Week 11 finds another slate of bye weeks that are going to affect how you develop DFS rosters and select your best prop bets. Players like Tyrone Tracy of the Giants, Kyler Murray of the Cardinals, Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers, and well, perhaps someone on the Panthers, are all enjoying a little downtime while the rest of us keep pressing on. They’ll be back next week and should bring a few friends along, injured players like Mike Evans and Jonathan Brooks should be on the field too. Something to look forward to…but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s get through Week 11 first.
But before we get into the matchups, I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me. Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.
One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
- Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
- Home/Road Player Splits tool
- Win/Loss Player Splits tool
- TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool
Paying Up
- Player: C.J. Stroud
- Game: Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
- DK: $6,700 / FD: $8,200
You really don’t have to pay up for QB this week. For me, I’m happy to run with C.J. Stroud now that Nico Collins is back. Stroud has show flashes of his rookie campaign but really hasn’t put it together lately. Facing the 5th friendliest defense vs QBs should help. Since the game is on Monday night, the sunlight won’t be an issue in Jerry World either.
- Player: Joe Mixon
- Game: Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
- DK: $7,700 / FD: $9,300
Staying in Big D, my DFS rosters will have a heavy load of Joe Mixon this week. Mixon is almost a lock for a TD (6 of 7 games) and still getting 25 carries per game. The Cowboys defense is giving up the 3rd most RB TDs on the season as well. Seems like a Mixon TD might actually be a lock this week.
- Player: George Pickens
- Team: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- DK: $7,000 / FD: $7,500
As our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows, the Ravens defense is the #1 most vulnerable to wideouts, averaging over 33 fantasy points per game. These aren’t your dad’s Ravens, are they? George Pickens is in line to take advantage of that where he averages 63% of his points out wide.
- Player: Pat Freiermuth
- Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- DK: $4,200 / FD: $5,300
Staying in the same game, Baltimore defense is also in the bottom third of units vs TE. Also, Russ is cookin’ with gas these days, throwing to a 6 TD:1 INT ratio over his three games. For his part, Freiermuth is not exactly piling up the yards but he’s getting consistent targets and has found the end zone three times so far. He’s a little bit of a risk but I’m expecting relatively low ownership.
Bargain Shopping
- Player: Justin Herbert
- Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers
- DK: $5,300 / FD: $7,300
Justin Herbert is on a roll with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last three games and welcomes the Bengals who give up the 5th most points to QBs. He’s also projected to have one of the best cost/DFS points ratios for the weekend slate. Our Home/Road Player Splits tool shows Herbert as a 16% better play at home as well.
- Player: Nick Chubb
- Game: Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
- DK: $6,000 / FD: $6,200
With three games under his belt and coming in fresh off a bye week, Nick Chubb is a low-cost option for me this week. The Saints defense is particularly generous to RBs, allowing the 7th most yards, 2nd most TDs, and 2nd most overall fantasy points. This one is set up to be a slam for Chubb.
- Player: Elijah Moore
- Team: Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
- DK: $4,300 / FD: $5,500
While everyone continues to fawn over Cedric Tillman, I’m here to suggest you consider Elijah Moore this week instead. The top slot matchup in our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool this week favors the Browns. The Saints give up a league-worst 19.9 fantasy points to slot WRs. This favors Moore who lines up in the slot 60% of the time and is scoring 70% of his fantasy points there.
- Player: Brock Wright
- Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
- DK: $3,300 / FD: $4,600
With the news that Sam LaPorta is OUT for Sunday, Brock Wright draws a primo matchup against the 3rd best TE vs defense matchup this weekend. Don’t expect a one-for-one replacement for LaPorta here but for the price, why not take a shot.
Prop Plays
Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.
Anthony Richardson (Rushing Yards): Richardson is back under center and the one thing we know he can do is run the ball. For their part, the Jets are below average in allowing rushing yards to QBs.
Russell Wilson (Passing Yards, 2+ TDs): The Ravens are the ONLY team allowing over 300 yards passing at this stage of the season. Russ has 260+ in two of his three games since returning as starter.
Joe Mixon (Rushing Yards, Anytime TD): Remember above where I said Joe Mixon was almost a lock for a TD? He’s also a good bet for 100+ yards since he’s hit that mark in five of seven games. By the way, RBs versus the Cowboys are averaging 111 yards per game. Giddy Up!
Nick Chubb (Anytime TD): I’m going back to the well from one of my DFS picks above. The Only the Panthers (1.40) have a higher TD rate to RBs than the Saints (1.20).
Kyren Williams (Rushing Yards, Anytime TD): Kyren Williams is a beast and the Patriots defense vs RBs is not. The Patriots give up the 5th most RB yards and 5th most RB TDs.
Khalil Shakir (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Looking at our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool, the Chiefs allow the 4th most points to slot WRs and Shakir is scoring almost 80% from the position. Who among us thinks the Bills are going to just grind it out? Me neither!
Tyler Conklin (Receptions, Yards, Anytime TD): Tyler Conklin hasn’t been producing much lately. In truth, that can be said for the Jets in general. If the Jets have any chance at the post season, they need to get right in this game. The Colts allow the 3rd most receptions to TEs and Conklin’s prop numbers should be reasonable for a pseudo-breakout game. I just locked in a 3-pick parlay here for +650.
That’s All Folks!
Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.
As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!
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Until next time, my friends!
