract for a third season! While I’d love to say that I am to Razzball what Game of Thrones is to HBO, or The Walking Dead is to AMC, it simply would not be true. I’m more like Silicon Valley and Better Call Saul. But hey, that’s something right? Speaking of The Walking Dead, is it too early to start the “who does Negan kill” conversation? Just let it be Glen and let’s be done with it. Ok, back to me. As excited as I’m sure you all are to the prospect of me spending another year spewing nonsense intermingled with football advice, I’m twice as excited to be back. However, I’d like to make a minor request. Good or bad, I’d appreciate you leaving me a comment after reading my posts. If after reading something I’ve written you instantly wish you had the previous six minutes back, then please say so. If taking a dump is more enjoyable than listening to my advice, then tell me about your dump. Got it? Good.
Even though it was a full year ago, it feels like just yesterday that we collected all eight pieces of the Triforce, defeated Gannon and his minions, and saved Princess Zelda from certain peril. Since then a full season of fantasy football and baseball has passed, and during that time Gannon’s underlings have recaptured Princess Zelda as part of their plan to resurrect the ashes of their evil leader. Wait, WHAT???
Last year, in The Legend of the Bid Button, I introduced my strategy for approaching fantasy football auctions. I absolutely urge you to go back and read (or re-read) that post as I do not want to rewrite it today. For those of you that adamantly insist on not doing so, I will try and summarize as briefly as possible. Set a budget for each position on your roster. Use these values as soft limits. That means do not be afraid to bid a little more for the right player. But if you do, be sure to adjust your budget to account for the extra spending. When targeting players to bid on, compare players based on their “points per dollar” (PPD) value. This value is determined by dividing a player’s projected fantasy points by their estimated average cost. This will give us the number of points that player will give you for each dollar you spend on them if you purchase them at their estimated average value.
Here is a simple example. Adrian Peterson is projected to score 244 points and has an average cost of $58. That’s an average of 4.24 points per dollar. Mark Ingram, on the other hand, is projected to score 239 points, just 5 less than Peterson. However, Ingram’s estimated cost is only $37 (6.53 PPD). Why not draft Ingram for $37 and save yourself $21 that you can use to get yourself a shiny new wide receiver?
Here is my starting budget: QB=$10, RB1=$50, RB2=$30, WR1=$30, WR2=$25, Flex=$30, TE=$10, K=$1, DST=$1, Bench=$13 (7 players)
This post is based on a one-point PPR league.
Cam Newton is the consensus top quarterback in everyones rankings, including mine. I project Newton to score more points than any other quarterback, but I still have no intention of winning him on auction day. Let’s see why? Newton will cost about $33. If I go after Russell Wilson I will save about $14 and it will only cost me approximately 18 points. Personally I’m targeting both Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Even though Brady projects to 241 points, I still have him as my fourth best QB because those points are based on only 12 games. If I can grab Brady for $13 and pair him with a cheap $2 backup like Tyrod Taylor, I’ll be all set.
However, the QB that really intrigues me based on PPD is Blake Bortles. For just $7 I can get 282 points. That’s quite a return on my investment, leaving me with an extra $9 or so to bid on other players. And don’t kid yourself, $9 is a lot in an auction. When it’s over, you’ll look back at all the players you missed out on by a few dollars and only then will you realize how important that $9 was. I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable with Bortles as my QB, but I wanted to put the option on the table.
Here’s an important point to keep in mind. Expensive studs are never going to have an attractive PPD value. But that does not mean you should avoid them. That would be a bad plan of attack. One of the reasons we use PPD is so that we can save a few dollars here and there so we have extra dollars to spend on a stud. Studs, barring injury, are your best source of consistent points. We can, however, use PPD to help us determine which stud we should target. Todd Gurley is projected to score 10 more points than Devonta Freeman, but he also costs an additional $10. I think I’ve got to go with Freeman here.
Matt Forte is projected to score 211 points and comes with a $20 price tag. Both Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin are projected to score 209 points yet they have an average cost of about $37 each. Are they really worth $17 more than Forte?
|Odell Beckham Jr.||319.73||58.1||5.50|
|Ted Ginn Jr.||112.30||1.7||66.06|
With all of your savings at QB and RB, you should have enough dollars to get Antonio Brown. But if you get outbid on Brown because someone in your league was willing to spend $80 on him, make sure you get one of Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr or DeAndre Hopkins. You’ll thank yourself later. These are the studs to which I was referring earlier.
By now you should be a pro at spotting PPD values. Anyone stick out in the top ten wide receivers? How about Keenan Allen. If I can get him for under $30 I am taking him every time.
In snake drafts I can see you drafting Rob Gronkowski, but in auctions, there is no way I can justify spending $50 on a tight end. No freaking way. I’ll take Coby Fleener for $6 and call it a day. Heck, how about the ageless Antonio Gates for two bucks!
An auction can change at a moments notice. One click of the bid button can have a rippling effect on the rest of your auction. The best thing you can do is to be prepared. Know who you are targeting and how much you are willing to spend on each of them. Know who you plan to avoid. Nominate these players when it’s your turn and let your league mates lower their remaining budgets bidding on them. However, don’t be a fool. If you can get a player you really weren’t targeting at a deep discount, take the player. I’m not a fan of width=”200″ and his $47 price tag, but if I can get him at $35, I’ll take him. Dez is not going to go for $35, but hopefully you catch my drift.
You can download the spreadsheet here. If you enter the number “1” (no quotes) in the “drafted” column that row will be highlighted in green to represent a player you have drafted. Entering any other value highlight the row in red to indicate a player that is no longer available.
Good luck. Wisdom, power and courage!