Week 10 Air Yards Report: Top 5 Takeaways

Welcome, football fans, to the Razzball Air Yards Report. This is the place where we look at thrown footballs (both caught and NOT caught) to try and predict which receivers might have some positive and negative regression coming their way. Week 9 was another wild week in the 2023 air yards season, as you will see below.

If you want a refresher on what air yards are and how to best use them, here are my takeaways from 2022 air yards data. In this iteration of the air yards primer, we will look ahead to Week 10 of the fantasy football season and see who might be due for some positive or negative regression. I hope you will join me each and every Thursday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in air yards.

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Week 9 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Below we have air yards and receiving data courtesy of FTN.com. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you. 

This list represents the top 65 wide receivers from most to least air yards. From air yards all the way down to. I color-coded this to make the referencing easier to identify. If a wide receiver was closer to the top of a category, the darker green the number would be. The bottom of the list is primarily orange into red. 

Just an easy eye test from the colors on this chart gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 9. We will dig into the five biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset. 

Top 5 Takeaways From Week 9 Air Yards Data

Lamb Chops Up the Eagles

CeeDee Lamb almost grabbed the outright lead for most air yards in a game against the Eagles on Sunday when he piled up 234 on 16 targets from Dak Prescott. Only Davante Adams’ 240 air yards from Week 3 top that number, but there is no contest that Lamb is one of the most targeted and valuable receivers in the league right now. Lamb has 30 targets in just the last two weeks and is the top wide receiver in target share over the last three games at 38.5%. 

Among players who have played twice in the last two weeks, Lamb trails only Keenan Allen in air yards share (Allen has 57.3%, Lamb has 53.1%), and Lamb has 50 more air yards than any other wide receivers in that span. But perhaps the most incredible stat among all of them is that Lamb not only leads in air yards the last two weeks, he also has 25 more yards after the catch than any other wide receiver. To recap, Lamb is getting the most usage on targets in the league, and then he is doing the most with those targets once they are caught. 

It’s simply two of the most dominant weeks we have ever seen from a wide receiver. 

Tank Dell Air Yards Liftoff

If not for CeeDee Lamb’s dominance, we would only be talking about Tank Dell having a top-five air yards game on the season, with his 222 air yards in 11 targets. It was already the second game with more than 115 yards and at least one touchdown for the rookie, who is quickly becoming one of C.J. Stroud’s favorite targets. It was assumed that Nico Collins would be the alpha receiver in this offense, but Collins hasn’t had more than four receptions since Week 4 and is losing targets to Dell (18% target share since Week 6) and Dalton Schultz (27%).

Dell, despite already having a bye and missing one game, has 604 air yards this season. That’s more than Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Drake London, just to name a few stars. Stroud is showing that he likes to take chances down the field, and Dell is going to be the primary beneficiary of those tosses. It won’t always mean 114 receiving yards and two scores like it did on Sunday, but when they hit, they are going to hit big. 

DeAndre Hopkins Undertaker Gif

Cue the Undertaker gif for DeAndre Hopkins because, with Will Levis now officially under center for the Tennessee Titans, we may start to see plenty more of Hopkins in the passing game. He was fifth in the NFL with 150 air yards last week on 11 total targets. Those 11 targets have now helped push Hopkins to the top ten among wide receivers in target share this season (28.6%), and Hopkins is third in air yards the last two weeks behind only Lamb and Garrett Wilson. 

Compared to Ryan Tannehill and his old noodle arm, the cannon that Will Levis has attached to his body must feel like a complete reversal of fortune for Hopkins. Hopkins has always been one to be able to make big plays down the field, and his yards per reception this season (16.1) ranks 15th at the position for 2023. He is also top-20 in fantasy points per route run and expected points added, and Levis should only be able to even more effectively complement Hopkins’ vast skill set. 

Jahan Dotson Takeover

Through the first six weeks of 2023, Terry McLaurin was lapping the wide receiver field on his own team, with more than twice as many receptions, almost twice as many air yards, and a 30% target share compared to the next-closest wide receiver – Jahan Dotson with 16.8%. But since Week 7, Dotson has become much more involved and has clearly been the more dominant playmaker for this pass-happy Washington offense. His eight targets and 115 air yards are just the latest step in what has been a transition to Dotson becoming Sam Howell’s preferred target.

Since Week 7, the split between McLaurin and Dotson has narrowed significantly. McLaurin has 28% of the targets, Dotson has 27%. McLaurin has 299 air yards, and Dotson has 289. Dotson actually leads McLaurin in receptions (17 to 16) and in touchdowns (two to one). With Washington passing at the highest rate in the league this year (67.8%), this offense can certainly sustain two wide receivers in fantasy football, but Dotson is the one on the ascent and the one Howell looks to for their big plays. 

Davante Adams Stepladder

Part of the reason that Josh McDaniels is no longer the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders is he had just 14 total receptions from Weeks 5-8, bottoming out with one catch in Week 8. With Aiden O’Connell now under center and Antonio Pierce calling the plays, Adams got one small step back in the right direction with seven targets in Week 9. The 76 air yards is a good-not-great number, but should improve with more favorable game script for passing. Because of the dominance against the New York Giants in Week 9, the Raiders only threw the ball 42% of the time. 

On the season,  Las Vegas throws on 59% of their plays, which means more targets and air yards are on the when they have a more neutral game script or are playing catch-up (which they surely will be this season). Adams is a very nice buy low option for someone who is discouraged after just five catches the last two weeks. Better days should be ahead as Pierce attempts to give the squeaky wheel the grease and make his star wide receiver happy.