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Week 10 provided us with a receiving performance for the record books. For the first time in NFL history, we saw a rookie WR catch his first three TDs in the same game. Coming into Week 10, Christian Watson received a total of 14 targets, converting 10 of those for 88 yards. With Romeo Doubs out for extended time, the Packers were desperate for someone to step forward, and Watson did so in a big way. He hauled in four of his eight targets for 107 yards and three scores. In fact, Watson was the only three-TD scorer in all of Week 10. Target Trends Week 11.
He provided the Packers exactly what they needed to beat the Cowboys for what may feel was a season-saving win. He’ll need to show up once again tonight against the Titans if the Packers are going to realize their goal of making the playoffs. If he’s able to log another high-target performance, he may earn the honor of being profiled in my Week 12 “Target Trends” article. I sure hope he can put that pressure out of his mind and just focus on the game!
Across the NFL, 15 players had double-digit targets in Week 10, led by Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson. The latter provided us the catch of the year in a pivotal fourth and long, directly leading to arguably the game of the year by the final whistle. Besides Diggs and Jefferson leading the pack, only two of the remaining 15 players were WRs. In fact, WRs logged the top seven fantasy scorers for the week. Target Trends Week 11 Target Trends Week 11 Target Trends Week 11 Target Trends Week 11.
The only non-WRs to log double-digit targets were Austin Ekeler and T.J. Hockenson. Overall, the impact of these targets for fantasy football was clearly on display this week. For example, in points per reception (PPR) scoring, almost half of the top targeted scored 20+ points, and only one of the fifteen failed to score 11+ points. So, as we look ahead to Week 11, let’s never forget the importance of finding those players who are consistently targeted because that is the secret to success!
Read on to see who I’m “targeting” this week:
Week 10 Target Monsters/Week 11 Outlook:
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings: When T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings, many fantasy owners were concerned that his target share would suffer. That question has been soundly answered. Hockenson logged a season-high 73 snaps versus the Bills and was targeted 10 times by Cousins. This outing was built on top of the nine targets the previous week. During his time with the Lions, Hockenson only surpassed nine targets once. Let’s put those fears to rest once and for all. The Vikings have some excellent matchups upcoming against lower-third defenses (versus TEs) in the following weeks. The Vikings are flying high right now, and so should all Hockenson fantasy owners.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars: I wrote about Christian Kirk in last week’s Target Trends article. I noted the Chiefs were 25th in the league versus WRs and gave up almost 14 PPG to slot receivers like Kirk. True to form, Kirk had a big game, turning 12 targets into nine receptions for 105 yards and two scores. I also noted the Jags have some WR-friendly matchups after the Week 11 bye week and that you should offer the Kirk owner a trade before your deadline. If you haven’t yet, seek out the Kirk owner and offer him a deal. If someone made a desperate move and he’s available on your wire, use the rest of your budget to get him on your roster. He won’t help you this week, but you’ll thank me later.
Davante Adams, Raiders: The Raiders’ season is going down the drain fast, but the one area we can finally count on is consistent targets for Davante Adams. Following a 3-game stretch where the Raiders’ offense seemed to go away from their playmaker, Adams has garnered 31 targets in the last two, leading to a whopping 64 fantasy points (PPR). Adams splits his time evenly between the slot and wideout positions, making him less vulnerable to defenses that are stronger versus one or the other. For example, the Colts’ defense gives up less than eight PPG to slot receivers but over 14 PPG to wideouts. Adams promptly gave us a stat line of 9-126-1 versus that same defense. The Raiders have a must-win game against the Broncos and a defense that allows 24.2 PPG to receivers, evenly split between slot and wideouts. If the Raiders are going to win, Adams will need to remain highly targeted.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals: Following a target blip in week seven versus the Saints, Rondale Moore’s targets are back up to 10+ per game. He turned that into consistent production with 57 fantasy points over the past three. Reports suggest Marquise Brown is closing in on a return to the field, so many may feel Moore will see a drop in targets. Not so fast. A majority of Moore’s routes are run from the slot, with Brown and Hopkins more at the wideout position. Therefore, Moore should maintain a consistent role in this offense, especially against defensive matchups favoring slot receivers. The Cardinals’ Week 11 opponent, the 49ers, just happens to be one of those teams. Use Moore with confidence this week.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders: We don’t usually see the words “Washington” and “consistency” in the same sentence, but that’s appropriate for Terry McLaurin. Over the past four games, McLaurin had between eight and 11 targets per game, pacing the Commanders’ offense to wins in three of the four. To keep up the streak, he’ll have to get the better of a Texans’ defense that ranks top five versus WRs and, specifically, 13 PPG to wideouts. Scary Terry is a must-start for fantasy managers but temper expectations a bit. He should get his targets, but he may not surpass the 20+ PPG threshold he did versus the Eagles on Monday night.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs: As I wrap up the feature portion of the article, I want to give a shout-out to Jerick McKinnon. The Chiefs backfield is in flux, with carries typically being split between three RBs and one to two WRs. In fact, Patrick Mahomes led all players in rushing attempts in the Week 9 win versus the Titans. A bright spot in the Chiefs backfield is the back-to-back games in which Jerick McKinnon received eight targets, converting six of those to receptions in each case. In a season where fantasy RB depth is at an all-time low, rostering a player like McKinnon during the bye weeks may mean the difference between the fantasy playoffs and the consolation bracket. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, ranks 31st against RBs and is particularly vulnerable to players like McKinnon. Look for this trend to continue moving forward.
That’s the end of my featured players. Like last week’s article, I’ll move on to my version of the two-minute drill and fire off some additional matchups that are trending for me in Week 10.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: St. Brown has been battling ankle and concussion issues for many weeks, but he finally appears to be getting back to full speed. His target share over the past three games is back over the double-digit mark, and the production is following suit. He has some really nice WR-friendly matchups coming up, so join me in crossing your fingers that he stays healthy.
Cole Kmet, Bears: Kmet remains on fire, turning 13 targets over the past two weeks into nine receptions and four TDs. The Falcons aren’t exactly stout against TEs (25th) so expect this trend to continue.
Adam Thielen, Vikings: Adam Thielen is now clearly the third target in this Vikings offense, but that is still valuable to us. He’s consistently logging seven-plus targets in every game since Week 1 and remains a viable WR3 in fantasy, averaging low double-digit scores each week.
Joshua Palmer, Chargers: While the Chargers’ top two WRs continue to mend injuries, Joshua Palmer continues to average double-digit targets. Over the past three games where he’s taken on the lion’s share of work, Palmer has 30 total targets, scoring over 14 fantasy points in two of them. The Chargers WR room is getting healthy, but it appears Palmer has solidified his role in the offense.
Agree/Disagree? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Also, feel free to send any trade questions or roster decisions. I’m always happy to provide some fantasy advice to our loyal followers. Good luck with all your team…unless you’re competing against me!
