The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 6

 

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 5
2 3
3 3
4+ 15
Grand Total 26

 

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Mike Evans

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Mike Evans vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 24 5.6 92.8 0.8 17.1
Vs. Shadow Coverage 12 4.1 69.3 0.4 11.6

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Mike Evans has only seen shadow coverage once in 2020 and that came in week 1 vs. Marshon Lattimore. In that contest Mike Evans was limited and went 1-2-1. Overall the his production has been vastly different when he has faced notable shadow corners as his career WR1 production drops to the WR3 range. The 11.6 PPG vs. notable shadow corners includes a monster performance vs. Janoris Jenkins where he scored 41 fantasy points. If we remove that game, Evans’ career mark is 9 PPG vs shadow coverage.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

This week Mike Evans opponent is Green Bay’s top CB Jaire Alexander. Alexander has shadowed two WRs this season including Adam Thielen (6-110-2) and Calvin Ridley (0-0-0). Ridley was clearly limited by his ankle but holding him to zero points is ridiculous based on how Ridley has been playing this year. In his career Alexander hasn’t slowed down many players as over the last two seasons players have averaged over 16 points in .5 PPR. In this matchup Alexander is giving up nearly 7 inches to Evans and with how well Brady and Evans are connecting this season in the red zone, Evans is close to lock for a TD in this one.  

DFS – Price FD $7,600 / DK $6,900

Mike Evans is priced as a WR5 on both sites and with this game projected to be a potential shootout Evans could be in for a big week. Plus the extra time off after playing on Thursday night should bode well for all injured pass catchers including Evans making him a solid DFS play in week 6.

 

Team: Tennessee Titans

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: A.J. Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

A.J. Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 19 3.6 61.9 0.5 10.7
Vs. Shadow Coverage 2 1 19 0 2.4
Vs. Houston Texans 2 6 119 1 20.9

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As discussed in last week’s article A.J. Brown didn’t show well vs. notable shadow corners Marshon Lattimore and Stephon Gilmore. However, not all CBs are created equal as the Bills tried to use Josh Norman in week 5 to slow down A.J. Brown with top CB Tre’Davious White out and Brown secured 7-82-1 on him.                       

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

A.J. Brown absolutely dominated the Texans as he went for over a hundred yards and a score in each game. However, things could be different as the Texans have decided to use top corner Bradley Roby to shadow top #1 WRs. Roby has held notable WRs Marquise Brown, Chase Claypool and D.J. Chark under 7 points in .5 ppr. That being said, Brown’s dominance last season vs. Houston with Roby on the roster would make it insane to sit him even with Roby playing at a high level.  Call it a hedge but the WR3/flex seems like the most realistic outcome. 

DFS – Price FD $6,500 / DK $5,600

Even after a nice week 5 Brown is being priced as a mid to low WR 2 on each site. Brown does offer a much better price point on DraftKings and with his upside he could be in play this week vs. Houston. I would monitor the status of Corey Davis as if he remains out it should allow Brown to see more targets. If Davis is in I would prefer to play similarly priced players like Julian Edelman vs. DEN and or buy-up to Justin Jefferson vs. ATL.

 

Team: Washington Football Team

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 13 4.5 71.3 0.5 12.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage 6 4.7 67.5 0.3 11.1

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Terry McLaurin has faced two shadow coverage matchups this season. This includes a week 1 matchup vs. Darius Slay (3-51) and in week 2 vs. Patrick Peterson (7-125-1). The week 1 matchup vs. Slay came in a win vs. Philadelphia and with the game tight all-day McLaurin wasn’t able to shake loose from Slay all afternoon. In week 2 the end result was a monster performance from McLaurin, but the truth is 3-60-1 came in the 4th quarter when the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores in garbage time.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

The Giants as a whole haven’t been shutting down opposing WRs, but James Bradberry looks to be doing his part when tasked to shadow opposing #1 WRs. This season alone Bradberry has faced Allen Robinson (3-33), Kendrick Bourne (4-63) and Amari Cooper (2-23) holding all three players to WR4 or worse weekly finishes.  With the spread being close at 2.5 I expect game flow to allow Bradberry to stick with McLaurin all day which makes him a tough player to start in week 6.

DFS – Price FD $6,900 / DK $5,700

On FanDuel Terry McLaurin is priced as a WR1 which makes him completely hands off, and at that price tag you can grab studs Allen Robinson vs. CAR or Juju Smith-Schuster vs. CLE. On DraftKings McLaurin is priced reasonably as a top 20 option, but facing shadow coverage will cap his upside. Players I would pivot to on DK include Laviska Shenault vs. DET (if Chark is out) and Jarvis Landry vs. PIT.

 

Team: Baltimore Ravens

Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: Marquise Brown

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Darius Slay

Marquise Brown vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 16 3.6 50.9 0.5 9.9
Vs. Shadow Coverage 3 3.7 29.3 0 4.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Last season Marquise Brown faced shadow coverage twice vs. Stephon Gilmore (3-48) and Tre’Davious White (3- (-2)). That’s right negative 2 yards on 3 receptions.  It goes without saying that neither matchup was good, and his 5 PPG difference is alarming. Early this season Brown faced Bradley Roby and went for 5-42 on a day that the Ravens didn’t throw much in a blow out win. However, his 42 yards and and 8.4 yards per reception were the 2nd fewest in a game this season.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

This week’s opponent is Darius Slay who has been great when assigned to top WRs this season. This includes holding Terry McLaurin (5-61) and A.J. Green (5-36) outside the top 36 WRs. Of course, Green hasn’t been himself this season, but the two weeks prior he saw 9 and 13 targets and with Slay on him that dropped to just 6. Finally, with all the injuries to the Eagles secondary outside of Slay other weapons can win in this matchup.

DFS – Price FD $6,300 / DK $6,500

On FanDuel Brown is priced as a top 20 option which seems to be his ceiling in a tough game vs. Darius Slay. At a similar price point Devante Parker vs. NYJ and Justin Jefferson vs. ATL have much easier matchups on the week. As for DK, Brown is priced as a top 10 option which is probably because we just saw Chase Claypool make this Eagles defense look insanely bad. Brown will struggle to return top 10 value and players like Juju Smith-Schuster vs. CLE and DeVante Parker vs NYJ have much easier matchups on the week.

 

Team: Green Bay Packers

Opponent: New Orleans Saints

WR1: Davante Adams

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Carlton Davis

Davante Adams vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 18 7.6 89.5 0.7 17.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage 10 6.7 87.5 0.6 15.7

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It has been a tough season for Adams owners only getting 1 full game out of their top pick. The good news is he should be back to 100 percent after the bye week. Adams has been nothing short of amazing vs. shadow coverage only falling below 10 points in .5 PPR once since 2018.  This includes games vs. Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson who are all much tougher opponents then Carlton Davis

Season Long Recommendation – Start

Due to his ridiculous target share Davante Adams will always be a start in season long leagues even against shadow coverage. This game looks to be a potential shootout in Tampa Bay with the Bucs looking to have all their top WRs finally healthy as well. In 2020 Carlton Davis has been assigned to cover Michael Thomas (3-17) and Allen Robinson (10-90) and with the former banged up in that contest I expect Adams to get his in week 6.

DFS – Price FD $9,000 / DK $8,000

Devante Adams is priced as the #1 WR on the week vs. Tampa Bay and probably rightfully so; however, in order for him to return value at these lofty price points, Adams would need to have a blow-up game. Even though Adams has been good for season long he has only eclipsed 20 points in .5 PPR once which means your money is probably better spent else where on FanDuel. On Draft Kings which is full PPR I wouldn’t mind sprinkling him into some lineups, but with Calvin Ridley vs. MIN and Adam Thielen vs. ATL playing in much better matchups it makes more sense to spend up for them instead in week 6.

 

Team: Denver Broncos

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Tim Patrick

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Stephon Gilmore

 

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

If you read last week’s article then this section might look familiar, but…why reinvent the wheel am I right? Patrick in week 4 had his first 100-yard game while securing 6 receptions for 113 yards and a TD. This had led to a double digit jump in his ownership heading into week 5. Patrick has become the primary weapon on the outside with Jerry Jeudy now running most of his routes out of the slot. This means that Patrick will be tasked with the much tougher matchups the rest of the season. This includes this week as the Broncos travel to New England to face the Patriots.

Season Long Recommendation – Sit

With Stephon Gilmore returning from COVID this matchup just got a lot tougher for Patrick in week 6. It might seem like Jerry Jeudy would draw Gilmore, but Jeudy is playing over 80% of his snaps in the slot which means he will avoid coverage from Gilmore most of the day. Patrick on the other hand plays 80% of his snap out wide and with his early season success look for him to draw a lot of Gilmore this week.

DFS – Price FD $5,400 / DK $4,500

Patriots and Denver game is now back on the main slate; however, it’s best to look elsewhere if you want a DFS dart throw. If you are looking for players to pivot to Preston Williams vs. NYJ and Olamide Zaccheaus (feel free to check the spelling) if Julio Jones is out are in the same price range and are recommended DFS dart throws in week 6.

 

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: Arizona Cardinals

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Patrick Peterson

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 22 6 82.1 0.5 14.2
Vs. Shadow Coverage 14 4.4 57.9 0.4 10.2

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Last week Amari Cooper saw his first shadow coverage matchup of the year vs. James Bradberry and struggled on his way to a 2-23 performance. Historically Cooper has been serviceable vs. shadow coverage as his 10 PPG still puts him on the flex radar on a weekly basis. However, the issue with Cooper has been his consistency as only 6 of 14 games have been over 10 points in .5 PPR.

Season Long Recommendation – WR3/Flex

The Cardinals as a team have been very tough vs. WRs this season as they have allowed the 5th fewest points to the position on the year. Patrick Peterson so far has only been tasked to follow Terry McLaurin and as discussed earlier in the article McLaurin didn’t do any damage until the game was out of reach late in the 4th quarter. Cooper isn’t a must start but Kyler Murray and Arizona should be able to put up points which should force Andy Dalton to throw more in this game. We have seen other top WRs including Kenny Golladay (6-57-1) and Robby Anderson (8-99) do enough and this is why I would keep Cooper in your lineups especially at home in week 6.

DFS – Price FD $7,600 / DK $6,800

With this matchup set for Monday night Amari Cooper is off the main slate, but his top 10 price point should make him hands off even if you decide to incorporate all the games this week. Outside of two games Cooper has not consistently gotten over 20 points in fantasy when facing shadow coverage which is what you would need to get value about his current price. Players I would pivot to include Mike Evans vs. GB and Kenny Golladay vs. JAX.

The best way to beat shadow coverage…….a quick slant

Tyreek Hill vs. Tre’Davious White

Tyreek Hill plays over 50% of his snaps in the slot, and with Tre’Davious White banged up, keep rolling with Hill.

Kenny Golladay vs. C.J. Henderson

Henderson has only been tasked to shadow Corey Davis this season as he plays most of his snaps on one side. That coupled with Golladay dominating in these matchups makes him a start in DFS and season long in week 6.

49ers WRs vs. Jalen Ramsey

As discussed last week Ramsey has not been shadowing opposing #1 WRs; however, the Rams have been one of the toughest matchups for WRs in 2020. With all the pass catchers back healthy it will be hard to pick which one could have a solid week. Finally, with Jimmy G struggling in his return, I would avoid all 49ers WRs in week 6.

  1. Mike says:
    (link)

    Who do I start in the Flex? (1/2 pt PPR)

    – Jamison Crowder
    – Devonta Freeman
    – AJ Brown

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