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The TD Rushing/Receiving Share Tool provides valuable insights into an individual player’s rushing team share, rushing red zone team share, rushing touchdown team share as well as receiving target team share, receiving red zone target team share, and receiving touchdown team share. We will review the sustainability of red zone opportunities and touchdown production of a few players heading into the 2024 season.

This model identifies players who had anomalously high or low rushing and receiving TD rates over a rolling 18-week period of regular season games (including the previous season) with a minimum of four games played. The TD models for rushing and receiving are position-specific and derived based on the player’s overall and red zone shares in games they played 1+ snaps.

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Teams

  • Team: Buffalo Bills
  • Players: Josh Allen & James Cook

Josh Allen accounted for 22% of the Bills’ rushing attempts and 31.3% of the Bills’ red zone rushing attempts in 2023. Allen ran for a career-high 15 TDs, which accounted for 69.6% of the Bills’ rushing touchdowns (22). Razzball’s model indicates Allen should have rushed closer to 7 TDs or 31.3% of the Bills’ rushing TDs. Expect TD regression in 2024 as our model predicts Allen should see a 38.3% reduction in scoring or roughly eight fewer TDs.

You may ask yourself, who would be the main beneficiary of this regression?  The answer is James Cook. Cook tied with Allen for a team-high 31.1% red zone rushing shares but finished with an 8.7% TD rushing share. Our model expected him to have a 26.9% increase in rushing scores or 5.9 TDs. Cook ended 2023 with 1 rushing score, finishing as the RB11 in half PPR in 2023.  If he ends the season with the additional rushing TDs according to our model, Cook finishes as the RB4. The Bills RB is being drafted as the RB14 in the fourth round. 

  • Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Players: Gabe Davis & Brian Thomas Jr.

Last season for Jacksonville in games played with Calvin Ridley (17) and Zay Jones (9), these two were red zone target hogs accounting for 63.4% of looks for Trevor Lawrence. Ridley was highest on the team with 36.4% receiving TD share (8), while Jones was last at 14.3% (2). Interestingly, our model projected Jones to have 24.3% receiving TD share in his 9 games played which equates to 2 TDs or a 10% increase. If Jones was able to secure two more receiving TDs, he would have been tied for second on the Jags with receiving TDs. Ridley finished last season as WR17 in half PPR. 

Both WRs are no longer on the Jaguars roster and the returning receiving options Evan Engram and Christian Kirk tallied a combined seven TDs a season ago. Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. make compelling selections in drafts as they join a Jags team needing outside WR production.  They will share the chance to take on the vacated 40% team target share, 60% of the red zone target share, and double-digit TDs. Rudy projects the Jaguars newcomers for roughly 100 targets, 800 yards, and 5 TDs. Thomas Jr. is going as the WR46 and Davis as the WR63. One is bound to surprise everyone.

 

Individual Players

  • Player: Drake London

London has the worst luck among WRs last per our model. He only had a 12.5% receiving TD share (2), ranking 73rd among WRs despite having a 30.5% red zone target share, which ranked 12th among WRs. The model suggests he should ended the season with three more receiving TDs, an 18.6% increase, which would have led the Falcons with five TDs. I know it’s a low total amount, but London is the top WR in ATL in a new WR-friendly system with upgraded QBs. I expect career highs across the board, especially in the TD department. Our community seems to agree on his outlook as the 12th WR off the board in drafts.

  • Players: Rhamondre Stevenson & Antonio Gibson

These two RBs are playing together for the first time under new OC Alex Van Pelt. Last season, the Browns utilized their RBs in an interesting committee and I wonder how it will translate to the Patriots. Jerome Ford had a 40% rushing share in games played, while Kareem Hunt was used 31% of the time. Ford also had a higher target share out of the backfield with 10%, while Hunt just saw a 4.5% target share. What stands out to me is that Hunt was given more opportunities in the red zone than Ford.

Hunt had a 54.5% red zone rushing share and a 71.4% rushing TD team share. Essentially Ford was given the majority of the work on the field until the red zone as Hunt doubled Ford in TDs 9 to 4. Could Gibson take on Hunt’s role, thus limiting Stevenson’s TD potential? Stevenson has not scored more than 5 TDs in a season over his first three seasons.  Gibson has scored 11 and 7 rushing TDs in separate seasons. Stevenson is currently going at RB20, while Gibson is going at RB53.

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# Name Team Pos Games