(EDIT: Here are the most up to date rankings –>  Auction Values, Tiers and Cheat Sheet for PPR – http://su.pr/A17UuB NonPPR – http://su.pr/9DEgIM)

If you look back in time to the Top 30 you will see the guys who are worth drafting before these guys. It’s a rankings thing. There will be people less worth drafting in the future. It all evens out. Don’t feel too bad for these dudes.

31. Philip Rivers: Last season was set up as a bad movie for Rivers. He started the season without his best receiver, but thankfully had Antonio Gates setting the world ablaze, but then down goes Gates! So his two best receivers are just gone and still he ends up as the 5th best fantasy QB! Really, with Gates and VJax back this could be a special year for Rivers. Projection: 75/1 — 4500/33/12

32. Miles Austin: Austin and Romo connected early and often last season and then Romo went down and took Austin with him. Dez Bryant didn’t get to line up across from Austin while Romo was at the helm, but I can only see Dez’s presence helping Austin. Bryant is a constant threat to score and teams must keep an eye on him. Austin will get more targets and more receptions than Bryant and be the go to guy for most games. He’ll be solid. Projection: 1175/7

33. Jermichael Finley: Is he the safest tight end to draft first out of all the TEs? No Mr. Smarty Pants! He is not. After a knee injury on the first drive of week 5 of last season I can see why you might be worried about him coming back, but what about Gates and Clark Mr. Intelligent Trousers?  They were injured as well and Finley has had longer to heal. I am worried about gates staying healthy more than Finley and I believe Finley can be even better than Gates. At 6’5″ 250 he out speeds and out lanks the 6’4″ 260 Antonio Gates. He is a specimen and the next great TE. Get on board. Projection: 1150/9

34. Tom Brady: Last season really was one for the ages. He was only the third ranked fantasy QB, but 36 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions are mind boggling numbers and I’ve never even played boggle! His 50 TD year won’t be surpassed, but put those two together and you have a pair of seasons that will go down in history. How in the hell can you only throw 4 interceptions again? It can’t happen. He’ll slip a little and with Belichick you just can’t be sure what he’ll do to hurt Brady’s fantasy value. You know he isn’t going to get the rushing TDs like Vick and Rodgers and he doesn’t quite have the weapons of Manning, but you also can’t let him slip too far. He’ll win you some fake games. Projection: 50/1 — 4350/32/7

35. Ahmad Bradshaw: Bradshaw had his breakout season last year with over 300 touches, 1500 yards and 8 TDs and that was with Brandon Jacobs getting nearly 150 carries and 9 touchdowns! We will see a similar break down this season and there is no reason to think we won’t see similar numbers. Projection: 1150/7 — 300/1

36. Shonn Greene: Greene is hard to read. He was poised to breakout last season after an awesome playoff stretch the season before, but ended up doing little to nothing last year and taking a back seat to the ancient Tomlinson. This season Rex Ryan is giving plenty of lip-service to the fact that Greene will be their workhorse and you just can’t discount that. Joe McKnight, L.T. and Bilal Powell are all there to get work if Greene can’t get it done again this season, but opportunity often trumps everything else and the Jets are a tough defensive team that will run the ball more than not. You have to give Greene another fantasy shot. Projection: 1300/9 — 100/1

37. Ryan Mathews: The news out of training camp started off horribly with a injured toe, and continues to be crappy. This does of course reinforce the worries about his health. The problem or not problem is that his upside is great. He’s obviously a special talent and on such a high scoring team I’m ready to take a risk on him, but it’s still a risk and if he can’t practice I’ll be tossing him down this page to land on your keyboard all mangled and stuff. Projection: 1150/8 — 250/1

38. LeGarrette Blount: Blount is a work horse and with the loss of Caddy Williams and the Bucs deciding not to bring in another running back, he will remain a work horse. He didn’t have double digit carries until week seven and still had a thousand yards rushing. If you project him out to a full season’s work load he would have had 2 billion yards rushing. Or somewhere close. Thankfully he didn’t get an insane workload for the season and no playoff work so he should be fresh for this season and on a team on the rise should have some TD opportunities. Projection: 1200/10 — 50/0

39. Antonio Gates: If Gates didn’t have foot issues he’d be my clear #1 TE this season. He was on pace to eclipse every TE record in the known and probably unknown universe. I just don’t see him not having some health issues this season, but he’s too good not to take the risk. Projection: 1100/8

40. Tony Romo: Here starts a new QB tier, one I’d like to call, I sure hope Romo falls to me in the 5th round of every draft. For me Romo is actually in the tier above, but don’t tell anyone; that would spoil the surprise. Sadly there are a ton of Cowboy fans littering fantasy leagues out there that might grab him before you, but I’m happy to take him in the 4th round which is a little earlier than his ADP right now. Romo has put up elite numbers in the past, but has shown inconsistency and injury problems. With the addition of Bryant and the subtraction of any running back that can run it in from the one, I think he has the ability to be top 5 again this season. Here is a post I wrote during the off season detailing why I like him a little further. Projection: 100/1 — 4400/31/14

41. Stevie Johnson: Lil Stevie Johnson showed up big time last season finishing as the 10th best fantasy receiver with 82 receptions, 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns.  I see him getting similar numbers this season with a slight decrease in TDs because I’m conservative like that, but there is no reason to think he can’t continue to improve with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him again and Chan Gailey running the offense and if he does, he’ll be a steal in most drafts. Projection: 1100/8

42. Brandon Lloyd: I remember watching Brandon Lloyd make a one handed grab for the Niners in full stride once and thinking, this dude can play and then watching him just perennially suck ass.  Whatever the reason, he finally figured it out last season. Yes, Josh McDaniel’s offense helped, but watching him play, it was easy to see his ability and that his coach and QB could see it as well. Getting the confidence of your QB and coach is often half the battle. So now there is a new coach in town, but Kyle Orton managed to stick in Denver for another season. John Fox’s offense is more run oriented, but you don’t take the #1 fantasy receiver from last season and just stop targeting him. Yes, I have him pretty low, but I still feel good about drafting him in the third round when his ADP is in the 4th. Projection: 1100/8

43. Brandon Marshall: In his first season with the Dolphins he had 86 receptions for 1,014 yards. That’s not bad, that’s the 5th most receptions for a receiver last season and the 5th most targets. Is that something you want in a receiver? Yes, yes it is. But how about his 3 touchdowns? How do you feel about those? Yeah, me too. Davone Bess had a couple hundred less yards and still had 5 TDs. Marshall is bound to score more, and has the upside to score a lot more. Projection: 1100/7

44. Mike Williams: The rookie receiver was one of the few rookie receivers to ever be fantasy relevant as he caught 10 touchdown passes from Josh Freeman last season. Those 10 TDs only came on 65 receptions which is a bit abnormal as far as TD rates go, but he showed that he is a legit big play, red zone receiver and should continue that trend this season. Josh Freeman and Arrelious Benn should both continue to improve which will make things easier for that offense and Williams in turn. Projection: 1075/7

45. Dez Bryant: No other receiver outside of the studs has as much insane upside as Dez Bryant this season. Yes, he has Miles Austin and Jason Witten taking away looks, but with the lack of a running back that will get double digit TDs there are going to be a ton of touchdown opportunities to go around and Dex is going to be a TD monster with his ability to jump, high point the ball, out muscle and steel hand lock any moving thing. I want to own Dez this season and if I’m in a dynasty league I want to own him even more. Projection: 950/9

46. Santonio Holmes: The Jets have brought in Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason which together equals a 70 year old receiver. Yes, Mike Wallace is in his 70s, but really these two guys aren’t as good as Braylon Edwards which isn’t saying much and Holmes will be the go to guy every game. He’s a solid receiver and will put up solid numbers. Solid! Projection: 1075/7

47. Mark Ingram: Yeah I know, the last time you drafted a rookie running back early it was Ryan Mathews and he sucked. I hear ya. But this is a new day and a new team and a new player and well, it’s new. I am wary of rookies as well, but when you have an early down/goal line back on a high scoring offense, well, you have to take notice. The Saints have all kinds of complimentary backs, but they aren’t going to rotate every down and Sean Payton, for all the throwing his offense does, loves to run the ball. They had 21 rushing TDs in ’09 when they won the Super Bowl. He actually made Mike Bell relevant! They are going to get back to that this season and ride Ingram. Projection: 1100/9 — 100/1

48. DeAngelo Williams: DWill is a top 5 talent, but is injury prone and on a crappy team and has a top 10 talent running back on the same team. That kinda sucks. But it is what it is which means you can get Williams’ talent at a discounted price. That part doesn’t suck as much. Projection: 1050/6 — 200/1

49. Ryan Grant: Ryan Grant is an interesting case. He’s the starting early down/goal line back on a high powered offense, but is coming back from an injury and competing for touches with James Starks who looked very good in the playoffs last season. But Grant gives us faux footballers the chance to get a starting running back at a discounted rate. I’m not in love with his upside but if you can get him at value it’s worth it. Projection: 1075/7 — 150/1

50. Sidney Rice: Rice is one of my favorite receivers. His ability is through the roof, but sadly he was traded to the Seahawks and his upside is capped with Tarvaris Jackson as his QB. Thankfully, even though TJax has shown a great ability to suck, he does have a history with Rice and just last season in week 12 threw 2 TDs to him and one was just a jump ball because he knew Rice is one of the best at catching passes in traffic. He is too good to let fall far. Projection: 1100/6

  1. zutroy says:
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    so who would you rank higher – Dez Bryant or Mark Ingram – they are both listed as #45 :)

  2. DSimms says:
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    Hey doc, during mocks ive been consistently getting jahvid best at 5/6 turn but after leshoure’s injury he’s always gone by then. Do you think its too crazy to take him at the 3/4 turn?

  3. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @zutroy: Whoops! Thanks

    @DSimms: I’m ok with him there. He is riskier there and I’d want someone less risky paired with him.

  4. Plainview says:
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    Does Ray Rice’s value take a hit with the addition of Ricky?

  5. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Plainview: Not enough to move him down in the rankings. We knew he’d have someone in there and Ricky’s skills have diminished enough to not be a huge threat.

  6. PepeSilvia says:
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    great stuff as always, Doc. I don’t know about you, but I’m taking Blount over Mathews or Greene wherever I can get him. even your writeups had negatives for Mathews and Greene but I haven’t really heard anyone say anything negative about Blount coming into this year. I just hope his ranking on ESPN stays low until my draft so I can possibly steal him in the fourth or even fifth round.

  7. Doc:
    I have a keeper league where I can choose between Dez and Stevie Johnson. I lean toward Dez just based on upside. There is no round cost, we all begin with the 5th round effectively. 8 team 1 pt PPR with 1 QB, 2 RB and 2WR. I am also keeping Brees, Gore and Schaub, but I’m wondering about keeping two QBS. I could also keep Brandon Marshall, Colston, Vernon Davis. Or do I go Stevie and Dez with Brees and Gore. Too many riches in a small league.

  8. dedalus says:
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    Is Razzball’s football site slower than its baseball site or am I crazy? For some reason it seems to take twice as long to load. Maybe it’s time I upgrade my dial-up…

  9. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Ivar Anderson: I wouldn’t keep two Qubes. I’d go with Dez’s upside in a small league.

    @dedalus: Hmm, not sure. I’ve had some trouble recently, but it went away.

  10. @Doc: So go with Stevie and Dez then? I’m agonna have to search for RB gold in them thar hills.

  11. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Ivar Anderson: In PPR it’s close between him and BMarsh. I think I’d lean Marshall.

  12. herschel says:
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    @Doc: recently saw best go at round 2/pick 1 (13th overall) in a 12 team “experts” ppr mock draft. think that will be more the norm as we get closer to the start of the season or does that still seem a bit high?

  13. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @herschel: That won’t be the norm. That was Silva wasn’t it? He’s like a Honey Badger.

  14. herschel says:
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    @Doc: haha…yup. even if not at 2/1, what is a reasonable round to “reach” for him. is 3rd round too high? his adp seems closer to 4th or 5th….

  15. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @herschel: I’d say he’ll be going in the 3rd round. I’d love him in there in PPR. Non-PPR not as much, but would still take him.

  16. herschel says:
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    @Doc: i have the 4 pick in my ppr draft so hoping i can snag him at 3/4 (pick 28).

  17. DHill Dragons says:
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    I’m picking 4th in a 10-man 2 QB league. I’m thinking if the top 3 go as expected I’ll be choosing between Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. What are everyone’s thoughts on how these 3 rank? Who has the most upside this season?

    Thanks

  18. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @herschel: That’s reasonable

    @DHill Dragons: In PPR they are all very close. As far as pure talent I’m JC, Rice, McCoy. And when they are that close I go with talent.

  19. Joel says:
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    Doc:

    my league is very touchdown heavy: 5 pts for rushing TD, 1 pt for every 20 yds, NO PPR. In that scoring system, could you rank the following RBs: Mendy, Turner, Lesean, MJD.

    THANKS!!

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Joel: Mendy, Turner, McCoy, MJD

  21. Scott says:
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    Auction league. $200 budget. Would you trade a $3 Bradford who can be kept for two years for a $30 Shonne Greene who can be kept for one? Which side would have to add more if not?

    Thanks

  22. Tom the Niner says:
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    Doc, what do you think of my team? This is a 16-team league (non-ppr), so players went fast. Overall, I think my team is pretty solid. My one regret is drafting Jahvid Best over Shonne Green. I really wanted Blount, but he went the pick before

    Qb: Flacco
    RB: Charles
    RB: Best
    RB/WR: Beanie Wells
    WR: Calvin Johnson
    WR: Marshall
    WR: Mike Thomas
    TE: Dustin Keller
    DEF: Miami
    Kicker: Matt Bryant

    My bench players include: Earl Bennett, Jacoby Ford, Eddie Royal, Erick Decker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jason Snelling, and Brandon Jackson

  23. Mike says:
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    I am in a yahoo 14 team points league. 2 WR, 3 RB and 1WR/RB, DEF, K and 1QB. What round do I go after my QB and backup QB

  24. Mike says:
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    I pick my TE and K the last two picks

  25. matty massguy says:
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    M Wallace OR V Jax? Who has more upside in a 3 player keeper league? 1pt per 5 receptions, 1pt per 20yds? My 3 keepers-A Rogers, R Rice, R White! ALSO, I am debating only useing Balts running game all season so I can load up w WRs and a top 3 TE. What do u think about 1RB,4WR,1TE?? Thanks BIG time

  26. Justin Burke says:
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    Doc, I have a major problem and I’m thinking of doing something either really smart or really stupid. I could use your help. I’m in a 12-team, keeper league with standard scoring. I won last year, so I pick on the turn. My team, going into the draft already looks like this with my keepers:

    1)
    2)
    3)Philip Rivers
    4)
    5)Jamaal Charles
    6)
    7)Jeremy Maclin
    8)Hakeen Nicks
    9)
    10)
    11)
    12)Kenny Britt

    Now, including Charles from my team, these other first round players are gone: Foster, Mendenhall, D Mac, Vick, and Rodgers. Who would you take on the turn with your first two picks, assuming they fall to you? I’m seriously considering passing on a Turner, S Jax type player and taking the best available WR, who will either be Jennings or Calvin, and then Gates…mainly because I have Rivers and I know he wont be there for me if I wait til the 4th round. Then, with my 4th pick, I reach and grab Ingram or the best available back. This has been keeping me up at nights. Any ideas?

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