Top Bets

In this article, we will review annual player incentives to see if we can use this information to help us with potential player props and DFS top bets plays for Week 18. First, a contract incentive is something embedded into a player’s contract that allows them to make more money if they hit a certain production threshold. For example, if a player hits 100 receptions in a season, they earn $250,000 as an incentive for hitting that benchmark.

We identified 8 players that can be reached in Week 18. Below is a breakdown of how each section will be broken out for each player. Later in the article, we will discuss each incentive and some background on the player’s historical stats to see how obtainable the incentive will be in Week 18. Please note that some of the player pros are not available yet, but we will add them later in the week as they come in.

To hear a full breakdown of these player props and incentives, join us live this Friday at 5:00 p.m. PST on the Razzball Fantasy YouTube channel.

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Player – This represents the name of the person who is up for the incentive

Incentive – This represents what type of bonus is laid out in the contract i.e. receptions, yards or TDs to earn that incentive for the season

Current Number – This represents where the player currently stands on the season in that statistic

Player Prop – DK = DraftKings and PP = Prize Picks

Top Player Props

Player: Baker Mayfield
Incentive: Top 10 in the NFL or Top 5 in the NFC in Passing Yards and/or Yards Per Attempt
Current Rank: 8^th in Passing Yards and 10^th in Yards Per Attempt
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: 228.5)

As it stands today, Baker Mayfield is set to cash in on some major incentives. Mayfield will earn $300,000 for being Top 10 in the NFL or Top 5 in the NFC in passer rating, TD passes, passing yards, and yards per pass attempt. He’s already locked up touchdowns, but C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts are all hot on his heels in passing yards. Baker will have a tough test on the road vs. the Panthers who he only had 202 passing yards against earlier this year, but he will need to do a lot better than that to hold off the field and earn that money.

Player: DeAndre Hopkins
Incentive: 75 Receptions / 1050 Receiving Yards / 8 Touchdowns
Current Number: 68 Receptions / 1011 Receiving Yards / 6 Touchdowns
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: TBD)

DeAndre Hopkins can make upwards of $750,000 this weekend if he hits all three of his player incentives. Hopkins has hit seven receptions in four games, 39 yards in 12 games, and scored multiple touchdowns just once. The most logical bet seems to be his receptions where his line should be around five this week, but if we see a 0.5 TD prop, it might make sense to take that over as well.

Player: Joe Mixon
Incentive: 12 Total Touchdowns
Current Number: 10 Total Touchdowns
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: TBD)

Joe Mixon has a $350,000 incentive if he scores 12 total touchdowns this season. Currently, sitting at 10, Mixon has scored two touchdowns in just one game this season. Notably, Mixon is also just 77 rushing yards away from 1,000 yards as well. With the Bengals eliminated from the playoffs, and Mixon on the last year of his deal, maybe Cincy gives him a shot for multiple scores.

Player: Odell Beckham Jr
Incentive: 35 Receptions
Current Number: 40 Receptions
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: TBD)

There is a slim chance Odell Beckham plays this weekend, but if he’s active, then there is a good shot the Ravens are going to get him the ball. Beckham needs just five receptions to cash in on a $250,000 bonus. Beckham has caught just five passes in two games this season.

Player: Austin Ekeler
Incentive: 1,015 Total Yards
Current Number: 1,125 Total Yards
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: TBD)

It has been a disappointing season so far for Austin Ekeler, but heading into Week 18, he has a chance to cash in. Ekeler needs just 110 total yards to get a $100,000 incentive. In 2023, Ekeler has hit 110 total yards in three games. This week, he will face a Chiefs team with nothing to play for, which means Ekeler could be facing backups.

Player: Alexander Mattison
Incentive: 750 Rushing Yards
Current Number: 676 Total Yards
Player Props: (DK: TBD) (PP: TBD)

Unfortunately, for Alexander Mattison, it looks like he lost his starting job to TY Chandler. Over the past two weeks, Mattison has only received five carries. On top of that, Mattison has rushed for 74 yards in just three games. Unless his player prop is really low, I would probably stay away.

Player: Devin Singletary
Incentive: 1,000 Total Yards
Current Number: 835 Total Yards
Player Props: (DK: 61.5) (PP: 61.5)

Let’s start with the obvious: 165 rushing from Devin Singletary is probably not going to happen. That being said, the Texans have a lot to play for, and Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in three games this season. This week, he gets a juicy matchup vs. the Colts, and with his player prop less than half of what he needs for the incentive, that makes it kind of interesting to take the over.

Player: Dalton Schultz
Incentive: 700 Receiving Yards
Current Number: 593 Receiving Yards
Player Props: (DK: 44.5) (PP: 44.5)

Dalton Schultz needs just 107 receiving yards to cash in on a $250,000 bonus for the 2023 season. This number seems a bit far-fetched, but Schultz did eclipse this number once this season in Week 9 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This week, Schultz will face the Colts, who have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

For more from Bobby and his Razzball content, find him on Twitter @bobbylamarco.

Sources: Razzball.com, PFF.com, FantasyPros, FFToday, Pro Football Reference Spotrac.com, and Football Outsiders