Hola Razzballers!  I’ve been writing a weekly article for the Razz for about a month now and I’ve loved every second of it.  So first and foremost, thank you to everyone for reading my article; it makes the research and writing all the more worthwhile.  I hope and plan to be a part of this website for weeks to come.

Secondly, I wanted to tell everyone that I am slightly changing how I answer questions in the comment section.  After a statistical based college career, I have developed the ability to develop and analyze statistical data to fit almost any situation.  Statistics are a great way to analyze trades or start/sit dilemmas, but like everyone at one time or another, I am guilty of using too much of a good thing.  Statistics should only be used to gain knowledge, rather than be the driving force in a decision.  In the past, I only answered with the numbers because I put a higher level of importance on a statistics than a hunch.  After a few weeks, I’ve realized that’s not the way to go around it.  I will now be answering questions with both statistical data and my gut feeling, so that the readers can get every bit of information out of their question.

With that said, stats are still important…so here you go ladies and gents.

The Baltimore Ravens need Home Cooking.
Baltimore is 4-0 outscoring opponents nearly 2 to 1 (128-65) at home.  Away from M&T Bank Stadium the Ravens post an underwhelming 2-3 record, outscoring opponents only 97-87.  You take out an outlier 37-7 away win against the Rams and the Ravens are 1-3 and are being outscored 60-80 as the visitors.  It doesn’t help their case that their 3 away losses have come to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks… ouch.

The Saints Do Too
At home, the Saints average just under 40 PPG (39.75), Drew Brees connects on over 75% (75.7) of his passes, and the Saints rush for 5.5 YPC.  The Saints play 4 of their remaining 6 games at home.  Sweet, sweet music.

The Ram’s Dread Zone troubles.
The St. Louis Rams have only completed 1/3 of their passes in the red zone.  Ironically, when inside the red zone, the Rams pass 67% of the time.  Makes me wonder…

Schaub’s Loss is Foster’s gain?
The Houston Texans lead the league in rushing attempts with 357, which is 67 more attempts than the next closest team (Jags).  Arian Foster is currently averaging 148 yards per game, best among non QBs.  Schaub is now injured for the season.  Soon to come: the Arian Foster/Ben Tate show anyone?

Jaguars Defense
As bad as the Jaguars have been offensively, they possess the 4th best overall defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers Anomaly
You may know the Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the best record in the AFC (7-3).  What you may not have known is that they are also tied for the worst turnover margin in the league (-10).

Speaking of Anomalies…
The Jets defense is top 10 in: QBR against (2nd), Passing TD allowed (tied 2nd), YPC allowed (tied 8th), 3rd down percentage (2nd), fumbles forced (7th), and interceptions (tied 4th).  Yet they allow a middle-of-the-pack 22.2 PPG.

Matador Defenses
Two teams currently allow over 400 YPG – Patriots (412) and Bucs (401.2)

The Eagles can’t be THIS bad, can they?
The Philadelphia Eagles are 1-5 against teams with a winning record and are 2-1 against teams with a losing record.  If this trend continues, the Eagles’ projected end of the season record will stand at 6-10.  Ironically, Philadelphia has been favored to win 8 of 9 games this season.

One Man Band
Both Aaron Rodgers (335.7) and Cam Newton (331.0) average more yards per game than 17 NFL teams.

What’s Worse?
In week 10, there were 12 missed field goals and a blocked extra point.  Two of the misses came from within 25 yards (22, 24).
Tim Tebow threw for only 2 completions on 8 attempts in a 17-10 win against the Chiefs.

The other Harbaugh
The 49ers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown on the season (I will mention this every week until the streak ends).  What you may not have known is that the other Harbaugh and the Ravens are also the top 3 in almost every major statistical defensive rushing category: YPA against, TD against, rushes of 20+ yards against, rushes of 40+ yards against, and fumbles forced.

Dan 0-rlovsky
Dan Orlovsky is on pace to become the only player to be on two winless teams.  He was a member of the 2008 Detroit Lions and is currently on the Indianapolis Colts.  Rumors are spreading that Orlovsky is going to start next week… so I guess the fate is in his hands.  He’s probably looking for a different type of luck than the rest of the Colts squad.

  1. Captain Typo says:
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    The 49ers have yet to allow a touchdown on the season

    Impressive stuff

  2. Brian says:
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    I have Jags defense and they came up huge for me this week. Problem I have now whether I use my waiver claim to drop them for the Patriots this week.

    Although secondary seems like bunch of guys off street, leaning Pats just because they’re home and Palko’s first start.

    What do you think?

  3. Rodger says:
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    Trying to pick between starting Decker and Laurent Robinson this week. On one hand, Decker goes up against a tired Jets D that’s had little time to learn the Broncos offense, but on the other Robinson has the big upside. Thoughts?

  4. Chris says:
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    Posted in Doc’s thread, but would also like your opinion —

    Poor planning on my part…..I have both Jimmy Graham and Jacob Tamme on BYE this week at TE. Waiver wire is not looking good and I’ve got a head to head matchup to break the current tie for 1st.

    In a +1 PPR, who’s your guy for this week only: Fasano vs BUF, Pitta vs CIN, or Scheffler vs CAR? All 3 have been sneaky productive the last few games…
    Reply

  5. barker says:
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    12 team league trade ( deadline fri. )

    i give vick colston graham i get eli fitz jacobs ingram

    QB schaub ( donesky )
    RB rice jstew felix
    WR harvin manningham decker vin brown ford
    TE hernandez gresham

  6. Fernando says:
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    Friday the 18th is the trade deadline.

    10 team standard scoring league: Qb, wr, rb, te, w/r, w/r, w/r, k, def and 6 on bench.

    My team: Qb Romo, wr R. White, Manningham, rb Peterson, Gore + Hunter, S. Jackson, D. Murray, Bradshaw, J. Battle, D. Thomas, te Celek, Ballard, K Hanson, Def matchups

    Yesterday, I got two trade offers
    > I’ve been offered Welker and Antonio Gates for R. White, Manningham, Battle. Gate is looking old. I don’t know.
    > I’ve been offered a chance at Hernandez, but may come at a cost. My opponent made a trade proposal Hernandez for Murray. He says it’s to get my attention and he would be willing to work something out. Also, in his note, he mention Ballard . I’m not selling Murray.
    > Side note: S. Moss is on waivers and Starks, Greene and Fred Jackson were offered as possible trade ideas by another owner.

  7. Fernando says:
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    Sometime, we type the wrong stuff. In note #7 I meant to write te Fred Davis. Fred Jackson is a no brainier. Sorry.

  8. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Brian:

    Stats: Both teams are facing terrible offenses, so go with the better defense, right? Slight advantage – Jags

    Gut: Jags. I think the solid defensive outing vs. the Jets was a byproduct of a struggling Mark Sanchez. I’m also going out on a limb and say the Patriots were more prepared for the Jets last week than a rookie QB for a non-divisional team this week. Personally, I would go with the better defense against a reliably bad offense.

  9. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Rodger:

    Stats: Both have been fairly productive and are playing very good pass defenses. But based on the quarterbacks throwing them the ball and overall upside, I’d say Robinson has a slight edge.

    Gut: I think Decker scores again, although not much else.

    With that said, I think the smarter play is Robinson. Even if I think Decker may find the end zone, Robinson’s score should be close enough to Decker’s to warrant a start. He is the safer play and holds more upside, the Decker thing is just if you are feeling… ballsy.

  10. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Chris:

    Stats: Fasano. He is the only starting TE on the list, plus Buffalo allows the 20th most points against fantasy tight ends.

    Gut: Fasano is questionable. If he plays, you have to start him. If not, I think Pitta gets a catch or two more than Scheffler on the day.

  11. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @barker:

    Stats/Guts/Common Sense: Do it.

    Vick’s most likely out for at least this week. Since Schauby Boy is injured for the year, grabbing Manning now gives you a solid start for this week. However, be careful of Manning’s rough schedule come playoff time.
    Fitz being better than Colston almost solidifies the deal for me.
    Graham is great, but Gresham and Hernandez are more than adequate backup options. Jacobs and Ingram can also help you play the match-up game as a RB2 option after Rice.

    For someone who has a tricky QB spot, I think this deal is a solid option.

  12. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Fernando:

    Stats/Guts/Common Sense: Only look at the first deal. I would do it. As of now, your roster would probably fill out: Romo, Peterson, White(or Manningham), Celek, Gore, SJax, Murray. With Manningham (White) and Bradshaw on the bench.

    Manningham and White for Welker, despite the 2 for 1, favors the Welker side. Think about it. Either Manningham or White will be on the bench (theoretically) in any given week. So it is essentially a 1 for 1 deal.

    Battle for Gates is the remaining part of the equation… and even if Gates is old, I don’t see anyone passing him over for Battle… especially with a core of RB like Peterson, Gore, SJax and Murray.

  13. barker says:
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    thank you kevin this is a great article good luck to you ROS

  14. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @barker:

    Thanks, barker! Always a pleasure

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