In an attempt to help determine which quarterback, wide receiver, and/or tight end to start in week one we have sliced and diced some statistics.  The stats we are using are the last six games of last season.  With numerous off season moves there are some inaccuracies with using the data to predict 2011 outcomes.  As the season moves forward, we will use this season’s stats and increase the accuracy of this column.

Before clicking on this column you already knew Pittsburgh, the New York Jets, and the Packers were good against the pass.  You also already knew that your studs like Aaron Rodgers, Andre Johnson, and Antonio Gates were going to be in your starting lineup regardless of their opponent.

The goal here is to help layout why Jimmy Graham might be a better start than Dallas Clark or to give you that confidence to play Matt Ryan instead of Joe Flacco.

We would love to hear your comments, questions, and concerns about this information.  We believe these stats can be beneficial when setting your lineup and we want to make sure it is as user-friendly as possible.

Key:

Rank: Overall ranking of each team.

Team: The team that is being evaluated for their defensive strength

Opp: The team with your fantasy players

Yds/Gm: Total passing yards given up per game

QB FPA: Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks

Comp%: Completion Percentage against

WR FPA: Fantasy points allowed to wide receivers

TE FPA: Fantasy points allowed to tight ends

DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average

Yds/c: Yards Per Catch

TDs: Passing touchdowns allowed

Average: The average of each each individual ranking (this makes up the overall ranking)

  1. Iceman says:
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    Interesting. Should be even more interesting to see where Philly ranks this week….can’t be 32.

  2. John H says:
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    I’m in a PPR league, looking for a WR and a Flex. Mike Williams(TB), Danny Amendola, Robert Meachem, Darren Sproles, Derrick Ward, Dex McCluster, Aaron Hernandez, and Jared Cook.

    I’m thinking I’ll need a big day to win against my opponent.

  3. Iceman says:
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    Meachem could be a decent play if Lance Moore is out.

  4. Jeb says:
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    This is a great resource, gents. Much obliged. What do you recommend we do with the Dallas WRs this week? I’ve got Dez and I’m wondering if I should sit him for Jacoby Ford in a return yardage league . . .

  5. hideousmutants says:
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    Echoing Jeb’s question, I’ve got Romo and Austin. I could swap in Stafford for Romo and Manningham for Austin. Thoughts?

  6. cockyphoenix says:
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    OK so I won’t start Cam this week then

  7. Random Collmenter says:
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    start kolb v. carolina or eli v. redskins this week? thanks.

  8. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Iceman: You would hope not!

  9. John H says:
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    Random Collmenter, My gut says Kolb. I see that NFC East battle getting defensive.

    hideous, I’m tempted to go Stafford and just avoid the Jets, but I couldn’t do it. Romo will get his. I couldn’t sit Dez for Jacoby Ford, Jeb. But Hideous, I think I’d try to find out who Darrelle Revis will be on. During his monster 2009, #2 receivers put up strong numbers because the QB had nowhere else to go. If Revis is on Dez, Austin could be in for a big day.

    Iceman, I agree on Meachem. If Moore is out it’ll be hard to sit him. I’m high on Amendola, especially against the Eagles where I think Bradford will have to look at short routes over the middle as Asomugha will take away the deep threats. I really love Cook and Hernandez this year… I could see Hernandez being the only deep threat on a team that LOVES to test defenses deep. Decisions, decisions…

  10. John H says:
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    @Doc: Wow… two Val Kilmer classics having a conversation. If Abraham Lincoln was here I’d think I was having a fever dream.

  11. Calogero says:
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    Who should I flex?:

    Best
    Burleson
    Bush (Michael)
    Jones (Julio)
    McGahee

  12. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    Doc:can you give me your opinion on this team I just drafted?….10 team h2h non ppr.

    QB-Brees
    WR-Mike Wallace
    WR-Brandon Lloyd
    RB-Ray Rice
    RB-Ahmad Bradshaw
    TE-Jared Cook
    W/R-Jahvid Best
    K-Adam Vinatieri
    D/ST-NE
    BN-Kenny Britt
    BN-Fred Jackson
    BN-Austin Collie
    BN-Mike Sims-Walker
    BN-Ben Tate
    BN-Jacoby Ford

    thnks.

  13. Paul Johnson

    Paul Johnson says:
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    @Iceman: Eagles won’t be at the bottom for long. Last years stats are why they did what they did in the off season. These stats will get more useful as we collect more current data.

  14. Paul Johnson

    Paul Johnson says:
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    @John H: Lots of questions marks and crowded situations around the listed players. I would Williams and Amendola.

  15. Paul Johnson

    Paul Johnson says:
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    @Jeb: A solid argument can be made for starting Ford, especially if you get a lot of points for return yards (1 pt/20yrds or more). I am very high on Dez this season and tend to lean that direction even against the Jets.

  16. Paul Johnson

    Paul Johnson says:
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    @hideousmutants: As odd as it may sound, I would stick with Romo, but also go with Manningham. My gut (which is bigger then my brain) thinks the Jets will take away the Dallas #1 WR, but Romo will still get his points.

  17. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    @Oilcan Giuseppe: I would love feedback from anyone actually….thnks.

  18. John says:
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    Here is a current trade I was offered
    I give up:
    Vincent Jackson
    Reggie Bush

    I receive:
    Michael Turner
    Plaxico Burress

    He said he is also willing to listen to other offers. Here is the rest of his team.
    Peyton Manning
    Arian Foster
    Michael Turner
    Wes Welker
    Brandon Marshall
    Percy Harvin
    Jermichael Finley

    Sidney Rice
    Julio Jones
    TIm Hightower
    Plaxico Burress
    Lee Evans
    McNabb
    Zach Miller

    Any other possible trade proposals that I could counter with that you think may be more beneficial to me? Should I just leave my team the way it is?
    1st Year of 10 Team PPR Keeper League
    QB: Romo
    RB: Forte
    RB: Shonn Greene
    Flex: V Jax
    WR: Roddy White
    WR: Calvin Johnson
    TE: Jason Witten
    D/ST: Bears
    BE: Lynch
    BE: Mike Thomas
    BE: Reggie Bush
    BE: Stafford
    BE: Jimmy Graham
    BE: Cedric Benson
    BE: Amendola

  19. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Oilcan Giuseppe: Very strong. I don’t see any real holes and your bench is solid. In 10 team leagues of course it is hard to not have a decent team so the competition will be tough.

  20. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @John: Not a horrible trade, but I am down on Turner for PPR pretty far. VJax isn’t great in PPR either, but I don’t see enough of an upgrade over Greene there. I could see trying to get Marshall from him though.

  21. John says:
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    @Doc: So you suggest to try and propose a trade with me giving up Vincent Jackson and Reggie Bush for Michael Turner and Brandon Marshall? Or is that still not even enough for me to consider the trade? Also I am thinking about trading Jason Witten for a RB because I think Jimmy Graham will have a great year do you agree? Only problem is I like having Witten and Romo together? Which way should I go on this?

  22. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Timmy riggins: Ridley, Cook (though I love Kendricks), Cutler.

  23. timmy riggins says:
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    @Doc: Thanks for the response. I had already picked up orton bc he has a soft early sched. Would you drop Ridley for Cutler so i have 2 decent matchup based backups for manning or do you think ridley has too much upside to drop? 10 team .5ppr league w/flex, thanks again

  24. timmy riggins says:
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    @Doc: also have delone carter too

  25. John says:
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    he just canceled his original trade and offered me 2 others. I now can give him Vincent Jackson and Reggie Bush for Michael Turner and my choice of either Wes Welker or Brandon Marshall. Worth it for me?

  26. genghis chone says:
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    just drafted, thoughts? Does this look like a championship squad or do I need to upgrade at QB? 2 QB league, PPR, 10 teams. Lance Kendricks, Deji Karim, Cam Newton, Matt Hasselbeck, Rex Grossman (barf) are FAs. Thanks!

    QB Vick
    QB Orton
    RB Forte
    RB Felix Jones
    RB/WR Hightower
    WR Hakeem Nicks
    WR Dez Bryant
    TE Gronk
    K Feely
    BN Fitzpatrick, Ingram, Ben Tate, Britt, Julio Jones, Amendola, Denarius Moore, Jared Cook

  27. John says:
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    @Doc: why Welker over Marshall? Because its a PPR league?

  28. John H says:
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    @Oilcan Giuseppe: I wouldn’t change a thing, I like what youve got. Don’t be afraid if Rice gets off to a bad start against Pittsburgh this week, and don’t be tempted to trade Britt or Fred Jackson for elite starter upgrades… you need that depth and if you stay the course this looks like a championship team to me… even in a ten team this is nice. Good work.

  29. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    @Doc/Paul Johnson….generally speaking,how big of an impact do y’think Jahvid Best can have this yr?….I’m pretty high on him.I drafted him in all 4 leagues Im in,but pretty late each time.I feel like I can get great value,and maybe end up w/ a sorta’ poor man’s Shady McCoy.Am I getting carried away or what?….

  30. sarge says:
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    So this list is suggesting I should start Mike Thomas and Jacoby Ford in lieu of Brandon Marshall and Lance Moore?

  31. Andrew says:
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    @Doc

    Trade offer: I give Stevie Johnson and Hightower, I get Vincent Jackson. Pull the trigger?

  32. Van Hammersly says:
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    @Doc: In a 12-team non-PPR league (2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex), another team has dropped Starks. Should I drop Ridley or Antonio Brown to pick him up for my bench? Thanks!

  33. Dan says:
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    I have to choose be Ingrahm vs. GB and Manningham vs. Washington for my flex. This makes me think Manningham is the way to go (even in a non-ppr league). Also, I will be starting Eli at QB with Peyton hurt. Thoughts on my flex spot?

    Thanks

  34. Plainview says:
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    12 team non-PPR league – need to start 2RB, 2 WR and 1 flex (RB/WR/TE). I have:

    Mendenhall
    Shonn Green
    Ryan Mathews
    Mike Tolbert
    Roy Helu
    Dez Bryant
    Mike Thomas
    Lance Moore
    Amendola

    I was planning to start:

    Mendenhall
    Shonn Green
    Ryan Mathews
    Dez Bryant
    Mike Thomas

    But, I could see an argument for starting Mathews and Tolbert. Thoughts?

  35. Nick says:
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    @Anyone

    Drafted last night in a 14 team Non-PPR Standard league with 1 w/r/te flex position with the 12th overall pick. Could someone give me some feedback regarding my team? I’m mainly a Baseball Razzballer but I’m trying to get more into NFL fantasy. Any help would be appreciated. Here’s my draft:

    QB Romo
    RB MJD
    RB Fred Jackson
    WR Calvin Johnson
    WR Dez Bryant
    WR Austin Collie
    TE Gronkowski
    WR/RB/TE ???
    K Feely
    BN Bradford, Ridley, Starks, Bess, Jacoby Jones, Bernard Scott, Randy Moss

    I feel pretty thin at RB and I’m really hoping MJD stays healthy. I drafted Bradford because I felt some teams were holding out on QB’s. With his upside I’m hoping he performs so I can use him to obtain a legit #2 back. Other than that, my late round picks were probably pretty sloppy because I myself was getting a little buzzed. Any idea who I should plug in the flex spot first week?

    Thanks so much guys!

  36. uncdrew says:
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    Damn you Peyton!!!

    So I grabbed Collins. He’s a better start than Eli this week, right?

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