Week 15 Target Trends: Playoffs Are Here!

Can you believe the fantasy football regular season is over? As it tends to happen every year, the NFL season takes so long to get started, but once it does, it seems to go by at a blazing pace. Despite the speed, the regular fantasy season is a grind. For those reading this, you’re likely in a season-long points league or successfully qualified for your fantasy playoffs—either way, great on you for sticking through it all and remaining in contention. Personally, I enjoy the excitement of the playoffs, so I’m writing for those of you in the latter situation but always welcome all you points leaguers as well.  

We don’t score targets in fantasy football, but they can be a great resource in predicting future output. That will be so critical these next few weeks for all of us hunting for Championships. Therefore, my target analysis will focus on the fantasy playoffs this week. 

Unfortunately, I won’t be able to hit on all your players in the article, so if you want specific analysis, drop me a line in the comments below, and I’ll help you out.    

Let’s get right to the good stuff!

Week 14 Target Monsters/Week 15 Outlook: 

Evan Engram, Jaguars:  Evan Engram had the game of his life last week in the Music City with 11 receptions for 162 yards and two scores. The 39.2 fantasy points came on 15 targets, more than the previous four weeks combined. With this monster performance, Engram was a popular waiver wire add going into the fantasy playoffs. However, I’m not buying into this breakout. The next two opponents (Cowboys and Jets) are top 10 defenses versus TEs, and Engram just doesn’t have the track record to justify our confidence. If you’re streaming TEs for the playoffs, there are some better options out there (see below).                                  

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks:  Since this edition of Target Trends doubles as a playoff preview, I need to discuss Tyler Lockett. @BobbyLamarco and I did a Slot v Wide playoff preview show recently, and I featured Tyler Lockett as my feature slot receiver to target in the fantasy playoffs. Lockett has been averaging 5-8 targets per week but surpassed that in the past two games (12 and 9, respectively). He also has a TD in each of the past six games. He’s simply a must-start and has a nice matchup to kick off the fantasy playoff against an SF team that ranks bottom third in the league versus slot receivers.             

Chris Moore, Texans:  With both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out, Chris Moore stepped up and delivered a 10 rec/124-yard performance. These numbers were a result of his season-best 11 targets working primarily out of the slot. The fact that this came on the road against a good Dallas defense makes it even more impressive. The Texans draw a great receiver matchup when the Chiefs come to town. The Chiefs’ defense allows 36 fantasy PPG to receivers. With Cooks and Collins still questionable, Moore looks to be in line for a good chunk of those fantasy points, making him a great WR #3 or Flex play this week. Should one or both suit up as well, downgrade Moore just a bit but still worthy of a start.               

Zay Jones, Jaguars:  Despite being limited by a chest injury leading up to Week 14, Zay Jones delivered a 20+ fantasy point game on 12 targets. This makes 3 of the last four weeks with double-digit targets. Working out of the slot a majority of the time, Zay will try to duplicate Chris Moore’s day against a Cowboys defense that may still be licking its wounds. Unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t get any friendlier after Week 15 when the Jags travel to NYJ and HOU, both with top-10 defenses versus WRs. We love the volume but proceed with caution here. His best fantasy days may be in the rear-view mirror.   

DeVonta Smith, Eagles:  If you tuned into the Razzball Sunday morning Start/Sit show, you heard a couple of us were in on DeVonta Smith against a top-10 Giants defense versus WRs.  What made him attractive to me was the fact that the G-men allow the vast majority of WR points (77%) to wideouts, whereas Smith runs two-thirds of his routes. Additionally, Smith has eight or more targets in six of the past seven games, leading to double-digit fantasy scoring in four of those games. The Bears are a little more in line with the NFL average with scoring to wideouts (58%), though. Smith may not see a monster game but should provide a solid floor as a WR3 or Flex option.   

That’s the end of my featured players. Like last week’s article, I’ll move on to my version of the two-minute drill and fire off some additional matchups that are trending for me in week 15.  

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers:  Chris Godwin continues to get a large chunk of Brady’s targets (9 this week) and seems to do enough to reach double-digit fantasy points each week. In fact, Godwin has reached the double-digit threshold each week since Week 1, yet only scored two TDs on the season. The Bengals come to town in Week 15 with their solid slot defense primed to break this streak. Godwin is a must-start on your playoff team regardless but temper expectations a bit.         

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions:  Amon-Ra St. Brown stays in the article again after a 9-target week. Unlike the Bills and Jaguars in the previous two weeks, the Vikings held St. Brown to a disappointing 13.4 PPR points. The fact that 13+ fantasy points are disappointing speaks volumes for how far St. Brown has ascended this season. With the Lions traveling to play the Jets at MetLife Stadium, don’t be surprised if Amon-Ra is held down once again.           

Keenan Allen, Chargers:  Week 14 confirmed what I thought last week…Keenan Allen is officially back. Now four weeks into his return, Allen is averaging 11 targets and over 18 fantasy points per game. We should see more of the same against a Titans defense ranking amongst the worst against receivers.         

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings:  T.J. Hockenson remains a strong TE play with eight targets, six receptions and 77 yards against his former squad. Over the last six games, Cousins has targeted his big TE a total of 49 times. He’s likely to remain a strong TE play against the Colts and Giants these next two weeks.       

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys:  Keeping with the TE theme, Dalton Schultz has been ascending of late after a dreadful start of the season and a multi-week knee injury. Since the Week 9 bye, Schultz has averaged seven targets per week and scored double-digit points in four of the last six games. The Jaguars are in the lower third of NFL defenses versus TEs and are especially vulnerable to receivers in the slot. So start him with confidence this week.      

Gerald Everett, Chargers:  Yet another TE makes the list with eight targets on Monday Night Football. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams making noise in the secondary, Gerald Everett reached a target level he hasn’t seen since Week 9. He’s overdue for a TD (no TDs since Week 4), but the Titans allow the 2^nd most targets to TEs, so we’re rolling with confidence this week.            

Agree/Disagree? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Also, feel free to send any trade questions or roster decisions. I’m always happy to provide some fantasy advice to our loyal followers. Good luck with all your team…unless you’re competing against me!