Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues, best value on the inter-web. As in-season trades heat up, make sure to utilize Razzball’s FREE custom trade analyzer.
Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)
O/U 52 , TB -4.5 (favorites)
Implied Score: TB 28.5 – ARI 24
The 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals are fresh off extended rest following their near dethroning of the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in week 9 on Thursday Night Football. Kliff Kingsbury if flying the NFL’s 3rd fastest paced offense to the East coast to take on Jameis Winston and the 4th most points per game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fantasy fireworks will be on full display in the highest projected point total for week 10.
Kyler Murray gets his shot at a Tampa defense that is surrendering the 2nd most points per game and passing yards per game, while allowing the fewest rushing yards per game and 2nd fewest yards allowed per rush attempt. Setting up nicely for Kyler and the Arizona passing attack, who ranks 5th in pass attempts per game. Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs and has allowed the previous QB fantasy finishes over their previous 5 games, QB1 – QB10 – QB14 – QB4 – QB8. Coming in as Rudys projected QB5, Kyler is tied for 6th highest priced QB on DraftKings ($6,500). Regardless of the outcome, Murray presents a safe and high floor with his rushing abilities. Kyler is 2nd in the NFL in QB rushing yards on 6.2 rushing attempts per game, and is averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry. Eat the chalk in cash game lineups, but consider a pivot in tournament play. Expect higher ownership numbers for Murray this weekend following his 23 point explosion against the top ranked 49ers defense.
Chase Edmonds hasn’t been spotted at practice for a 2nd week in a row and is trending towards the inactive list. The Arizona Cardinals released Alfred Morris earlier in the week, which bodes well for David Johnson‘s return since his EARLY week 7 exit. Last week, Chris Carson was a bet on volume play in a daunting matchup against the top rushing Tampa Bay defense. Carson was able to break 100 yards on the ground, but handled 80% of the running back touches in Seattle. With David Johnson reported back in the fold, don’t expect another RB2 finish out of Kenyan Drake. Both will eat into each others playing time, making it a headache to project. Two weeks prior to DJ’s exit, it was nearly a 70-30 snap share in favor of Johnson over Chase Edmonds. The question will be, does DJ return to his lead duties with Drake now in the mix? Razzball’s Rudy Gamble projects Johnson to finish as this weeks RB12 and Drake RB34 in PPR formats. Johnson gets the edge against Tampa with his receiving usage in a high scoring affair, and Tampa’s defense that is a pass funnel. TB has surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game and is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per rush attempt. Their previous 3 outings, Tampa Bay DST has limited opposing backs to RB24, RB39, and RB8 PPR finishes. Fire up DJ as a RB2 with RB1 upside and Kenyan Drake as a viable flex play with 6 teams on bye, but temper expectations. Tampa has muffled Christian McCaffrey for a RB42 (wk2), Saquon Barkley RB38 (wk3), Derrick Henry RB39 (wk8), and Chris Carson RB24 finishes(wk9). I don’t trust any of the coach speak coming out of Arizona after the DJ fiasco in week 7, proceed with caution.
Allowing the most receiving yards per game and giving up the 5th most receptions per game, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk will get their opportunity to feast against the Tampa Bay secondary. TB is generously allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Kirks snaps increased from 42 to 54 in his 2nd week back from injury, leading all Cardinal pass catchers. Following last weeks disappointment, Kirk’s DK ownership number will be relatively suppressed. Kirk is offering a $300 discount from his his counterpart Larry Fitzgerald, making Kirk the preferred entry into this high scoring affair. Rudy project’s Kirk to finish as this weeks WR24 in PPR formats, and Larry Fitzgerald WR31. Larry Fitz has failed to exceed 8 PPR points in his last 3 outings and is averaging an uninspiring 4.1 fantasy points per game over the three week span. TE Maxx Williams only recorded 2 targets in week 9, but logged the 3rd highest snap count out of the Arizona pass catchers. TB has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TE’s, making Williams an intriguing dart throw at the TE position for those desperate in deeper formats. I rather stream MIA TE, Mike Gesicki, this week if you find yourself scrapping through the TE junk yard. Gesicki pops as Rudys TE8 in week 10. KeeSean Johnson is third in WR snaps and targets, but found the field for less than 45% of Arizona’s offensive snaps last week (52% on the season). Andy Isabella hauled in his lone target for an 88 yard score, but logged an uninspiring 13 snaps. Don’t chase the fantasy points with Isabella until he finds the field more in the coming weeks. Damiere Bird is 4th in WR snaps but was a healthy scratch last week. After Fitzy and Kirk, it’s difficult to make a case for rostering any other receiver in Arizona.
Jameis Winston continues to ranks atop all NFL QB’s in average completed air yards and average intended air yards, per NFLs Next Gen Stats. 12th in the NFL in completed passes 20+ yards and tied for 5th most completed passes over 40 yards, Jameis gets his shot against an Arizona defense that ranks 2nd in the league in most completed passes allowed per 20+yards. Despite his league leading 12 interceptions, Jameis Winston is a top 5 play at the QB position this week. Jameis is Rudy’s projected QB3 in week 10.
Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to produce top tier WR fantasy numbers, with Evans finally passing Godwin in overall WR fantasy points scored on the season (Godwin WR4 / Evans WR2). The play has been to the cheaper of the two in DFS lineups. Evans has trailed Godwin in pricing, but for week 10 Godwin is providing a $200 discount. Continuing his hold on the 3rd WR spot behind Evans/Godwin, Breshad Perriman found pay-dirt in week 9 on a flukey pass intended for another receiver that happened to deflect in the air and top in Perriman’s hands. Perriman did jump from 4 targets in week 8 to a season high 8 in week 9. His total snaps moved in the opposite direction of his targets, recording 48 snaps (60%) which is down from the 58 (69%) snaps he logged the prior week. Don’t let the week 9 box score trick you in to rostering Perriman, the usage doesn’t support the consistent fantasy production we seek. OJ Howard finally returned to practice this week after being held out since October 23rd and is trending to be a full go this weekend. The Cardinals defense is surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing TE’s, making Howard a viable streaming option in season long leagues. OR an interesting play for those looking to punt the TE position on DraftKings, Howard comes in at basement level pricing of $3,300.
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) November 4, 2019
The weekly see-saw continues at the running back position in Tampa is over, following Arians’ anointing of Ronald Jones as the lead back in Tampa. Just in time for a favorable matchup against the Arizona defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt and the 10 most rushing yards per game in the NFL (126.9). The Cardinals DST has surrendered the following RB finishes over the last 4 weeks, RB29 – RB3 – RB9 – RB4. Ronald comes in as Rudy’s projected RB18 in PPR formats and is a huge discount in DFS. He is the 36th priced running back at $4,300, jump on this play in week 10 before the pricing spikes for week 10. With 6 teams on bye this week, Jones is a more than viable start at the RB position.
Leaves you lineups questions below in the comments, or @ me on twitter. Good luck in week 10!