The Shootout – Week 9

Projections sourced from Razzball’s own Rudy Gamble. Make sure to subscribe to Razzball suite of tools to help you dominate your leagues, best value on the inter-web. As in-season trades heat up, make sure to utilize Razzball’s FREE custom trade analyzer. 

Vegas odds and betting lines sourced from www.vsin.com. Player/Team stats and news sourced from www.fantasydata.com and www.nfl.com. Air yards data pulled from www.airyards.com

Tampa Bay Buccaneers _(2-5) @ Seattle Seahawks _(6-2)

O/U 52 , SEA -5 _(favorites)

Implied Score: SEA 28.5 – TB 23.5

A clash between defenses surrendering the 2nd (TB) and 6th (SEA) most receiving yards per game carries the highest point total for week 9. 

Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston ranks #1 in average completed air yards and #1 in average intended air yards. Winston and Head Coach Bruce Arians offense likes to push the ball down field. Tied for 3rd in the NFL in completed passes over 40 yards, Jameis gets his shot against a Seahawks defense that ranks tied-for-10th in most completed passes allowed over 20+ yards. Despite his league leading 12 interceptions, Jameis Winston is a viable starter in all formats. Jameis is Rudy’s projected QB6 in week 10. 

Both top 11 in the NFL in total targets, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin rank in the top 10 in fantasy scoring at the WR position (Godwin WR3 / Evans WR6), and overall top 12 among flex eligible skill players. Coming off a game where the SEA D gave up, to a Matt Schaub led Falcons offense, a league leading 460 receiving yards. Fantasy owners need to forget the 10 point fantasy outing from Chris Godwin, fire him and red hot Mike Evans with confidence. The 3rd wide receiver in Tampa is an afterthought, Breshad Perriman is finding the field for only 37% of the teams offensive snap, and behind RB Dare Ogunbowale, TE’s Cameron Brate and OJ Howard in targets. Cameron Brate is the only pass catcher worth considering a start on fantasy rosters outside of Evans/Godwin. OJ Howard has yet to practice dating back to October 23rd and is trending to miss his 2nd game in a row. The Bucs decided to activate practice squad TE Jordan Leggett on Wednesday of this week, indicating the lack of confidence in Howard’s ability to suit up this weekend. The Seahawks defense is surrendering the 4th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s, making Brate a viable streaming option in season long leagues. OR an interesting play for those looking to punt the TE position on DraftKings, Brate comes in at basement level pricing of $3,100.

The weekly see-saw continues at the running back position in Tampa. After dominating snaps in week 4, Ronald Jones found himself behind both Peyton Barber and pass-catching-tool Dare Ogunbowale in snaps the previous 2 weeks. Expected to play from behind as -5 point road dawggss, Barber and Ronald are desperation plays at the running back position against a SEA defense that has only allowed 1 running back to rush for over 70 yards this season and is allowing less than 1 rushing TD/per game (.88) to opposing running backs. Rudy gives Barber a 34% chance of finding the end zone to Jones’ 19%, and has Barber outscoring Jones by .98 ppr points- finishing as RB37 (Jones RB44).

NFL MVP candidate, Russell Wilson leads the league in passer rating (115), ranks 9th in completion percentage, and the overall QB2 in fantasy scoring. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Wilson is 4th in both Average Completed Air Yards and Average Intended Air Yards. Similar to their opponent this weekend, Wilson and the Seahawks offense likes to push the ball down the field when they pass the ball. Wilson is Rudy’s projected QB1 for week 9. 

In season long formats, most are forced to start the fantasy RB8- Chris Carson. But Seattles, 9th ranked rushing yards per/gm and 4th most rushing attempts per game, rushing attack will be tested against the leagues BEST run defense. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are #1 in multiple defensive categories versus the run. TB has allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt (3.0), total yards (480), and rushing yards per game (68.6). Ranking #2 in the NFL in total rushing attempts, averaging nearly 20 rushing attempt per game (19.88), and top 20 in running back targets on the season, Carson is a bet on volume start even though TB is a daunting matchup on paper. DFS players should fade Carson as the 8th highest priced back from the main slate of games through Monday Night Football ($7,200). Rashaad Penny popped in his week 8 return, taking 8 carries for 55 yards and looks to keep his hamstring injury in the rear view mirror. Unfortunately, Penny failed to find the field for more than 30% of the Seahawks offensive snaps (18 snaps to Carsons 42). Penny’s snap share will need to increase closer to a 40-60 split before he can flirt with flex consideration. Carson does have a history of getting ‘nicked’ up, and all Carson owners should aggressively attempt to acquire their insurance policy before it’s too late. 

The golden nugget for this week is SEA WR DK Metcalf. DK ranks #5 in the league in red zone targets (11), tied Tyler Lockett for the lead in WR snaps for SEA in week 8 (91.8%), and is Rudy’s projected WR16 in PPR formats. DK is a viable flex option with high upside in this weeks #1 projected shootout. Tyler Lockett is a no-brain starter and is Rudy’s projected #3 receiver in PPR formats for week 10. After TE Will Dissly’s exited in week 6 (achilles), neither replacement Jacob Hollister nor Luke Wilson can be trusted in lineups- even at a position as shallow as tight end. WR David Moore came out of nowhere in week 8 as the 3rd receiving option for Wilson, and might be the start of a new trend for the WR3 spot in Seattle. Jaron Brown failed to record a target in week 8 and recorded an offensive snap share of 27.9 to Moore’s 49.2. Moore’s spike in usage comes as a surprise, Jaron Brown has recorded the 3rd most snaps, targets and red zone targets in Seattle on the season. Neither can be trusted in season long leagues, but are blindfolded DFS dart throws in a game where Seattle is projected to score 4 touchdowns. Rudy gives Jaron a 28% chance to find pay dirt, compared to Moore’s 19%, but this more a reflection of Jaron usage earlier in the season and does not predict if SEA has decided to change up the WR3 in this offense. Moore might be the uber-contrarian DFS play. 

Any defensive unit facing Jameis Winston is a viable streaming option on any given week. Seattle’s 12th man is a serious factor for opposing teams communication, Jameis leads the league in interceptions and the Tampa O-line has surrendered the 3rd most sacks on the season. Seattle D/ST will be a popular play this weekend at home. 

Let me know in the comments if you have a specific game next week that you would like me to preview. As always, leaves your lineup questions below or you can @ me on twitter. Good luck in week 9!