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Every year we get burned by fantasy football players we expect to produce for us at a high level. Whether it be from injury, COVID list inactives, suspensions or simply underperforming and losing playing time, it’s important we review each season from a bird’s eye view in addition to our granular approach. Some players just flat-out bust. Others don’t return our expectations but have given us seasons’ worth of production we can revert back to in hopes of last year’s underwhelming performances being an outlier.
Listed in this article are my Top 5 wide receivers I’m willing to take a chance on again in 2022 even after a disappointing 2021. You might consider these players “bounce back” candidates.
Courtland Sutton (DEN): Sutton is on the verge of being a “My Guy” this season. The talent is there. I don’t think anyone would dispute that, but we haven’t seen it all come together yet over a full season for Sutton. He tore his ACL in Week 1 of 2020. Last year he finished WR42 in PPR and only had two touchdowns on 98 targets, but more importantly, he played all 17 games after the injury. Now two years removed from the torn ACL he gets Russell Wilson to replace the pathetic combo of Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater (no disrespect) and Drew Lock. Jerry Jeudy truthers will knock Sutton on the simple case that Jeudy is on the team as well. They generally neglect to mention that Jeudy was a perfect fit for Bridgewater and Lock who couldn’t throw deep effectively dismissing the fact that Sutton matches Wilson’s deep ball accuracy perfectly. Even in a poor season last year, Sutton tallied 1,756 air yards which was 7th in the NFL coincidentally between Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Wilson was 6th in the NFL in deep ball accuracy last season. Jeudy might see more targets but Sutton will see more air yards, red zone looks and should outpace Jeudy significantly in fantasy points. I’m all in on Sutton.
Marquise Brown (ARI): I’m not a huge Hollywood Brown fan in general, but with new teammate, DeAndre Hopkins set to miss the first six games of the season due to a PED suspension, it’s hard not to notice the potential for Brown to start the year. Marquise came over from Baltimore where he shined in spurts but didn’t really have a chance to make it consistent in a run-heavy offense that threw the ball the least in the NFL annually. Now in Arizona (and reunited with his college quarterback), Brown has a chance to cement a WR1 role for the Cardinals… over the first six games at least. Hollywood set career-highs last season in targets, receptions and receiving yards in Baltimore. He was also 8th in the NFL in deep targets. Kyler Murray was 3rd in the NFL in deep ball accuracy in 2021. Brown is being drafted as WR21, but has Top 12 upside for the first six weeks. If Hopkins gets a slow start once back, Brown could hold down the top spot in ARI and see a significant uptick in targets overall increasing his chances to outpace his ADP.
Brandin Cooks (HOU): Cooks is annually under-drafted and routinely outperforms his ADP. Since 2015, Cooks has been WR20 or better each season but one (injury) and has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards each season but one (injury). He was 10th in fantasy points per game over the final four weeks last season with rookie Davis Mills at quarterback. The Texans drafted John Metchie III out of Alabama, but he was recently diagnosed with leukemia and will miss the 2022 season. This should keep Cooks as the bonafide weapon in this offense with limited options. His ADP of WR23 might once again be a bargain on draft day. I like Mills and so does Cooks. The two teamed up for a Top 5 target rate per route run last season. That’s a great underrated stack in Best Ball and cheap.
Michael Thomas (NO): This comes down to health. Thomas was far and away the WR1 in 2019 before two seasons of injury. Before 2020 sidelined him for nine games then all of 2021, Thomas had bettered each season since a rookie in 2016. He was WR11, WR5, WR3 and WR1 – with Drew Brees of course. He still saw a career-best 2.86 yards per route run and 33% target share in the four games he returned in 2020. People knock the lack of touchdowns, but he’s had exactly nine touchdowns in every season except one when he scored five in 2017. Jameis Winston isn’t Drew Brees, but he tends to pepper WRs and Thomas is one to pepper. Veteran Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave will make a case for their own targets, but if Thomas is right, he’s the clear WR1 in New Orleans. WR32 in the 6th Round of fantasy drafts could be the steal of the season at any position.
Adam Thielen (MIN): The Vikings are clearly Justin Jefferson’s team at this point, but if we lower expectations for Thielen I think he could have some solid value as a WR3 on your fantasy roster. He’s been Top 24 in fantasy points per game and red zone targets in four of the last five seasons. It felt like he disappeared last season and he still finished WR26 with 10 touchdowns in just 13 games. He won’t be much of an upside play, but he should see only single coverage with Jefferson and Dalvin Cook getting all the attention. If that’s the case, Theilen could again still see double-digit touchdowns and 700+ yards on 90+ targets. Again, don’t think of him as a high-end WR2 with weekly WR1 upside anymore. He’s not. However, he should be a solid WR3 with WR2 weekly upside who still has great chemistry with Kirk Cousins and excellent red zone efficiency. Thielen is a great WR3/WR4/Flex for your roster.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Woods (TEN): Woods has been a great middle-round WR to rely on as your WR2 on fantasy rosters for years, but last year he got hurt and was then traded to Tennessee. Woods goes from the Rams who had the 14th most pass play % in the NFL over the last three seasons at 63% to the Titans who had the second fewest at just 44%. We all know the Titans’ offense runs through Derrick Henry, but Woods finds himself in a unique situation where he joins a new team and he can slot right into the WR1 role on the team. AJ Brown was traded to Philadelphia during the NFL Draft and rookie Treylon Burks simply hasn’t impressed yet during minicamp. Woods will be 30 this season which is usually the beginning of the end for wide receivers, but we’ve seen a number of aging wideouts extend their career from the slot – see Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, the above-mentioned Adam Thielen and Jarvis Landry. Although Woods was WR17 at the time of his injury last year, he was actually on pace for 90/1,112/10 on 138 targets over a 16-game pace. All of those numbers would have bettered his 2020 season when he finished WR12 in PPR. Assuming he recovers from his torn ACL, Woods should smash his current WR48 ADP. It’s hard to beat his potential as your WR4 or WR5. Woods will be a late-round grab for me all summer.
