The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 11

 

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 13
2 7
3 7
4+ 25
Grand Total 52

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup:  Stephon Gilmore

 

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 4.8 70.5 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 45 0.3 7.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip in production. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. 2020 has been a different story as Will Fuller has shined in his new role. This includes finding the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bum knee it is fair to question how effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11 making Fuller an ok start.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900

On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX

 

Team: Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: Julio Jones

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Marshon Lattimore

 

Julio Jones vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 22 7.2 109.5 0.5 17.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 16 6 81.3 0.4 13.4
vs. Marshon Lattimore 1 3 79 0 9.4

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Even though the Saints and Falcons are division rivals we have yet to see the Marshon Lattimore vs. Julio Jones matchup really play out over the last two seasons. Back in 2018 the Saints used Marshon Lattimore on Calvin Ridley and tried to double Julio with Eli Apple as the primary CB. Lets just say that didn’t go well as Julio went for 11-147. In 2019 the Saints wised up and used Lattimore on Julio; however, Lattimore left the game earlier due to injury and only played half the snaps. Still Julio only finished with a modest 3-79 all of which came after Lattimore left the game.  Later in the year Julio missed the second game vs. the Saints so you see we truly don’t know.

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Only playing 31% of the snap vs. Julio in that 2019 matchup we truly don’t know how Lattimore will hold up vs. him for a full game. That being said, Julio had zero receptions on 1 target so viewing him as his usual WR1 self this week is not advised. Most teams won’t have the depth to fade Julio and with his career 13.4 PPG vs. shadow coverage, Julio should do enough to get the job done in season long leagues

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,100 / DK $7,500

Julio is priced as a top 5 option on both sites which makes him a DFS fade this week. At that price point Julio would need to have a monster week of 20 points or more to return value which he has only done 4 times in 16 career games in shadow coverage. Players I would pivot to include Keenan Allen vs. NYJ and Adam Thielen vs DAL.

 

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams

WR1: Mike Evans

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jalen Ramsey

 

Mike Evans vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 26 5.5 90 0.8 16.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 15 3.9 64.1 0.4 10.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Week 11 will be the first time that Mike Evans and Jalen Ramsey have faced each other in their careers. Evans has faced 5 shadow coverage matchups already this season going up against notable CBs Marshon Lattimore (2), Jaire Alexander, James Bradberry and not so notable Rasul Douglas. Without including the Douglas matchup, Evans has only gone over 10 points in .5 PPR in one of those 4 games with a season average of 7.6 PPG.

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Jalen Ramsey has not shadowed many WRs this season…actually 1 to be exact. That came last week vs. D.K. Mecallf where he held him to 2-28 on 4 targets. Earlier this year the Rams elected to not use Ramsey on Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson and DeVante Parker so personally I am not 100% sold that it will happen this week as the Bucs now have Antonio Brown on the other side. Another key reason why Evans might not see a lot of Ramsey is his slot usage. Last week he saw 46% of his snaps from the slot splitting time with Godwin which should help him avoid Ramsey enough to make him fantasy viable in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,000

Even though I said Evans will be fantasy viable I didn’t say he will be a fantasy stud! This is why he is a DFS fade. On both sites Evans will cost you well over 10% of your budget and even if the Rams don’t use Ramsey to shadow him they are still very tough vs. WRs. Players I would pivot to include Robby Anderson vs. DET and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX.

 

Team: Carolina Panthers

Opponent: Detroit Lions

WR1: D.J. Moore

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant

 

D.J Moore vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 40 4.4 65.1 0.2 10.1
Vs. Shadow Coverage 1 4 96 1 17.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

D.J Moore finally had his first official shadow coverage matchup of his career last week vs. Carlton Davis and the Tampa Bay Bucs. Moore responded securing 4-96-1. Prior to Moore last week Davis was able to hold both Michael Thomas and Devante Adams to under 10 points in .5 PPR. Overall, this season Moore has been up and down with 5 games over 90 yards and 5 games with 65 or fewer while only scoring in 3 games in 2020. Good news for Moore is he only has 1 other shadow coverage matchup after this week rest of season.

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

Desmond Trufant’s return has allowed Detroit to use him in shadow coverage in back to back weeks with mixed results. Last week he did allow Terry McLaurin to get 7-95, but that came on a day where Alex Smith attempted 55 passes and threw for 390 yards with the Washington Football Team trailing 24-3 halfway through the 3rd quarter. The week prior Trufant held his own completely shutting down Adam Thielen 2-38. Of course, Moore isn’t a must sit player, but slipping outside the top 24 is realistic in a game where both teams should be competitive in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $5,600

On FanDuel Moore is priced as a top 10 option which makes him an obvious fade in week 11. Meanwhile DK is trying to entice us with a realistic price point outside the top 24. Now at that range Moore could be worth the risk as Stafford get Kenny G back and could put up points on the other side. That being said, Mike Williams vs. NYJ and Jakobi Meyers vs HOU are cheaper and do have much better matchups on the week.

 

Team: Los Angeles Rams

Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR1: Robert Woods

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Carlton Davis

 

Robert Woods vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 39 5.4 70.6 0.3 11.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 1 7 67 1 16.2

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Not a lot to talk about when it comes to Robert Woods vs. shadow coverage as he has only seen it once since 2018. That came in week 17 last year when he squared off vs. Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Woods got the best of Pat Pete securing 7-67-1. The main reason why Woods is in the report this week is he is starting to play more on the outside. Early on in 2020 Kupp and Woods were getting equal amount of snaps in the slot. However, that has changed over the past few weeks as Woods only runs about 1/3 of his routes on the inside. This should allow the Buccaneers to use Carlton Davis on Woods enough to impact him in week 11.

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

A lot of hedges this week I know, but none of these matchups seem like slam dunks either way. However, that doesn’t mean Woods is an auto-start either. Prior to D.J. Moore’s solid game vs. the Bucs, Carlton Davis shut down notable WRs Devante Adams and Michael Thomas holding both under 10 points in .5 PPR. The saving grace that could keep Woods afloat and why he’s not a full sit is his solid usage inside. Even though he is no longer at the 50% mark, Woods should kick inside enough to provide flex value in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,000 / DK $6,000

Bobby Woods is getting the love on both sites as he is inside the top 15 for both FanDuel and Draft Kings. At that price point we can’t justify giving him a go as there are plenty of other option in much better matchups this week. Player I would pivot to include Diontae Johnson vs. JAX and Amari Cooper vs. MIN.

 

The best way to beat shadow coverage……a quick slant!

Jarvis Landry vs. Darius Slay

Landry has rarely seen shadow coverage in his career due to his high usage rate in the slot. That hasn’t change even with Odell out for the season. A bigger issue for Landry is how tough the Eagles have been vs. inside WRs all season. This combination of Slay and lack of production in the slot makes Landry a sit in week 11.

T.Y. Hilton vs. Jaire Alexander

Hilton just hasn’t been the same this season as he doesn’t look 100%. This has led to a lackluster 2020 campaign. This year 1 team has shadowed Hilton and with younger WRs out-performing him it might be best to fade him even if he doesn’t see Alexander all day.

 Breshad Perriman vs. Casey Hayward

The Chargers look to be getting back Chris Harris this week which means the Chargers might choose to keep Hayward on 1 side of the field. The Chargers have been one of the toughest defenses vs. outside WRs this year and even after a big game 2 weeks ago vs. New England, Perriman is best left on benches in week 11.

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