Week 11 was strange in the NFL. It started on Thursday night with the Titans planting a flag at Lambeau Field after a convincing win versus the Packers. On Sunday, the Eagles needed a comeback versus a stingy Colts defense; the Patriots won a game where the only TD was scored by a punt return in the final minute, the Saints stuck a fork in the defending champs, and the Lions and Cowboys both destroy two NFC-leading teams on the road. Sunday Night Football reminded us how good the Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection could be, and on Monday night, the 49ers showed Mexico City and the NFL they are strong contenders.
On the receiving front, Week 11 gave us only eight players with double-digit targets, led by a trio of WRs in Tee Higgins, Davante Adams and Wan’Dale Robinson. As I look down the target list, what I find more interesting is the number of TEs I see in the upper tier of targets. The list is dominated by WRs, as expected. However, a total of seven TEs checked out with seven or more targets, while only 2 RBs did the same. With so few RBs heavily involved in the passing game, is it a coincidence that 11 teams scored less than 20 points in Week 11? Maybe, maybe not, but it was a strange week nonetheless. Let’s see what Week 12 will bring!
Read on to see who I’m “targeting” this week:
Week 11 Target Monsters/Week 12 Outlook:
Christian Watson, Packers: I stated in last week’s article if Christian Watson was able to log another standout performance, he may earn the honor of being profiled in my Week 12 Target Trends article. Here we are in the Week 12 article, and he’s getting front-row treatment, so I guess the pressure wasn’t too much for him. Prior to Week 10, Watson received a paltry total of 14 targets, converting 10 of those for 88 yards. Over the 4-day stretch of the Packers’ Week 11 & 12 games, Aaron Rodgers matched those season target numbers (14). Of course, what caught everyone’s attention was Watson making the most of those targets, turning them into 155 yards and 5 TDs. There’s no doubt Rodgers is locked in with his new weapon (all 5 TD passes over the past two games have gone to Watson), but I’m strongly encouraging caution here. I don’t see Watson as a fantasy league winner like some of my industry colleagues do. What I do see is two upcoming matchups against top 10 defense versus WRs (and tough QB matchups as well) before the Packers’ bye in Week 14. By the time fantasy playoffs roll around, though, the Packers will be officially flat-lined for playoff consideration and relegated to playing spoiler. Those games in Week 15 and beyond, besides the Rams, are all against NFL playoff contenders and have good WR matchups for Watson. So, I’m saying to temper your expectations on Watson for the next few weeks, then plan to roll with him as your WR2 or Flex during the fantasy playoffs.
Joshua Palmer, Chargers: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to the field, but it was Joshua Palmer once again pacing the Chargers WRs with double-digit targets. The Allen/Williams duo were clearly playing at less than 100% but still combined for nine targets as Palmer continued to shine for fantasy owners with 10 targets and 30+ PPR points. This week’s matchup versus the Cardinals, allowing almost 33 PPG to receivers, should provide plenty of opportunity for Palmer and the rest of the Chargers’ pass catchers. Once again, I’ll cut and paste a quote from last week’s article: “The Chargers WR room is getting healthy, but it appears Palmer has solidified his role in the offense.” Another 30+ PPR game may be a stretch, but 12-15 makes for a very nice flex play.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles: Despite a brief blip in Week 9 with only two targets, DeVonta Smith continues to thrive as defenses focus attention on A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert (prior to injury). Over the past two games, the wideout amassed 17 total targets, with 12 receptions for 117 yards and a score. His 13.8 PPR points bring the number of double-digit scoring games to 6 of 10 on the season. A matchup versus a Packer defense that allows 66% of wide receiver scoring to wideouts should see this trend continue, making him a solid WR #2 option.
Gabe Davis, Bills: I realize I may be slow coming around on this one, but Gabe Davis is starting to make a believer out of me. Let me explain… Many jumped on his bandwagon after the 171-yard/2 TD game in Week 5 versus the Steelers. I was hesitant to follow. He followed it up in Week 6 with a 74-yard/1 TD game versus the Chiefs. I remained on the sidelines. He came out of the Week 7 bye with a couple of clunkers, 2-35 and 2-33, respectively. Here I felt vindicated in my hesitancy. However, I’m starting to come around. At this point in his young career, I feel he’s proving to be a better NFL football player than a fantasy football player. Despite the roller coaster ride in production, he continues to receive plenty of Josh Allen’s targets. On the season, Davis is averaging six targets per game. This trend has increased to almost nine targets per game over the past two. That tells he secured the confidence in his QB and coaches. This also tells me more consistent fantasy production lies ahead. Looking at the Bills’ upcoming schedule, 5 of 7 remaining games facing top 10 defenses versus WRs. I expect fantasy owners will continue to experience the roller coaster, mixing a couple of clunkers with double-digit games the rest of the way. That said, I’m also confident we’ll see him continue to mature before our eyes overall, and I’m calling it now, Gabe Davis is a top-12 WR next season.
Tee Higgins, Bengals: Tee Higgins has been rock solid lately. Since his goose egg in Week 5 versus the Ravens, Higgins has maintained a steady average of 7-8 targets per week but peaked at a season-best 13 against the Steelers last Sunday. Those targets are paying off, as he has scored double-digit fantasy points each week, capped by his 23+ PPR points against those division-rival Steelers. It’s no coincidence that the Steelers’ defense is a league-worst 32nd versus WRs and particularly vulnerable to wideouts like Higgins. It also happens that the next two games versus the Titans and Chiefs are also WR-friendly (30th and 29th vs. WRs, respectively) and give up > 60% of receiving points to wideouts. Ja’mar Chase will be back soon, but right now, it’s Tee Higgins time!
That’s the end of my featured players. Like last week’s article, I’ll move on to my version of the two-minute drill and fire off some additional matchups that are trending for me in week 12.
Davante Adams, Raiders: Quote from last week’s article, “If the Raiders are going to win, Adams will need to remain highly targeted.” Matching up against the #2 defense versus WRs, Adams received 13 targets (7 rec, 141 yds & 2 TDs), and the Raiders won. This week they get the #9 defense versus WRs. Wash, Rince, Repeat!
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals: DeAndre Hopkins is proving to be QB-proof. Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy under center, Hopkins continues to be a target magnet. In Mexico City, Hopkins logged another double-digit target game and a 9-91 receiving line. Check out these numbers: The Chargers’ defense allows 64% of WR points per game to wideouts (36% to slot). Hopkins runs 64% of his routes from the wideout position. So, naturally, there’s a 64% chance Hopkins has another double-digit target game, right? I’m betting the “OVER” on that one.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: What can I say about Amon-Ra St. Brown that hasn’t been said already? The dude is a star. Another eight targets versus a top-10 defense resulted in 15 PPR fantasy points. Sure, our expectations are high for 20+ point games, and some owners may be getting a little nervous, but I say to take a breath and relax. Those games are coming soon. I’m circling the Week 13 game against the Jaguars for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him holding a turkey leg after a Lions upset of the Bills, either.
Mark Andrews, Ravens: Mark Andrews received eight targets in Week 11, signaling he’s back and ready to be one of our few elite TEs again. He only logged a DNP for one game, but as any Andrews owner can tell you (myself included), it seemed an eternity since his dismantling of the Giants in Week 6. The Ravens need to get their offense clicking again, and all signs point to this train leaving the station against the Jaguars.
Agree/Disagree? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Also, feel free to send any trade questions or roster decisions. I’m always happy to provide some fantasy advice to our loyal followers. Good luck with all your teams…unless you’re competing against me!
