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Welcome to Bye-mageddon (Part 1)! With the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints and Jets all on bye, a large number of preferred players will be watching from the sidelines, or perhaps the beaches of the Caribbean. What does that mean for us in the DFS/Prop world? Well, less choices and higher ownership potential. Nothing we can’t navigate though. On the plus side, we do have a couple additional options that maybe available. I’m talking about Mike Evans and Isiah Pacheco (still limited) in particular but it also extends to rookie Jonathan Brooks as well. Don’t fret, my friends, when the NFL gives us lemons, we make lemon bars or lemon meringue pie! You thought I was going to say something else, didn’t you?

I’ll contemplate my favorite lemon desserts later, right now it’s time for some football discussion.

But before we get into the matchups, I’m going to kick the podium again because it’s working for me. Razzball has both free and premium tools to give you every angle needed to make informed choices when creating lineups or evaluating props. Below you’ll find my high-end and
low-end options for DFS, perfectly suited to plug into our Sabersim’s DFS optimizer to round out your lineups. Following that, I’ll give you prop plays I really like.

One final note before getting into the recommendations, if you need a refresher on our free and premium tools, you can review my previous article HERE. I have links to our free tools scattered through the article but if you want to skip the line and go right in and check them out, here you go (again, all for free at football.razzball.com):
Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool
Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool
Home/Road Player Splits tool
Win/Loss Player Splits tool
TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool

Paying Up

– Player: Jalen Hurts
– Game: Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
– DK: $7,800 / FD: $9,300
If you’re going to spend up for QB, look no further than Jalen Hurts. He draws an excellent matchup against a Rams defense that ranks lower third versus QBs. The Rams have been better at home though, limiting Sam Darnold to 240 yards and 2 TDs in Week 8 and Tua Tagovailoa to 207 yards and 1 TD in Week 10. Neither are Jalen Hurts though, who has no problem playing on the road (the “tush push” travels). In fact, his two top games of the season are also the last two road games for Philly. No worries here.

– Player: Brian Robinson Jr.
– Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
– DK: $5,600 / FD: $7,900
Players on DK will note that Brian Robinson Jr. is an economical play versus the 30th ranked defense against the run. He’s a little pricier on FD so I’ll put him here. Robinson is averaging 12-16 carries and about 68 yards and a TD over his last three games. On the other hand, the
Cowboys are coming off a game where they gave up 109 yards and 3 TDs to Joe Mixon.

– Player: Tyreek Hill 
– Team: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
– DK: $7,200 / FD: $8,500
As our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool shows, the Patriots are giving up the 8th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers with 35. Hill scores 3.5 more fantasy points per game at home. In their first matchup back in Week 5, Hill had six receptions on nine targets for 69 yards. That (unfortunately) is his fourth highest yardage total on the season. That was also with Tyler Huntley at QB. Tyreek has scored in back-to-back weeks and Bill Belichick isn’t there to haunt Tua Tagovailoa. We’re due for a vintage Cheetah game. This may be the week. 

– Player: Travis Kelce
– Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
– DK: $5,800 / FD: $7,200

Let’s not over think this. Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce. He got slowed down by a stout defense that knows him well when Buffalo held him to just two receptions for eight yards last week. In the three previous games, Kelce went 32/254/2 on 40 targets. The panthers have let up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Expect the Chiefs to score early and often in a bounce-back game after a rare loss. 

Bargain Shopping

– Player: Justin Herbert
– Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
– DK: $5,400 / FD: $7,400
I had Justin Herbert in this spot last week and he rewarded me with 297 passing yards and 2 TDs. He also chipped in 65 rushing yards as a bonus. However, DK and FD only bumped his cost by $100 each, despite the matchup against the third-worst defense vs QB. Our Home/Road Player Splits tool had Herbert as a 16% better play at home last week. That number bumps up to 20% better at home this week.

– Player: Rhamondre Stevenson
– Game: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
– DK: $5,900 / FD: $6,400
We’ve seen a somewhat resurgent Rhamondre Stevenson over the past month. While the yards aren’t piling up like many other #1 RBs, he’s still putting up quality numbers, bolstered by the three TDs scored in the last four games. He draws a favorable matchup in South Florida against a team he’s had recent success against (Week 5: 89 yards and a TD).

– Player: Josh Downs
– Team: Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints
– DK: $4,300 / FD: $5,500
Downs didn’t see the drop in production most expected last week in Anthony Richardson’s return. He caught all five targets going 5/84/1. He runs 80% of his routes from the slot and the Lions give up the 6th most fantasy points to slot WRs. We know the Lions will score (put up cool 52 vs. Jacksonville last week). Downs should be busy in catchup mode and potentially some “garbage time” chunk plays.

– Player: Hunter Henry
– Game: New England Patriots @ Miami 
– DK: $4,000 / FD: $5,200
Henry is the 15th listed TE on FanDuel. That’s silly. He’s behind both Ravens TEs. He’s averaged 6.8 targets in six starts with Drake Maye. Henry has been a Top 10 TE in four of those six games and has seen eight redzone targets. Miami gives up the 13th-most fantasy points to TEs. 

Prop Plays

Below are some of my favorite prop bets to explore. Shop around for the best odds and if you feel strongly about a few, consider a parlay. Share your favorites in the comments below.

Patrick Mahomes (Passing Yards | 300+ at +425 on DK): Pop quiz… has Mahomes thrown for 300+ yards at all this season? Yes, but only ONCE!?!. That changes Sunday. The Panthers have actually been decent versus the pass, but that’s because they’re dreadful against the run and can’t score themselves. With Pacheco out again this week and the Chiefs coming off a rare loss, I have a feeling Mahomes might turn back the clock a bit just for funsies. You’ve already read the Kelce is more TE of choice. Bet on his QB too. 

Bo Nix (Passing TDs | 3+ at +500 on DK): In Week 5 against the Raiders, Nix was the QB8 with 23 fantasy points. Both are his third highest in each category. He did that on just 27 attempts which was his third fewest on the season. He threw for two TDs and ran for another. The Broncos offense is humming and the Raiders defense… is not. The +500 payback for a very realistic possibility is well worth my money. 

Bucky Irving (Rushing Yards | O 53.5 on FD): Irving is the better rusher for the Buccaneers. He’s rushed for more than 54 yards four times this season and is coming off a bye week with fresh legs. The rookie has the 7th best explosive run rate, 3rd most missed tackles forced by RBs and 13th most yards after contact. The Giants have give up the 4th most rushing yards per game. I expect a spirited effort from the Giants after this week’s Daniel Jones mess, but Tampa Bay should roll. 

Austin Ekeler (Rushing + Receiving Yards | 100+ at +800 on DK): Ekeler has averaged 74 yards from scrimmage in the few games where Brian Robinson was also active. I expect his receiving to make up the bulk of this prop, but his rushing could exceed expectations as well. Over the last six games, Dallas has allowed the third-most explosive run rate and fourth-most rushing yards to RBs. Jayden Daniels has come down to earth recently (throwing for less than 210 passing yards over the last three weeks), Washington has a real chance to put it on Dem Boys in Washington after being swept by Dallas last year. It should come through the ground game and dump offs. 

Mike Evans (Receiving Yards | 90+ at +340 on FD): This one’s a “gut-call”. Evans has been out since early Week 7. He has only surpassed 90+ yards once this season way back in Week 4. The Giants have only allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points to out wide WRs, but few QBs pepper their favorite receiver like Baker Mayfield can. Evans needs to average 95 receiving yards per game the rest of the season to achieve his 11th straight 1,000+ receiving yards streak. I think he’s got a shot out the gate this week with Chris Godwin out for the season.  

Hunter Henry (Anytime Touchdown +300 on FD): I made the case above, but wanted to add that Maye has thrown nine touchdowns in his 5+ starts this season. Henry only has one of those, but should see a few opportunities this weekend. Lowkey shootout potential in Miami. I like Henry’s chances at a score.

That’s All Folks

Enjoy the weekend’s game and good luck with your DFS and prop betting. Remember, don’t bet what you don’t have and leave those large GPPs for others…they are a fools bet for most of us. Stick with the action you have the best chance of cashing.

As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com. Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), @Derek_Favret, Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show. Come for the insight, stay for the fun!

Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X Sky (@SkyGuasco).

Until next time, my friends!

If you’re scoring at home, these DFS plays and props are compliments of our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed tool, our Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide tool, our Home/Road Player Splits tool, our Win/Loss Player Splits tool, and our new TD Rushing/Receiving Share tool. Again, all for free at football.razzball.com.

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