Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues. Best Value on the inter-web. As in-season trades heat up, make sure to utilize Razzball’s FREE custom trade analyzer.
Houston Texans (3-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
O/U 55 , KC -4.5 (favorites)
Implied Score: KC 29.5 – ATL 25.5
Opening the week as the highest over/under of the season at 55.5, HOU @ KC now sits as the tied-for-2nd highest point total in 2019 at 55. A clash between offenses that rank #4 (KC) and #9 in points per game. Poorly buried by the NFL in the early slate of games, everyone get their popcorn ready early this Sunday. Both teams rank in the top 10 in total offensive plays ran this season, #3 KC and #8 HOU, and find their way onto this weeks shootout game preview.
Rewarding early round QB drafters with only his 2nd top 5 QB fantasy finish on the season, DeShaun Watson dominated with a 47.74 point fantasy outing and the #1 overall fantasy quarterback finish in week 5. Watson gets his shot against a Kansas City defense that surprisingly ranks 20th highest in passing yards (12th fewest) allowed per game and #22 most receiving yards per game (#11 fewest), but surrounding the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Watson has the elite athletic ability and offensive weapons at his disposal to give us a good shot of this years first back-to-back QB1 finish, the Chiefs have surrendered 28.6 points per game over their previous 3 matchups, which would rank 5th in most points allowed per game in the NFL. Watson’s elite rushing abilities will have an opportunity to feast against a KC defense that ranks #3 in rushing yards allowed per game, 155.8. Watson is not a debate in season long formats, but should be considered in those looking to pay up for QB in DFS.
Being +4.5 point road dogs, if the Texans are able to stay competitive throughout the course of the game then Carlos Hyde will also get his shot against a defensive unit allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game (155.8 rush yds per game) and surrounding the 13th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Running back #26 in PPR scoring, averaging a healthy 4.2 yards per carry, and scoring 2 touchdowns over his past 3 outings, Hyde is a viable flex play with RB2 upside. Duke Johnson, the preferred passing down back in this offense, is an interesting deeper league PPR sleeper. Almost an even split in offensive snap percentage, Duke is on the field for 51% of offensive plays behind Hyde’s 52.5%. Even though it’s close to an even snap %, Duke is only receiving rushing opportunities on 18% of his offensive snaps and targeted 7.6% of the time while on the field. His usage could receive a bump this week if Houston falls behind, and is forced to abandon the run game. Duke should be viewed as a low-end RB3/flex play.
#10 in team receiving yards this season, both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller will receive their opportunity to shine this weekend. Kenny Stills has been limited all week with the same hamstring that had him inactive in week 5. There is chance he suits up, if he is able to practice in limited fashion on Friday, but he is trending to be a game time decision. Hamstring injuries like to linger and flare up if not enough time is allowed to heal, I wouldn’t trust Stills in any lineup even if he were to play this weekend. Keke Coutee was an after-thought in this offense even with Stills sidelined, 5th in offense snaps behind both TEs, but was able to salvage his low usage with 75 receiving yards on 3 receptions (4 targets). Coutee is a low-end flex desperation or deeper league play in PPR leagues, if Stills sits again. After Sundays fantasy explosion, Will Fuller now is 4th in the NFL in air yards and 11th in total receiving yards, and finds himself in the top 10 in WR PPR fantasy scoring. Fullers game breaking speed gives him a high weekly ceiling that we want exposure to in our season long and DFS lineups this weekend. Even though he ranks 9th in total air yards and 8th in WR targets, Deandre Hopkins has not returned on his 1st round draft price. Hopkins does lead his team in targets and snaps, and will get his opportunity to record his 2nd top 5 WR fantasy finish in this weekend shootout. Rudy has Hopkins finishing 3rd in PPR scoring, and Fuller barely missing the WR1 range with a projected WR13 finish. Both Darren Fells and Jordan Akins are desperation dart throws at the Tight End position, with Akins getting the slight edge over Fells. Darren leads Akins in snaps, 218 to 194 and targets, 15 to 13. Both are projected outside of the top 20 at the position this weekend.
The Texans’ defensive unit is fresh off a game where they allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, finishing 2nd overall in QB fantasy scoring in week 5. Patrick Mahomes is poised for a bounce back from his uninspiring QB11 finish (18.54 fantasy points), relative to his #1 overall QB draft price, finishing behind both Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton. Mahomes was hobbled throughout the game with an apparent ankle injury, but is not at risk of missing playing time. The Texans D/ST ranks #21 in rushing yards allowed a game (#11 fewest rush yards/gm), which funnels production to the passing game. Houston DST is allowing the 7th most offensive yards/gm, #8 most pass yds/gm, and 5th most receiving yds/game.
Trending towards a game time decision, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that Tyreek Hill has a “realistic” shot at playing this weekend. If so, Tyreek Hill is Rudy’s projected WR4 in PPR scoring. Sammy Watkins has missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday, he’ll need to upgrade to at least limited for anyone to consider starting him against HOU. Sammy left week 5 early, on the Chiefs opening drive, with a hamstring injury. Sammy would need to practice in full on Friday to be a confident start in fantasy this weekend. If he winds up being a game time start, then temper expectations as hamstring injuries like to linger and easily flare up. With Watkins a long shot to suit up, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman are all boom-bust flex plays. After recording only 3 snaps in week 4, Pringle finished 2nd in WR snaps and 1st in team targets in week 6, and led the chiefs WRs in fantasy production. Pringle popped for 1TD, 103 rec yards, 6 rec on a team high 8 targets for 22.3 PPR points. Pringle was on the field for 77.8% of the Chiefs offensive snaps, trailing only Robinson (92.1) and ahead of Hardman (61.9). My rankings this weekend for this wide receiving core: Hill>Robinson>Pringle>Hardman (assuming Hill plays and Watkins sits).
Leading all starting TE’s in air yards, receiving yards, and aDOt (average depth of target), Travis Kelce stands to benefit the most from Hill returning and Sammy Watkins a likely inactive in this weekends highest projected point total. Rudy’s projected week 6 TE1, Travis has the highest chance of scoring a receiving touchdown (90%) out of any TE, per Rudys projections. Kelce leads all KC pass catchers in targets with 43 on the season, trailed by Watkins with 38. Kelce was only a couple of dropped passes away last week from rewarding fantasy owners with outproducing his projections.
Looking full speed after missing a couple of weeks due to injury, Damien Williams returns to weekly RB2 consideration in PPR formats. Williams led all KC backs in snaps by a large margin (Damien 35, McCoy 14, Darrel 14) in a game where KC failed to get much going on the ground and suffered an injury on the offensive line. Left Guard, Andrew Wylie, excited Sundays bout against the Colts with an ankle injury, but lucikly avoided any major damage as reported by Tom Pelissero. Rudy projects Damien to finish week 6 as the RB12. I believe this is his celling this week against a respectful Texans run defense, but I am comfortable firing him up as a RB2 with RB1 upside. The Houston fantasy defense has given up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Predicting LeSean McCoy’s usage will be a headache until we see the dust settle from Damiens return. McCoy is Rudys RB40 this weekend, you are starting only in spots where you are forced to. Darwin Thompson should be dropped in all formats. Darrel Williams should only be considered in deeper formats, or only a handcuff bench stash for Damien or McCoy owners in 12 team leagues.
Leave your feedback and questions below in the comments. As always, you can find me on twitter. Good luck in week 5!