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Football is back, folks! After the long offseason and the fury of draft season, all the preseason preparation is done. Now it’s time to work through weekly lineup decisions and institute your in-season management strategy.
Today, we will talk about a topic that should be part of the weekly decision-making process, albeit a smaller part, but one that probably rarely enters your mind. No, I’m not talking about that strange breed of player who makes a living with their foot. @Bobby_Lamarco loves Kickers, so I defer to his knowledge for all things paw-related. I’m talking about a whole other species of animals – the Zebras.
Why am I dedicating an article to NFL officials, you ask? While the spotlight typically shines on the performance of star players and tendencies of those masterful coaches roaming the sidelines, these supervisors of the game still play a pivotal, yet often overlooked, role in the fantasy football universe. Yes, believe it or not, those stripped purveyors of the yellow cloth have more impact on the fantasy game than you may think.
Take a look at the Referees/Crews for the upcoming season and their “performance” in 2022.
Table Note: Those columns with a “-” indicates penalties called at a rate < 0.50 per game.
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A few quick takeaways from the 2022 data:
- Quarterbacks need to be extra aware of the line of scrimmage when Brad Rogers’ crew is on the field.
- Offensive/Defensive Holding tends to be the most called penalties across all crews, but some crews (e.g., Adrian Hill) tend to be more aggressive.
- If you’re a Defensive Lineman and Tra Blake’s crew is officiating your game, you are much more likely to be called for Roughing the Passer or a Neutral Zone Infraction.
- False Starts are flagged 2x as much by Brad Allen’s crew than by Brad Roger’s crew.
As we shift into the current season, it’ll be interesting to trend how these Referee/Crews call the games and quantify their impact on our fantasy teams. While we wait for the new data to come in, we’ll take a higher-level look at a few of the Week 1 assignments and see what it may mean for our fantasy players.
Panthers @ Falcons: Brad Rogers and crew draw this tilt. Rogers’ crew led all officiating crews in calling Illegal Downfield Passes and the only crew averaging an Offensive Pass Interference call > 0.50. Averaging only four rushes per game last year, Desmond Ridder is not known as a “running QB,” but Bryce Young is expected to use his legs a little more. It’s conceivable to think this rookie QB adjusting to the speed of the NFL, or his WRs or TE fighting for a hurried pass draws the ire of this particular crew and suppresses our fantasy points.
49ers @ Steelers: Alex Kemp’s crew gets the dubious honor of averaging the most penalties in 2022, averaging almost 15 per game. The 49ers and Steelers were mid-pack across the NFL, with only 5 per game each. Something is going to give! If we make a prediction based on history, the flag-throwers appear to win this one. Kemp’s crew has officiated three 49er games throughout his six seasons as a Referee, totaling over 40 penalties (both for and against) – by far the most of any other team his crew has worked. In what may be a defensive battle, how many of these penalties will be drive-killers?
Packers @ Bears: The crew averaging the least penalties in 2022, Craig Wrolstad’s crew, will spend the weekend in the Windy City. Unless it’s Holding, Pass Interference or False Starts, players tend to get away with any other infraction at a much higher clip. That’s generally good news for our fantasy playmakers…if only there were a wealth of playmakers on these two teams. But I digress!
Cardinals @ Commanders: The most penalized team last season, the Arizona Cardinals, drew the one new Referee/Crew this season. Alan Eck graduates from being an Umpire on John Hussey’s crew to Referee of his own crew in 2023. Like Referees, Umpires line up primarily in the offensive backfield, and their primary purpose is to watch for False Starts and Holding. It so happens that teams drawing John Hussey’s crew last season were the least penalized in these two areas. Perhaps that’s good news for these two Offensive Lines, each learning to play with new QBs.
Buccaneers @ Vikings: Special Teams, beware, Scott Novak’s crew is coming to town. Novak’s crew was the only one registering above our threshold of 0.50 penalties per game for Illegal Blocks Above the Waist. These penalties generally occur during Special Team plays and have been known to reverse big field position swings or even wipe out TD returns. Shorter fields generally mean more points for our fantasy players. Many experts feel the Buccaneers are facing a tough day in Minnesota regardless, but one of these penalties might turn out to be the knife in the coffin.
We’ll see if these trends carry over from 2022 or if new trends appear over the next few weeks. At any rate, this was a fun look at The Zebras. If nothing else, we have analytical evidence confirming not all NFL Referees/Crews are built the same. I realize analyzing how the Officials call games may never become “a thing” that directly converts to fantasy football success. However, I subscribe to the notion that if I’m looking for an edge to exploit against my opponents, having a little extra knowledge in my pocket than they do usually works out well for me.
As always, thank you for joining me on this fun ride into the nuances of the NFL and exploring how it translates to our fantasy game.
Speaking of knowledge, don’t forget to subscribe and tune into the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show on Sunday mornings. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions as you prepare for the start of your Championship season. Don’t miss it.
All season long, look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends.
