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I’ve drafted Tom Brady in plenty of drafts this season, thumbing my nose at the sexy Konami code options. He threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns last season, and that was with the offense not truly humming until after the Week 13 bye. The weapons are there with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and OJ Howard. There’s a familiarity entering Year 2 of the Brady era and the offense has had a full offseason to get more comfortable. I am expecting big things but I never thought about the season being one of epic, historic proportions until recently. I’ve heard more than a few people talking about it so I wanted to dig in to see if it’s something that could happen.Â
What more does Brady have to accomplish? He has……
He has countless records and MVP awards. He went for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns back in 2007. He’s always going to be gunning for another chip but could he have his sights on the 2013 Peyton Manning season that produced 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns?Â
Let’s break down that crazy season first.
Manning attempted 659 passes and completed 68.3 percent of them. The yards-per-attempt was 8.3 and he averaged 342.3 yards per game. The touchdown rate was 8.3% and he threw 3.4 touchdowns per game.Â
There have been 17 quarterbacks to attempt at least 650 passes in a season, with Matthew Stafford throwing a ridiculous 727 times in 2012. Brady has attempted 610 and 613 passes in the last two seasons. With an extra game on the docket, he could get close to the 650 number.
There have been 41 other quarterbacks to finish a season with at least 8 yards-per-attempt. Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Dan Marino were the only ones to post a number above 9. Brady has a career 7.5 mark but he’s gone over 8 three times in his career – 2016 (8.2), 2011 (8.6), and during the FU 2007 season, he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt.
There has been only one other quarterback who has averaged at least 340 yards per game – Drew Brees in 2011. Brady has averaged over 300 yards per game only twice in his career – 2012 (301.7) and 2007 (300.4).
For quarterbacks who have attempted at least 500 passes in a season, there have only been five others who have posted a touchdown rate of at least 8% – Aaron Rodgers twice (9.1 and 9), Brady (8.7), Patrick Mahomes (8.6), and Dan Marino (8.5).
The 3.4 touchdowns-per-game is just a ridiculous number. There’s a reason why it’s the record. There have been only four other quarterbacks to average at least 3 per game in 16 games played – Brady, Mahomes, Marino, and Rodgers.Â
In order for Brady to even sniff Manning’s record, he and Arians are really going to have to make a concerted effort to break the record. During the Brady FU season, he and Belichick had the pedal to the metal every game all season. If they were up 43-0, it didn’t matter. They were hucking and chucking to their hearts’ content.Â
Looking back at Arian’s history as both an offensive coordinator and head coach, he’s had four seasons with a yards-per-attempt over 8 – 2019 (8.2), 2015 (8.7), 2010 (8.2), and 2009 (8.6). He’s had five seasons with at least 30 touchdowns thrown and three seasons with over 4,500 passing yards. So he’s willing to huck and chuck but this Bucs team has a really good defense and Brady attempted fewer than 40 passes eight times last season, with three of those below 30. In Manning’s record-setting season, he had one game with under 30 pass attempts and six total under 40. He had two games with over 40 passing attempts.Â
In order for a historic season to happen, the stars obviously have to align with health being at the forefront. Motivation to pursue history has to be there as well because, without it, there’s a slim to zero chance Manning’s record falls. The situation is ripe, though. Chasing history could just be the spark to eradicate complacency after winning the Super Bowl last season. In addition, Brady doesn’t have many more years left so he could just push all-in this year. Even with all that and the extra game, it will be a difficult endeavor but it’s not completely outside of the range of outcomes.Â
I hope chasing history is on the docket because I enjoy the pursuit whether it is fulfilled or not.Â
