The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 13

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish	Total
1	17
2	8
3	9
4+	27
Grand Total	61

 

Team: Atlanta Falcons

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: Julio Jones

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Marshon Lattimore

Julio Jones vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	22	7.2	109.5	0.5	17.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage	16	6	81.3	0.4	13.4
vs. Marshon Lattimore	1	3	79	0	9.4

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Ok, let’s try this again! After Lattimore missed week 11 and Julio left early we still don’t have much to go on when these two play each other. Back in 2018 the Saints used Marshon Lattimore on Calvin Ridley and tried to double Julio with Eli Apple as the primary CB. Let’s just say that didn’t go well as Julio went for 11-147. In 2019 the Saints wised up and used Lattimore on Julio; however, Lattimore left the game early due to injury and only played half the snaps. Still Julio only finished with a modest 3-79 all of which came after Lattimore left the game.  Later in the year Julio missed the second game vs. the Saints so you see we truly don’t know how this matchup will pan out.

Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Julio dealing with another injury in 2020 it is hard to trust him as his usual #1 self in week 13. The good news for Julio is Lattimore has only shadowed Mike Evans in 2020 and with his counterpart Janoris Jenkins out the Falcons should be able to move the football more this week. Most fantasy teams won’t have the depth to fade Julio and with his career 13.4 PPG vs. shadow coverage, Julio should do enough to get the job done in season long leagues

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,000 / DK $6,600

Julio is priced as a top 8 option on FD making him a full fade at that price. On DraftKings you are able to get him at a reduced cost at roughly top 16 value, but even at that price playing on a bum wheel it might make him tough to trust. Players I would pivot to include Allen Robinson vs. DET and Adam Thielen vs JAX.

 

Team: Seattle Seahawks

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: D.K. Metcalf

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

D.K. Metcalf vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	18	4.4	75.1	0.7	13.7
Vs. Shadow Coverage	9	4	65.3	0.4	11.2
Vs. James Bradberry	1	2	36	1	10.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

D.K. Metcalf has clearly leveled up in 2020 making a mockery of Stephon Gilmore, Darius Slay and Tre’Davious White this season. However, that doesn’t mean Metcalf is immune to top shadow coverage as he has yet to top 50 yards vs. Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson. Metcalf is always a threat to score but his low yardage totals make him more of a borderline WR2/3 when facing top CBs then his usual top 5 self.   

Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

I will lead this section by saying I won’t be sitting Metcalf…HOWEVER….Last season Metcalf and Bradberry squared off and is it possible to call it a tie? Metcalf did score in the game, but his 2-36 line was one of his worst reception/yardage games of the season. This year Bradberry is holding opponents that he shadows to just 8 PPG in .5 PPR. This includes only 1 TD when in his shadow coverage. The tougher matchup is one thing, but the bigger worry for Metcalf is the Seahawks are huge 10.5 home favorites which implies this game could get out of hand early. This could result in lower pass volume for Seattle making Metcalf more likely to finish lower than expected in week 13

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,500 / DK $8,200

D.K. Metcalf is priced as a top 5 option on both sites so fading him is probably recommended this week. Metcalf has turned it on as of late vs. shadow coverage but his 11.2 PPG vs it is still not worth starting in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Adam Thielen vs. JAX and Michael Thomas vs. ATL.

 

Team: Los Angeles Rams

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

WR1: Robert Woods

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Patrick Peterson

 

Robert Woods vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	41	5.6	72.3	0.3	11.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage	1	7	67	1	16.2
Vs. Patrick Peterson	1	7	67	1	16.2

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

No that is not a typo Woods has only been shadowed once since 2018 and yes it was against Patrick Peterson. That game went well for Woods as he was able to secure 7-62-1. However, this isn’t the same Patrick Peterson after missing most of the 2019 with a suspension. This season Patrick Peterson has slowed down D.K. Metcalf and DeVante Parker but allowed a big game to Stefon Diggs. We could argue that Woods is more on the Diggs side, but for the most part Peterson has been the lone bright spot in the secondary for Arizona.

Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

I don’t want to make an assumption that Peterson playing at a higher level this season will overshadow Wood’s performance from last year which is why he is still a flex player. The current line for this game is 2.5 so the game should be close and would rule out any garbage time for the Rams. This is why Woods is more of a flex play this week as Peterson should be locked in on him all afternoon.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $5,900

Woods is priced as a top 24 WR on both sites which is most likely the right price point for him in week 13. However, we want to find value for DFS not an appropriately priced guys on DFS to win our weeks so even at a low-end WR2 value, I would look elsewhere in week 13. Players I would pivot to include Jarvis Landry vs. TEN and Cooper Kupp vs. ARI.

 

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: Los Angeles Rams

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jalen Ramsey

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	27	7.4	96.3	0.4	16
Vs. Shadow Coverage	18	6.4	75	0.6	14.1
vs. Jalen Ramsey	3	6.7	79	0.3	13.2

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

I don’t know about anyone else but its adorable that Hopkins and Ramsey followed each other from the AFC South to the NFC West. I mean it is the holiday season and to see this level of friendship is fantastic. This reunion has been kind to Hopkins as of late who holds a 2-1 edge over Ramsey over the past two seasons (Ramsey traded to LA before second game in 2019). In there only matchup last season Hopkins torched Ramsey for 12-147 on his way to a 20 point performance. However, prior to that outburst it was much more modest games for Hopkins who was held to 50 yards or fewer in the prior two games.

Week 13 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

After not using Ramsey in the shadow coverage role all year he is has been assigned to D.K. Metcalf and Mike Evans in each of the past two games. In his coverage both players have been held to under 50 yards. Evans last week got away from Ramsey enough to find the end zone, but Hopkins might not be as lucky. This season Hopkins has only played 8% of his snaps on the inside which means he will see a lot of Ramsey in this one. Overall, Hopkins has done enough in shadow coverage to warrant a start, but he will once again be in the WR3 range in week 13.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $8,000 / DK $7,800

DeAndre Hopkins is still getting that elite WR1 treatment this week as both sites have him as a top 8 option. At that price vs. Ramsey it is best to look elsewhere as his 13 PPG vs. Ramsey over the past two season wont get it done for DFS purposes. Players I would pivot to include Adam Thielen vs. JAX and Michael Thomas vs. ATL.

 

Team: Green Bay Packers

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Davante Adams

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

 

Davante Adams vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent	Games	Rec	Yards	TDs	PPG
All Other Opponents	24	7.8	95.4	0.9	18.9
Vs. Shadow Coverage	12	6.8	83.5	0.6	15.2
Vs. Darius Slay	2	8	116.5	1	21.7

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

If we take a moment and just look at Adams’ production vs. shadow coverage by itself his 15 PPG is still WR1 numbers. Now when you look at his production vs. Darius Slay you realize how much of a mismatch Adams really is vs. top CBs. This year Adams has only seen shadow coverage twice which has resulted in slightly below average 12.9 PPG. Granted this is still great for season-long fantasy but for Adams it is slightly disappointing.

Week 13 Recommendation – Start

Did you just see what D.K Metcalf did to Slay? If not, go look at the box score. No need to pretend like I have some innovative stats to say why you should start Adams. His 21.7 PPG vs. Slay since 2018 is all you need to know.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $9,500 / DK $9,000

The Packers are 8.5 favorites at home vs. a struggling Eagles team. Adams high price point might be a problem if this game gets out of hand early, but based on his historical stats vs. Slay he could return value even at this ridiculous price. The only recommendation I have is maybe using Adams in 50/50s or multipliers vs. tournaments in week 13.

 

The Best Way To Beat Shadow Coverage …….. A Quick Slants

Keenan Allen vs. Stephon Gilmore

The last time these two teams faced in the 2018 playoffs Gilmore traveled with Allen all over the field. This included squaring off in the slot.  In 2020 however Gilmore barely travels inside only seeing 15% of his snaps there which should open up opportunities for Allen. This season Brandin Cooks and D.K. Metcalf found success vs. Gilmore, but Allen is still just a low-end WR2/flex vs. the Patriots.

DeVante Parker vs. William Jackson

Bengals CB William Jackson is starting to gain traction again as a shadow corner facing Darius Slayton (0-0) and Terry McLaurin (5-84) each of the last two weeks. If Ryan Fitzpatrick plays Parkers is still a solid start, but if Tua Tagovailoa is cleared for this game it might be best to pivot in week 13.