Hey Razzballers!  I’m assuming everyone not living in Chicago or Dallas had a great Sunday.  Per my usual routine, I checked the next week’s schedule after the late afternoon games so I can do my research on the spreads, highlight a few good games, recheck fantasy matchups, etc.  This week is a textbook late bloomer week.  There is not one excitable game in the first 10 games of the week, which now incorporates a Saturday night game as well.  However, once you reach the late afternoon Sunday games, there is only one unappealing game the rest of the week: Browns @ Cards.  Other than that, the other 5 games should be gems.  As always, here are some tidbits of statistical and factual greatness that hopefully compensate for a sluggish week 15.

Timothy Richard Tebow… You are RIDICULOUS!!!
Through the first three quarters Tebow was 3 of 16 for 45 yards and a pick.  In the fourth quarter and overtime he was 18 of 24 for 191 yards and a touchdown.  Since taking over the starting roll week 7, he has won 7 of 8 with 6 second half comebacks.  He has a 111.0 QBR in the fourth quarter and a 113.6 QBR when the game is within 7 points in the fourth quarter.  Oh yeah, Miller, Prater and the rest of the team played good too…

Despite Tebow’s cold-blooded clutchness, the Broncos have the worst 4th down conversion percentage in the league (14%).

The 49ers have not allowed a rushing TD on the season.
Yes, I still think this is absurd.  They are playing PIT in the Monday night game this week.  The 49ers end the season with PIT, SEA and STL.  Finishing the whole season without allowing a rushing touchdown is starting to look like more of a reality.

Does anyone remember the Bills’ early season run?
I’m sure Fitzpatrick does after that fat contract extension.  But there is a reason for the Bills’ collapse: the Bills’ were +11 in turnovers in their 4-1 start, -11 in going 1-7 since.

Congratulations for Rob Gronkowski for being an absolute BEAST.
Rob Gonkowski has the new single season record for receiving touchdowns by a tight end, currently standing as 15.  Crazily enough, the record was almost seen as an afterthought to an absolutely ridiculous couple of broken tackles.  If you haven’t seen the highlight, please youtube it or something – it was LaGarrette Blount esque.

Speaking of Gronk, the Patriots have the league lead in almost every meaningful receiving category: receptions, yards, yards/game, longest TD, total TDs and 1st downs. 
Welker is the leader in every one of those categories except for TDs where Gronkowski reigns supreme.

Remember last week when I said the Jags have not scored over 20 points in a game?
They dropped 41 points on the Cardinals week 14.  Interim Head Coach Mel Tucker must read my article.  Yeah, let’s go with that.

Chris Johnson is kind of important to the Titans’.
Since 2009, when CJ2K rushes for 100 plus yards, his team is 17-7.  When he fails to eclipse the century mark, his team is an abysmal 4-17.

Texans are the 5th team to ever start 3 different QBs in a season and make the playoffs.
Schaub, Leinart, Yates. 

Jordy Nelson likes his home cookin’.
In every home game this season, Jordy Nelson has at least one TD reception.

Who needs a running back and pass defense nowadays?
Patriots and Packers fans will watch more than 10,000 collective yards (offense and defense) through the air this season.  The Patriots are on pace for 10,413 collective yards and the Packers are on pace for 10,083 collective yards.  These are arguably the best 2 teams in the league.

With all of the talk about Rodgers, Brees is completing 70.9% of his passes, and on pace to break the record for completions and passing yardage in a season. 

  1. anthony says:
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    Hey man I’m in a 12 team non ppr standard scoring keeper league (Sounds Crazy!)

    First year of the league and the commish made the playoff schedule with 2 weeks per round. I was number 1 overall and I have a 10 point lead heading into next week.

    I need help with who to start at qb this coming week. Cam or Eli?
    Also my weekly starters are Arian and Lesean at Rb, and Megatron and Welker. Flex is the One I have trouble with.

    I have Harvin Beanie Desean and Santana to choose from, but Megatron has been doing so poorly and I’m even questioning if he should start next week.

    Maybe harvin and beanie because of his matchup with the browns. Just wanted to see a different opinion.

    Thanks a lot.

  2. The Big Ole TDs says:
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    You:

    …Remember last week when I said the Jags have not scored over 20 points in a game?
    They dropped 41 points on the Cardinals week 14….

    Me:

    How did the Jags drop 41 on the Cardinals when they dropped 41 on the Bucs?

  3. Charles says:
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    QB issues: Ben and Ponder. I don’t think it’s a good idea to wait for Ben on MNF. So I need a QB. Do I stick with Ponder v NO? Or switch to Grossman @NYG, Freeman v DAL, Moore @BUF, or Locker @IND?

  4. Harley says:
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    Deep league, .5 ppr rb, 1 ppr wr, need to pick 7:
    -reggie bush @ buf
    -chris johnson @ indy
    -felix jones @ tbb
    -beanie wells vs cle
    -antonio brown @ sf
    -dez bryant @ tbb
    -julio jones vs jax
    -mike wallace @ sf

    I honestly could come up with an argument against each; im so torn; please help

  5. farcus says:
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    as the number 1 seed in my playoffs i’m granted the blessingcurse of choosing my opponent this week. in a PPR league with bonuses for long TDs would you rather face team gronk:

    Rex Grossman, Wsh QB
    Shonn Greene, NYJ RB
    Marion Barber, Chi RB
    Johnny Knox, Chi WR
    Greg Jennings*, GB WR
    Victor Cruz, NYG WR
    Anquan Boldin, Bal WR
    Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
    Dolphins D/ST
    Robbie Gould, Chi K

    (obviously Jennings will be replaced, guy has ben tate/andre roberts on the bench, or demayius thomas/driver on the wire)

    or team “will be facing stout defenses”:

    Eli Manning, NYG QB
    LeSean McCoy, Phi RB (NYJ)
    Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB (SF)
    Nate Burleson, Det WR
    Vincent Jackson, SD WR (Bal)
    Santonio Holmes, NYJ WR (Phi)
    Nate Washington, Ten WR
    Brandon Pettigrew, Det TE
    Chargers D/ST
    Nick Novak, SD K

    stout defenses is projected for fewer points, but seems more upsidey to me. any thoughts?

  6. Nick says:
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    Love these Numbers posts–keep ’em coming!

  7. Chris says:
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    Fanduel….+.5 PPR, pick 1 for this week.

    Baldwin @ CHI, Walter vs CAR, Damian Williams @ IND, or Driver @ KC?

    Also, who’s the better bet vs NE? Demaryius Thomas or Decker?

  8. John says:
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    Santana Moss vs. NYG or Dez Bryant vs. Tampa next week?

    Leaning Moss cause he’s the only guy left and Bryant has to deal with Austin and Robinson, thoughts?

  9. Cheeeeeeze says:
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    I have a great receiving core, but never choose the right guys to start… so what 3 do you go with here: Fitzgerald, Wallace, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith (car)???

  10. Pierre says:
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    10t H2H with 2 starting QB’s, no playoffs. I’m in a 3-way tie for 1st leading the tiebreaker with total points +200.

    Stafford is my QB1. My problem is QB2. I’ve got both Hasselbeck and Orton. Which should I drop? And of the following who should I pick up:

    Kolb/Skelton, Locker, Yates, Orlovsky, Gabbert

  11. Matt says:
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    @Cheeeeeeze I’d go Bryant, Brown, and Smith. Bryant is going to be a benefactor of a ripped up Bucs D, Brown is going to see the bulk of the targets against the Niners and the Panthers are going to have to air it out against the Texans to be successful and it’s likely that Newton is going to be looking Smith’s way.

  12. Chuck says:
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    PPR. Start A. Brown over D. Bryant in Flex?

    Opponent has Romo.

  13. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @The Big Ole TDs:

    I just got owned. Unfortunately there is no spell check for mental lapses. I guess I have too much Larry Fitz on the brain and TB is just so easily forgotten. Nice catch though and thanks for actually reading.

  14. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @anthony:

    Personally, I would start Eli. I hate how he plays a divisional opp. but I have too much respect for the Texans’ defense.

    In my eyes, you can’t not start Calvin Johnson, no matter how frustratingly absent he’s been in recent weeks. His upside and skill set are the highest in the league. Stick him in there and pray. (General rule of thumb: stick with the men who got you to where you are). For the flex I would ride Wells’s match up and pray for a bounce back week.

  15. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Charles:

    Don’t decide match ups based on when they play, you will lose more than you win doing it that way. With that said, I would play Grossman. He’s been surprisingly consistent (sans Jets, understandably) as of late and the Giants have had the worst pass defense in the league over the past 3 weeks.

  16. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Harley:

    So essentially you are just benching 1…
    Julio Jones is the odd man out. He has been bust a hell of a lot more than he has been a boom, and he is playing the 3rd best fantasy pass defense in the league, coming off a big win vs. the Bucs. I’m thinking Jones is a bust again this week.

  17. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @farcus:
    I’d take my chances with Stout Defenses. I think Mendenhall runs into a road block against SF, Nate Washington might be a game time decision which could screw with his thought process, and I fully expect the Chargers defense to get less points than Miami’s. The Bills have been terrible as of late. Plus Pettigrew over Gronk and I think Marion Barber plays with a vengeance after last week. Just rambling with my thought process… but yeah, I’d go stout.

  18. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Nick:

    Appreciate the kind words, Nick!!

  19. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Chris:

    Baldwin, but it’s close. And I would assume Thomas has the better rapport with Jesus than Decker does right now.

  20. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @John:

    Agreed. Moss’s match up is way too juicy to not exploit.

  21. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Cheeeeeeze:

    I would sit Bryant and Smith.

  22. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Pierre:

    Drop Hasselbeck for Locker

  23. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Chuck:

    A Brown over Bryant is the right move.

  24. anthony says:
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    Thanks man.
    I was leaning the same way as you.

  25. Charles says:
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    @ Kevin Ray: Thanks for the feedback. I was more concerned about the MNF game time than the 49ers, because if Ben didn’t play I wouldn’t have a QB. I’ll try to drop Ponder for Grossman on the waiver wire. The Giants played the Packers, Saints, and Cowboys so I’m not sure how much their last 3 games translate to a reasonable expectation for the Redskins. Fingers crossed.

  26. Chris says:
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    Thanks for the earlier reply. I’m down to 1 active team still alive and kickin in normal fantasy, so I’ll be giving these final decisions my full attention (which is not necessarily a good thing)!

    +1 PPR, +5 bonus at 100 rushing/receiving yards.

    Pick 2: Wallace @ SF, Fitzgerald vs CLE, Julio Jones vs JAX
    Pick 1: Mathews vs BAL, Felix @ TB, Spiller vs MIA, J-Stew @ HOU
    Pick 1: BAL D/ST @ SF, SEA D/ST @ CHI

    I know the “don’t bench your studs” mantra, but is there any real reason to believe Wallace is gonna beat his bracket coverage this week? His stats are dwindling since Week 7 and I’m considering goin with Fitz-Jones instead. Far from sold on it though.

    Mathews has been fantastic lately, but I’m not at all expecting good things from him against BAL. I’m strongly leaning towards using Felix instead against TB’s swiss cheese run D. Could see some argument for Spiller/J-Stew too, but they’ve both got problems.

    As for the Ds, this league is very much sack/defensive TD heavy (+2 and +10 respectively). And those are 2 things the new Bears’ offense are likely to give up in bunches. Still will probably use PIT, but I’d like your input.

  27. Fernando says:
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    My starting line up for wk 15

    QB: Romo, Wr: Welker, Rb: Peterson or Gerhart, TE: Gates, W/R: ? , W/R: ? , W/R: ? , K: Hanson, Def: ?

    Normally, my choices of who to start would be simple, but the match ups, injuries, and recent performances has left me confused.
    Consequently, I need help filling three W/R slots. Please help and can you explain your choices. Thank you.

    Here are my options for the three W/R slots: S. Moss, C.J. Spiller, S.Jackson, F. Gore, A. Bradshaw, R. Grant.

    As for the DEF I can play one SEA, CINN, or TENN?

  28. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @anthony:

    No problem Anthony. Good luck and thanks for the question.

  29. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Charles:

    Anytime. Thanks for the question.

  30. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Chris:

    For the WR, it depends on how you assess the other team. If you think you have a worse team, play Fitzgerald and Jones. If you think you have an equal to better team, I would play Fitzgerald and Wallace. Jones is primed for boom or bust games, and if you are going to need a big boom then take a chance, but if you don’t… then I would take the safer route in Wallace… especially because Jones is playing the 3rd best fantasy pass defense.

    Agree with you on the Felix Jones pick.

    As for the defenses… I like SEA. I’d ride the hot streak.

  31. Kevin Ray

    Kevin Ray says:
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    @Fernando:

    Moss Spiller Jackson.

    You have to exploit Moss’s juicy matchup v the Giants. Spiller is as much as a receiver as he is as a rb, so he has two opportunities to produce. Jackson.. more so that I dont like Gore (tough matchup and the team is resting him for playoffs), Bradshaw (sneaky timeshare is on the horizon) and Grant (trust Jackson more).

    Bengals D – Rams have been terrible offensively and the Bengals defense is coming off of a big game.

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