Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues, best value on the inter-web.
New Orleans Saints (11-3) @ Tennesse Titans (8-6)
O/U 50.5 , NO -2.5 (favorites)
Implied Score: NO 26.5 – TEN 24
Fresh off their record setting Monday Night Showcase, the New Orleans Saints head east to take on the red hot Tennessee Titans. Despite the cloudy narrative surrounding Drew Brees‘ production outside of the Mercedes-Benz Dome, Brees is 5-1 in road games this season and scored 27.1 fantasy points in his one full game in an open air stadium (wk 11 @ TB). Drew Brees is a bet on hall-of-fame talent and experience QB1 play in week 16’s tied-for-highest projected point total. Temper expectations for a high ceiling from Brees. He is displaying a slight decline in passing efficiency on the road this season, averaging 6.4 yards per completion away compared to 8.3 ypc at home. The Titans are allowing 16.7 fantasy points over their previous 4 games, and have surrendered only one top 10 QB finish since their bye week. The Titans defensive unit will be up against Brees’ league leading completion rate (75.8%). His 70% road completion rate is still top in the league, tied for 4th best. Drew comes in as a back end QB1 in Rudys quarterback projections for week 16 (QB12 17.53 points).
RB11 on the season (overall FLEX31), Alvin Kamara is failing to live up to his early 1st round fantasy draft price. The 24th ranked PPR RB since week 12, Kamara is seeing a decline in production over his previous 3 games. He has failed to crack the top 20 at the position and is averaging a pedestrian 10.9 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. Luckily for Kamara, the Titans defense is allowing 27.7 fantasy points per game to the running back position over the last four weeks of football. Despite ranking 22nd in rushing yards (678), Kamara’s passing usage is saving his season from reaching full bust-mode. Kamara ranks 3rd in receptions, 5th in targets, and 6th in receiving yards amongst NFL running backs. In PPR formats, Kamara’s floor is safe in Vegas’ top projected shootout. Rudy has Alvin finishing as the RB3 with 20.43 fantasy points this weekend. Averaging less than 8 total touches a game over his last four, Latavius Murray removed himself as a threat to Kamara’s production. Murray has failed to break the top 40 at the position in 2 of his previous 3 games, and only 1 appearance in the top 24 since their week 11 bye. Kamara makes for an interesting DFS play, ownership numbers will be relatively low as players chase the passing game in this matchup and following Kamara’s quiet month of football.
Not much needs to be said about the #1 overall scoring fantasy wide receiver in 2019. Michael Thomas trails Marvin Harrison’s single season reception record by only 11 catches. Now that Sean Peyton made sure Drew Brees broke the passing TD record held by Peyton Manning, it’s time for him to turn his attention to the best WR in the game. The Titans are allowing the 8th most receiving yards per game this season and are without their two starting cornerbacks. Michael Thomas should continue to be ranked as the #1 overall WR in fantasy football heading into championships weekend. Outside of MT, neither Ted Ginn Jr nor Tre’Quan Smith are receiving enough passing volume to consider for season long lineups and to trust in DFS. Both have failed to break the top 40 in PPR scoring and are averaging less than 2 receptions per game over the last month of football. Jared Cook is the only pass catcher that can be trusted outside of MT and AK. Cook is averaging a healthy 15.8 fantasy points per game and is TE5 over the last 4 weeks. He is averaging 5.0 targets per game and 75.5 yards per game dating back to week 10. Meanwhile, Tennessee is allowing the 12th most fantasy points to the TE position this season. I’ll take Cook placing higher than Rudys TE13 projection. Our senior editor, Matt Bowe, ranks Cook as his TE7 for week 16.
Over their last 5 games, Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans are averaging 34.2 points per game which is up nearly a full 10 points on their season average of 24.6 ppg. The Titans are 4-1 since week 10 and 4-1 hitting the over in these games. Fantasy QB4 over the last month, Ryan Tannehill has finished top 6 in 3 out of his last 4 games. During this stretch, Tannehill is 1st in yards per completion (10.8) and 9th in passing yards per game 277.8. While the Saints have allowed two top 6 QB fantasy finishes in their last 4, over 300 passing yards in 3 our of their last 5 games and an average of 279.0 passing yards per game dating back to week 11. The production has cumulated from Ryan’s NFL 2nd best passer rating, 5th best completion percentage (71.5), and connection with breakout rookie wideout, A.J. Brown. Despite the recent success, Razzball’s Rudy Gamble has Tannehill falling back down to earth this week. Projecting Ryan to finish week 16 as the QB19. Matt Bowe is going against the machine, Rudy, and has Tannehill ranked at QB10 heading into week 16. I have to agree with Bowe, the efficiency and consistent production from Tannehill has him locked in as top 12 QB1 play. Tannehill has shown the ability and athleticism with his feet as well. He leads the league in QB rushing TDs over the last 4 weeks (3). Also, the Saints are surrendering nearly 3 more points a game (24.2) over their last 5 compared to their season average of 21.6 ppg. Plus, Ryan will have plenty of time to throw the ball with the absence of two defensive studs on the Saints d-line. DE Marcus Davenport and DT Sheldon Rankins are both out with foot injuries. Sign me up for Tannehill who is averaging 27.0 fantasy points per game over the last month.
PPR RB3 over the last month, Derrick Henry is 1st in the league in rushing yards per game (124.2) and 2nd in rushing attempts per game (21.0). In season long, Derrick is a bet on volume back-end RB1. But in DFS, there is cause for concern. Henry managed through a hamstring injury in practice all last week leading up to a favorable matchup against the Houston Texans. Henry handled a full workload, 21 carries, but failed to break 100 yards for the first time since week 9. Also, Derrick had his lowest yards per carry (4.1 ypc) dating all the way back to week 7. Already a non-participant in multiple practices this week, it’s difficult for me to confidently start Henry in cash or tournament lineups this weekend. Rudy has Herny falling outside the top 12 (QB13) despite being the 4th highest priced running back on the main slate.
Arguably the hottest fantasy receiver, not name Michael Thomas, AJ Brown is the WR2 in PPR scoring over the last month. During this stretch of games, Brown is 1st in receiving yards per game (111.8), 1st in receiving TDs (4), and averaging a healthy 7.2 targets/g. Coming off a monster 13 target game, AB has emerged as a clear WR1 in this Tannehill lead offense. Despite facing off against Marshon Lattimore, AJ Brown should be viewed as a high upside WR2. Lattimore has lacked the shutdown label he earned in recent seasons. Per Footballoutsiders.com, Lattimore ranks in the middle of the pack in almost every coverage stat out of 82 eligible players. In the 12 games Lattimore has started this season, he is 40th in yards allowed per pass, 34th in success rate (54%), and 47th in yards after completion. Coming off a recent injury, Lattimore should not discourage owners from firing up Brown on Championship Sunday. Rudy projects Brown as the WR10 in PPR formats in week 16. Corey Davis has yet to break double digit fantasy points dating back to week 7. He is averaging an uninspiring 2.0 receptions per game and 5.6 fantasy points per game over his last 4 games. I don’t think there is any format where you are starting Corey Davis. Jonnu Smith is only on the radar in the most contrarian of DFS lineups. Smith is averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game over his last 2 matchups and ranks as TE8 during this span. The Saints have allowed 3 top 8 tight end fantasy finishes out of their 4 last games. Rudy projects Jonnu as the TE16 this week.
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