Every year we get burned by fantasy football players we expect to produce for us at a high level. Whether it be from injury, COVID list inactives, suspensions or simply underperforming and losing playing time, it’s important we review each season from a bird’s eye view in addition to our granular approach. Some players just flat-out bust. Others don’t return our expectations but have given us seasons’ worth of production we can revert back to in hopes of last year’s underwhelming performances being an outlier.
Listed in this article are my Top 3 tight ends I’m willing to take a chance on again in 2022 even after a disappointing 2021. You might consider these players “bounce back” candidates.
Kyle Pitts (ATL): The number four overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft did everything the Falcons could have wished for as a rookie, except score touchdowns. Somehow, Pitts only scored one single touchdown on 110 targets. Those 110 targets were 5th among tight ends. Pitts also ran the 4th most routes, had the 2nd most air yards and air yard share, 3rd most receiving yards and the most yards per reception at 15.1 — among tight ends — as a rookie. Having Marcus Mariota throwing him passes instead of Matt Ryan might seem like a downgrade (and statistically it is), but Mariota (while with the Titans) helped an aging Delanie Walker to four consecutive 100+ target, 800+ receiving yards and 20 total touchdowns from 2014-2017. Walker finished TE7, TE3, TE6 and TE6 in fantasy points per game. Those Titans and these Falcons have similar game planning and Arthur Smith. Smith was the Tight Ends Coach in TEN. He’s now the Head Coach in ATL. Continuity is key in the NFL. Smith and Mariota already have rapport and tight ends have shown through under Smith. Even Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser did work in TEN. Pitts might already be the most athletic tight end in the league. If he scored four more touchdowns for a total of five, Pitts would have been the TE3 behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Pitts is the consensus TE3 in ADP right now, so it’s not like drafters are sleeping on him. However, he’s going in Round 3 and could be the TE1 overall by season’s end. I’ll get a stud RB/WR combo in Round 1 and 2 and skip Kelce and Andrews for Pitts. Outside of injury (duh), there’s no downside to Pitts and league-winning upside. He could be the new “Kelce” for years to come… starting in 2022. Don’t miss out.
T.J. Hockenson (DET): If you do miss out on Pitts, consider Hockenson in Round 6. He missed five games last season and still finished as a borderline TE1 at TE13 overall. T.J. was TE8 in fantasy points per game in 2021 and TE6 in FPPG in 2020. Jared Goff targets the middle of the field as much as any quarterback in the league and Hockenson has seen at least 6.3 targets per game over the last two seasons. That’s good for 8th most in 2020 and 5th most in 2021 among tight ends. In only 12 games he had 84 targets. Paced over 17 games, Hockenson may have earned 119 targets which would have landed him 3rd among tight ends behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. D’Andre Swift will see more work in the passing game and Amon-Ra St. Brown will have a roll with Jameson Williams on the outside, but Hockenson is hitting year four and has the most red zone presence on the Lions. If not for injury, he would have lived up to the Top-5 hype from last season. I’m ordering another pitcher of his Kool-Aid this season.
Cole Kmet (CHI): Pop Quiz. Name another pass-catching “weapon” on the Bears other than Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. I know, I can’t either. Kmet had an impressive 93 targets last season which was the 8th most among tight ends — one behind George Kittle who had 94. Kmet was also extremely unlucky and did not catch a touchdown. Fantasy legend and possible NFL Hall of Famer Jimmy Graham is no longer on the roster. Mooney will control the outside and Justin Fields has a full off-season as the starter heading into 2022. The Bears might be a tough watch, but Kmet could be a bright spot. He was 11th in target share and air yard share and 12th in receiving yards among tight ends. I’m not reaching for Kmet or passing on quality RB/WR options but in the late 10th Round…? Why not scoop your tight end who has touchdown regression in his favor, a much-improved quarterback, no Graham and the easiest strength of schedule among tight ends according to Fantasy Pros. If you miss on the big dawgs. Grab yourself a Bear.
Honorable mention:
Gerald Everett (LAC): Follow me here… last season the Seahawks had the least amount of pass attempts per game at just 29. The Chargers had the 3rd most with 39. Gerald Everett (then on the Seahawks) finished the season with 8.2 PPRFPPG. Jared Cook (then with the Chargers) finished with 8.0. Everett had a full target less per game and finished with a better per game average (in one less game). Although Cook was no slouch in his hay-day, his 34-year-old athleticism is nothing close to what Everett now offers at just 28. Going from the lowest passing attack to arguably the heaviest speaks loud enough, but Everett showed flashes with the Rams and Jared Goff as well before landing in Seattle. When Russell Wilson came back from injury in Weeks 10-16, Everett was TE7 in PPR. A full season of Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense gives Everett legit Top 12 upside and I wouldn’t be surprised if he cracks the Top 6 among fantasy tight ends. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Los Angeles, but the Chargers have thrown for the third most pass attempts over the last three seasons. There’s plenty to go around and I want pieces of this offense. Everett is by far the cheapest at TE20 (middle Round 13 ADP). You’re drafting Austin Ekeler (Round 1 ADP), Keenan Allen (Round 3 ADP) and Mike Williams (Round 6 ADP) needing them to return value to break even. Everett could be a league winner. Remember George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller breakouts? They were all drafted after Round 10 in those respective seasons. Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas weren’t even drafted in 2020 when they finished TE3 and TE4 respectively. If you wait late on tight end, Everett is your target and probably “free”.
