One of my favorite things about fantasy football is the tracking of average draft position (ADP). I don’t care that it’s only mid May and the NFL draft is only a couple weeks in the books. I am always interested in seeing were the mind of the so called “experts” and the “average Joe’s” (me) areĀ at when it comes to valuing certain players. I believe it’s never to early to being able to spot trends among players or positions that will be of valuable information come your draft or drafts. Now that we got that out of the way, I would like to talk about one trend that seems to have caught my eye in early drafts. It has to do with the wide receiver group, in particular, the older players and them being undervalued that is looming large at the moment.

The first player on the list is . Did you know that in six games with Carson Palmer (missed 10 due to injuries), he caught 5.3 passes, for 80.5 yards and .3 touchdowns on 6.8 targets per game? He caught at least five passes and recorded 70 or more yards in four of those games. Right now, I see that Fitzgerald is the 43rd WR off the board in points per reception (PPR) drafts.

The second player on the list is Anquan Boldin. He has been in a San Fransisco 49ers uniform for two years now. In those two years, he has averaged 5.3 catches, 70 yards and 0.4 touchdown,s with 8.1 targets per game (32 games). He has had 20 games with at least five catches and 15 games with 70 or more yards. As of right now, he is coming off the board as the 47th WR in PPR drafts.

The third player is Steve Smith for the Baltimore Ravens. To start the year, he caught 5.8 passes, for 95.5 yards and 0.7 touchdowns with nine targets per contest (weeks 1-6). He caught no less then five balls in every game, recorded at least 101 yards and one or more touchdowns in four of those games. I would like to note there is no more Torrey Smith (49ers) and I wonder, will Dennis Pitta even play? Plus, you have to add in the fact that they brought in Marc Trestman to be the offensive coordinator (he likes to throw the football… a lot). Right now, he is the 50th WR off the board.

The final player is Marques Colston for the New Orleans Saints. From weeks 12-17 (six games), he provided us 4.2 catches, with 61 yards and .7 touchdowns on 6.7 targets per game. He caught four or more passes and at least 65 yards and one touchdown in four of those games. I would also like to add that the Saints have traded the likes of Jimmy Graham (Seattle Seahawks) and Kenny Stills (Miami Dolphins). Right now, he is the 60th WR off the board in PPR drafts.

It’s the same cycle every year, the headlines are always about the players with a new team, the rookies coming into the league or that sleeper nobody knows about. These players will be widely overvalued, causing many teams to fall out of contention quickly. Yet, all along we have a group of players who are not changing teams, they might be long in the tooth and are not on any drafter’s sleeper list… These are the players that will end up being core pieces for teams that are in contention for the championship. That’s what these four players can and will represent come draft day. I will be targeting them to fill my WR depth, and I’ll probably be getting a great discount on my returns.

 

You can follow Dase on Twitter @F_w_DaseorDays.

  1. Dorian says:
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    Hey Dase, interesting article. Think I’ll definitely target those guys if they are still kicking around in my standard leagues I participate in. You can never go wrong having depth.

    Speaking of “depth”, I just recently joined a 25 team (5 cuts, 3IR) Dynasty league and got a really bad team. Just wondering how you think my rebuilding process is going during our four round rookie draft (still ongoing).

    Original team (required starters):
    QBs(2): Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer
    RBs(3): Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Jerick McKinnon, James Starks, Maurice Jones-Drew
    WRs(4)/TEs(2): Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Ted Ginn Jr, Brent Celek, Anthony Fasano, Damaris Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Lance Kendricks, Brandon Lloyd, Denarius Moore, Troy Niklas, Jeremy Ross
    DEF(1): New England

    Current team (required starting):
    QBs(2): Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston(R1.02)
    RBs(3): Jerick McKinnon, James Starks, Melvin Gordon(R1.03), Terrance West, Joseph Randle, T.J. Yeldon(R1.11)
    WRs(4)/TEs(2): Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Ted Ginn Jr, Brent Celek, Damaris Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Lance Kendricks, Brandon Lloyd, Denarius Moore, Troy Niklas, Marqise Lee, Charles Clay, Amari Cooper(R1.06), Phillip Dorsett(R3.02)
    DEF(1): New England

    The only pick I’ve traded away was my second rounder, which brought back Marqise Lee and Charles Clay. Everything else was from trading away Alex Smith (R1.03), LeSean McCoy (R1.06 & West) and Matt Forte (R1.11 & Randle). I think considering how bad the team was, I managed to salvage it. Even with my 4th pick to go.

    What do you think? My tight end situation is terrible, I admit.

    • Fantasy with Dase or Days

      Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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      @Dorian: I first want to say thank you for taking the time to read my work.

      Im still trying to wrap my mind around 25 teams and starting two quarterbacks. I would say the first thing that jumps off the screen for your roster. The fact you have three starters at quarterback. I’m going to assume (it’s not always good to assume) but this gives you a huge (that’s not doing it justice)leg up on your competition. Your starters/depth at QB and RB will more then make up for any lack of desirable options/production at tight end for this year.

      I

      • Dorian says:
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        @Fantasy with Dase or Days:
        I usually try to read as much as I can, so thanks for the reply Dase. I don’t always reply, but I try to at least say thanks! Also, the team I got was a previous owners. Since it is dynasty, unless they were expanding, you inherit the team you previously had.

        So, even though I’ve got terrible production at TE, I probably shouldn’t move Palmer then, right? I’ve been thinking of doing it, just so that I could perhaps fill out the team a little more. There’s still Jesse James from the Steelers and few other possibles out there. I could always grab Grayson Garrett from the Saints who’s currently the “heir apparent” as a replacement since Brees likely will be gone due to his contract sooner or later.

        I’m not really thinking I’ll be too competitive even with the overhaul I made hence why I’m considering it.

        • Fantasy with Dase or Days

          Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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          @Dorian: I would never say “no” to trading a player. It all depends on the return. That being said, you are in a position that again (I’m assuming) other teams in your league don’t have and that’s three QBs with a starting gig locked. I also have a post coming out soon about one Carson Palmer and it’s really going to get you feeling very good about him.

          I would definitely go and grab the rookie QB for the Saints. In this format you can never have enough QBs. They (I’m assuming) have huge trade value in this type of format.

          I’ve never competed in a dynasty format or a 25 team league of any kind. That being said, I don’t see why or would understand how your team is not going to be competitive this year.

          • Dorian says:
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            @Fantasy with Dase or Days:
            You know, I’m not sure why my other reply ended up outside of this, but oh well.

            Looks like I won’t be trading Carson Palmer this season anyways. The offers I got were just underwhelming. 3rds or 4ths for this year only and nothing better and/or prospective players that I wasn’t interested in. Also I lost out on a lot of my board with round 3 nearly done. I’m just hoping Artis-Payne is still somehow able to fall to me.

  2. Dorian says:
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    Thanks for that. So far the offers I’ve gotten haven’t instilled me to move him, so I’m probably not. And you are right about the QBs.

    The reason I don’t think I’ll be too competitive is simply due to lack of depth at WR and TE. I mean, yes my wide out starters are good, but I will need to cover byes and stuff and I think that’s going to bite me because after the main guys, my team is really weak in comparison. Hence why I don’t think I’ll be competitive. Though when I say that, I mean going for a championship.

  3. S>H says:
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    Hey Dase, good read, I am new to fantasy football, I have pretty much zero QB’s on my team. I took over a crappy team. As it stands I have Vick, Whitehurst,Locker,S.Hill and McCoy, do you think any of them will have any value next year or should I just release the bunch.

    Second question I do have the first overall pick who do you think is the better pick Winston or Mariota.?

    And the last question as I do need a QB I have a offer of my Whitten and Spiller for McFadden and S.Bradford do you think I should pull the trigger on that.?

    Thanks in advance

    • Fantasy with Dase or Days

      Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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      @S>H: Good morning. I first want to say thank you for taking the time to read my stuff and thanks for the kind feedback.

      Question 1.) I would release all those quarterbacks.

      Question 2.) At this moment, I would pick Winston. He has the likes of Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and ASJ to throw the football. I will note that it is close and the legs of Mariota will be the reason that I could not blame you if you went that route.

      Question 3.) If Bradford is the QB for the Philadelphia Eagles, I like his opportunity to produce top 15 production at his position. But, his injury history and the fact you have Sanchez and a Tim Tebow in the mix. Plus, you add the fact that I like Spiller (filling the Pierre Thomas role) more then DMC (struggles really bad in zone blocking scheme) and I would rather have J. Randle (6.7 YPC last year) if I’m going to own a Dallas Cowboys running back at this moment. I would decline that trade offer.

      I hope these response will prove to be helpful/useful for you and your team. I also would like to say that any questions you have or come across down the road. To please go and hit me up in the comment section at anytime and I will always provide my insight and help to the best I can. I’m glad to have another person in the fantasy football community and get prepared for it to take over all your free time:) lol

        • Fantasy with Dase or Days

          Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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          @S>H: It’s funny you bring up that offer, as I pondered a Witten for Bradford trade myself. I would totally jump on that trade and you can easily fill Wittens production with a Jordan Reed type for your TE spot.

          • S>H says:
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            @Fantasy with Dase or Days:

            Is there a chance Foles mot the starter in St.Louis, and is there any chance of starting QB sleepers.

            • Fantasy with Dase or Days

              Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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              @S>H: At this point in time I would say that Foles is locked into that starter spot.

              You have a guy like Joe Flacco, who now has Marc Trestman as his OC (he likes to throw the football a lot). Then there is Carson Palmer and I will be having a post dropping on him. He has been posting quality QB1 production over last 14 games. Don’t forget about Teddy Bridgewater the Minnesota Vikings QB. He threw for at least 209 yards in five of final seven games, tossed one touchdown in all seven games and a least two in four of those games. Then you have Alex Smith (who has been a favorite of mine for more years then I can remember now). Has placed in the top 18 of quarterbacks last three years.

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