Welcome, football fans, to the Razzball Air Yards Report. This is the place where we look at thrown footballs (both caught and NOT caught) to try and predict which receivers might have some positive and negative regression coming their way. Week 14 was another wild week in the 2023 air yards season, as you will see below.
If you want a refresher on what air yards are and how to best use them, here are my takeaways from 2022 air yards data. In this iteration of the air yards primer, we will look ahead to Week 15 of the fantasy football season and see who might be due for some positive or negative regression. I hope you will join me each and every Thursday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in air yards.
Want more data-driven stats and tools to help you win your fantasy league? Check out the Razzball Fantasy Football premium subscriptions for $0.00 upfront with our 3-day free trial!
Week 14 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data
Below we have air yards and receiving data courtesy of FTN.com. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.Â
This list represents the top 66 wide receivers from most to least air yards. From Zay Jones’ 225 all the way down to Courtland Sutton’s 39. I color-coded this to make the referencing easier to identify. If a wide receiver was closer to the top of a category, the darker green the number would be. The bottom of the list is primarily orange into red.Â
Just an easy eye test from the colors on this chart gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 14. We will dig into the five biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset.Â
Top 5 Takeaways From Week 14 Air Yards Data
Zay Gets the Christian Kirk Work
With Christian Kirk sidelined for perhaps the year, both Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley got an uptick in targets, as did Evan Engram. However, it was Zay Jones who got the bombs downfield to the tune of 225 air yards. Trevor Lawrence, clearly not at 100%, was only able to give Jones targets that could accumulate 29 yards, but this clearly signals big things ahead for Jones.Â
Jones’ average depth of target (aDOT) was over 16 yards on Sunday, more than two yards more than his season average. With the targets now almost completely limited to Jones, Ridley, Engram, and Travis Etienne, even one or two of these bombs per game should help Jones immensely in fantasy contests. The Jaguars have a lot of work to do in their division and in the AFC standings, so this should be a mighty fine four weeks for Jones and the Jacksonville receivers.Â
Baker Mayfield Pumpkin Game
Well, Baker Mayfield, finally, Baker Mayfield again. Look at those air yards for his receivers: 214 combined for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, certainly something that we are used to in 2023. But those air yards produced just six catches for 61 yards. This was the bad version of Mayfield we have seen the past couple of years, but somehow, the Buccaneers still found a way to win (it helps to have Rachaad White).Â
If you saw his plays to the receivers, they really weren’t that bad. The LONG bomb to Mike Evans that he caught but just couldn’t stay inbounds for a touchdown. Other just-missed plays all over the field as well. He was bailed out by a late Cade Otton touchdown, but even Otton had 56 air yards and just 16 receiving yards. We just have to hope the 2023 clock has not struck midnight for Mayfield just yet.Â
The Wilson Bros.
Zach and Garrett. Garrett and Zach. A tale as old as time. Beauty and the Beast (Zach is obviously the Beast). With Zach Wilson back under center, Garrett Wilson was heavily targeted once again, and since these weren’t Tim Boyle or Trevor Semien targets, Garrett was able to catch many of them. His final stat line was nine catches for 108 yards on 14 targets.Â
There were exactly two other targets thrown to other Jets receivers on Sunday, so you have to at least give Zach some credit for knowing where his bread is buttered. After this 300-yard masterpiece from Zach, we can now have confidence starting Garrett in our fantasy playoff lineups. His 69% of air yards trailed only Jerry Jeudy on the week.Â
The New Mingo Strategy
On the season, Carolina Panthers’ receiver Jonathan Mingo has an aDOT of 11 yards. That’s a decent number for a player who is essentially a possession receiver, and not thought of as a downfield threat. In Week 14, that number exploded to 17.7 yards. In fact, all of the Panthers’ receivers (Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, etc.) all had big aDOT games as the new Panthers’ coaching staff is clearly saying, “YOLO, we don’t have our top pick, let’s just let Bryce Young sling it and see what he’s got.”
Well, Bryce Young ain’t got it, but it could at least make things interesting for players like Mingo down the stretch. Among wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 14, Mingo’s aDOT was the sixth-highest in the league. For some context, on the season, among receivers with at least 50 targets, Mingo ranks 30th with his 11-yard aDOT. There may be no more inaccurate throw in football than a Bryce Young deep pass (which is why Mingo finished with just 22 yards on two catches), but give them credit for at least trying.Â
Houston Has a Problem
In a span of two weeks, the Houston Texans offense has gone from rocket traveling at the speed of light to a busted-up Sputnik that looks uninspiring without its Captain. As of Thursday, C.J. Stroud had not practiced, and even with Dalton Schultz back, the offense will be missing Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Those injuries, combined with the miserable New York weather, produced some horrific wide receiver lines in Week 14.Â
Noah Brown, with 108 air yards and no receiving yards, stands out, but so does 66 air yards and six receiving yards for John Metchie. Robert Woods only saw 25 air yards, and Xavier Hutchinson got 20. If it’s Davis Mills and the B-Team against the Titans on Sunday, no one who is healthy inspires any sort of confidence.Â
