As I write this, we’ll have the first game of the 2025 NFL season in about six hours.
Here, I’ll look at each game on the slate and point out things I’m looking for.
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Dallas at Philadelphia
How George Pickens looks in silver and blue
Under Mike McCarthy, Dallas was not afraid to move players around the formation. Brian Schottenheimer was McCarthy’s offensive coordinator. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. Dak Prescott may not be able to get comfortable.
How good (or bad) is the Dallas running game, and who gets the carries
Javonte Williams is the presumptive starter. I want to see how Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue mix in. Both Williams and Sanders have shown themselves to be capable pass catchers; Dallas tied for 19th in RB targets in 2024 with 86; Williams had 70 targets alone. Can this unit support the team?
The 2025 Eagles
The defending Super Bowl champs have a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Patullo, but most of the changes to player personnel are depth. Can this squad put together back-to-back championships?
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (in Brazil)
How does the Chiefs’ offensive line look?
Kansas City’s offensive line was bullied by the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. The offensive line has a new left side protecting Patrick Mahomes’ blind side. No quarterback is comfortable under pressure, although Mahomes handles it better than most.
How good is Omarion Hampton?
The 2025 22nd overall pick is likely to get a bigger share of the work in Week 1 than he might have with Najee Harris returning from an eye injury. I expect Harris will be eased in after having little work in the preseason. Greg Roman has said this will be a rotation. We’ll see.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
How will the Buccaneers distribute the ball?
Tampa Bay has a few new faces on offense, not the least of whom is offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Grizzard was the pass game coordinator under Liam Coen, so he’s not new to the organization. Baker Mayfield may not have standout left tackle Tristan Wurfs or tight end Cade Otton; wide receivers Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are set to miss several weeks. The 2025 19th overall pick, Emeka Egbuka, will need to be ready, and RB2 Rachaad White may be leaned on more than expected.
Have the Falcons improved enough on defense?
The Falcons were 23rd in points per game allowed, 30th in pressure rate, and 31st in sacks. This was noticeable on Draft Day as they spent their two first-round picks on pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce. They also added Leonard Floyd in free agency.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
What the Bengals’ defense looks like
This unit may continue to be fantasy gold as it will force the Bengals to score a ton of points on offense. They’re ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL for 2025 for both the front seven and the secondary. They retained Trey Hendrickson and added Shemar Stewart and Demetrius Knight Jr. in the draft, and have a new defensive coordinator, Al Golden.
What the Browns are doing
The Browns may well have a defense strong enough to keep the team in some games, but the offensive units are all ranked 22nd (offensive line) or lower by Sharp Football. The line was once a strength, but four of the projected starters are over 30. I love QB Joe Flacco for fantasy, but not for the real thing. The 2025 36th overall pick, RB Quinshon Judkins, is unsigned. WR Jerry Jeudy and TEs David Njoku and Harold Fannin may be relative bright spots.
Miami at Indianapolis
The Dolphins’ rushing attack
I confess: I’m a DeVon Achane Stan. But he’s not making it easy. He’s been battling a calf injury but is set to suit up Sunday. Jaylen Wright is already doubtful. Ollie Gordon is a rookie. The Colts’ front seven appears to be league average, and the Dolphins like to run: we’ll see if Miami has enough warm bodies to do it.
The Colts’ passing attack
I confess again: I see only small differences in the games of Colts’ QBs Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. I do agree with the Colts’ decision to go with Jones: Richardson is a wonderful athlete who may never be ready for the NFL, but he’s still only 23. I don’t know that either can adequately support Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Tyler Warren, but at least Jones has better protection than he had in New York. The Dolphins’ secondary lost pieces in the offseason.
Las Vegas at New England
The New World from the Raiders’ POV
New quarterback. New coaches. A first-round running back. A returning favorite. Several new defensive pieces. I think if nothing else, the Raiders get the “dead cat bounce” of Pete Carroll’s enthusiasm. And Carroll made his bones as a defensive coach in college: the secondary will need a lot of coaching up. I like the Raiders to compete hard in 2025: I want to see it on a cross-country trip for an early game in Week 1.
The New World from the Patriots’ POV
New coaches. A second-round running back and a first-round tackle. A solid if declining WR1. Mike Vrabel returns to the organization as the head coach. The Patriots are in good shape on defense, more so in the secondary. There are some exciting pieces on offense: QB Drake Maye is in his first full season as the starter, new RB TreVeyon Henderson adds explosiveness, and WR Stefon Diggs hopes to give the younger WRs room to grow.
Arizona at New Orleans
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Progression
Marvin Harrison Jr. turned out to be overpriced in our sport last year. Some of the NCAA experts I follow cautioned against overinvesting in 2024. The Cardinals did him few favors in his rookie year: they asked him to win downfield and out wide most of the time. Kyler Murray is talented but has struggled throwing downfield. Harrison has bulked up for this season. Giving him some work closer to the line of scrimmage might help as well.
The Return of the Saints?
This is an easy team to fade in 2025, but I think that may be oversimplifying: they were decimated by injuries to the passing attack last year. Derek Carr missed eight games, Rashid Shaheed missed eleven, Chris Olave missed eight, and Taysom Hill missed nine. Carr retired, and there’s no word on when (or if) Hill will return, but Olave and Shaheed are back. Spencer Rattler is the new starter at QB. Let’s see how he looks with two of their better WRs on the field.
Pittsburgh at New York Jets
“The Double-Quarterback-Revenge Game”
Given that this is the lowest over-under line in Week 1 at 38.5 points, this may be just my cute turn of a phrase. Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields did, indirectly, trade uniforms in the offseason. Given that the two defenses are each among the top in the NFL, the 38.5 line may not be low enough.
DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson
Outside of the number one WRs on both teams, the other receivers are wild cards: competent if unspectacular (Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard for the Jets) or young and unknown (Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson for the Steelers). Both secondaries are in the top half of the NFL, and both front sevens are top-10. I’m looking forward to seeing how each team utilizes their passing game weapons in 2025.
New York Giants at Washington
Russell Wilson
Wilson is the best quarterback the Giants have had since Eli Manning retired. Swirl that around your mouth. See how it tastes. He’s still good in a clean pocket. I’m just afraid he won’t get many of those, and he tends to hang onto the ball too much, but he’ll likely make better decisions than Daniel Jones did. I want to see Malik Nabers with him. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton as well. Jaxson Dart will arrive soon: I’d like him to have better protection when he does.
The Commanders’ rushing attack
Who will be “the guy?” Will anyone? I was surprised when the decision was made to trade Brian Robinson. I’m interested to see who got the biggest vote of confidence. I’m not so sure it won’t be Austin Ekeler.
Carolina at Jacksonville
It’s our 30th birthday!
The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars each played their first NFL regular-season game on September 3, 1995. Make a wish!
Liam Coen
It may seem like years, but it’s only been a little over seven months since Coen turned down the Jaguars’ head coaching offer to stay with the Buccaneers as offensive coordinator. Until the Jaguars fired general manager Trent Baalke, and Coen accepted the Jaguars’ second (presumptively) offer to be the HC. Then Coen wanted to talk to other members of the Bucs’ coaching staff: the Bucs said “no.” Sadly, the Bucs and Jags will not meet in 2025.
Tennessee at Denver
The Cam Ward Era begins
AKA, “the quarterback that got away from the Giants.” The 2025 quarterback class was not well-regarded, but Ward has been raising his stock all year, and that did not end after he was drafted number one overall in April. I don’t think the Titans pull a turnaround on the level of the 2024 Commanders: the offensive line is all right, the RBs are the same, but the WR room may be the weakest in the NFL, even with Calvin Ridley.
The Broncos added pieces
In the offensive backfield, Denver parted ways with Javonte Williams and Audric Estime, then drafted R.J. Harvey in the 2nd round and signed J.K. Dobbins for 2025. Presumably, Dobbins will start with Harvey getting a share of the carries. How large that is depends on Harvey’s readiness. They also drafted WR Pat Bryant in the 3rd round, although I don’t see him having an impact early. A lot may depend on free-agent signee Evan Engram at tight end. Engram is potentially their best weapon at the position since Julius Thomas.
San Francisco at Seattle
Christian McCaffrey
Arguably the best offensive weapon in the league as recently as 2023, CMC is now 29. And he popped up on the injury report today. With Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk still rehabbing, McCaffrey is the key to their attack, even if he winds up only 75% of what he was two years ago. He commands the field. George Kittle may be the best TE in the NFL, but their other receivers have growing to do.
Sam Darnold
Darnold is joining a new team for the third straight year. He joins a team that will, for the fourth year in a row, be one of the lowest spending teams on its offensive line. The weapons are there, but Darnold had more time to throw in Minnesota than he’ll get in Seattle. His play style will need to change, or Seattle may find out that they should have appreciated Geno Smith more.
Detroit at Green Bay
The efficiency of the Lions’ offense
This is one area where we’ll see how much the Lions will miss former OC Ben Johnson. New OC John Morton has ties to HC Dan Campbell and the team. I don’t think execution will be an issue: the key offensive pieces are the same. What will be hard to replace will be Johnson’s creativity.
Can the Packers catch the football?
It’s easy to say Jordan Love took a step back in 2024. He hurt his knee at the end of the Packers’ first game, and I’m not sure he was ever right. The Packers also ran the ball at a much higher rate when they signed Josh Jacobs. Love improved in yards per attempt and completion rate. The receiver error metric measures drops, when the receiver loses control of the ball at the ground, catches negated by the receiver not getting two feet in bounds, and catches not made when the receiver falls or cuts off the route. The Packers had a receiver error rate of 8%; the NFL team average was 5.3%. (I owe Sharp Football for the receiver error metrics.)
Houston at Los Angeles Rams
Why doesn’t C.J Stroud get more love?
One of the 2025 fantasy football facts that blows my mind is the relative expectations between WR Nico Collins and Stroud. Collins is universally expected to be a top-8 (or higher) WR. Stroud nearly goes undrafted outside of leagues where we can start two QBs. I’m sure dozens of people would be happy to explain this to me. Convincing me might take some doing.
How badly hurt is Matthew Stafford?
On the other side, one question that has been answered to my satisfaction is, “How tough is Matthew Stafford?” The answer is, “Very.” Vertebrae ailments are nothing to sneeze at, however. I’m convinced Stafford would go on the field in a wheelchair if they let him. They will not. We will never love Stafford as much as he deserves. My fingers are crossed.
Baltimore at Buffalo
Can DeAndre Hopkins still be a factor?
One of my favorite acquisitions of the offseason, and a guy I was getting for free in best ball drafts all summer. Lamar Jackson is saying nice things with “Hopkins,” “throw,” and “end zone” in the same sentence. Unlike when he landed in Kansas City, he has a preseason to work with his new team. Now, if he can still give us some boom weeks, profit gained. I’m not convinced he can be an asset in redraft. He’s still a joy to watch IRL.
The quest begins
The Bills went to four straight Super Bowls beginning in the 1990 NFL season. They have not been back since. One might think, “Josh Allen isn’t as good in the postseason as Patrick Mahomes.” He’s actually been better. Sean McDermott is a defensive coach, but that’s the unit that has let the Bills down in the postseason. This year, the Bills signed free agents Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi to shore up the front seven and brought back CB Tre’Davious White. In the draft, they had seven picks before pick 178; six were used on defense, three on CBs. The secondary is the weakest unit on the team. It would be nice if the defense could help carry Josh Allen over the hump.
Minnesota at Chicago
J.J. McCarthy arrives
Better late than never. McCarthy steps onto a team that will depend on his acclimation to the NFL. The Vikings have an O-line that is ranked 5th by Sharp and 7th by PFF. The defense is near the top of the league. The receivers will miss Jordan Addison for the first three games, but have Justin Jefferson and a healthier T.J. Hockenson. The running backs are league-average but not a liability. He also has a head coach who worked wonders on the fly with Sam Darnold.
The Bears’ offense
To say expectations are high in Chicago is an understatement. I said the Lions may miss new Bears HC Ben Johnson’s creativity. I can’t wait to see how the Bears benefit. It will take time and repetition, and the pieces are young. This team may not fully arrive for a year or two, but this team should be entertaining at least. The running backs are the main question mark for me.
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