This season, I’ll be taking you through my favorite wide receiver start/sits using the brilliant Slot vs Wide tool on the Razzball website. This tool is revolutionary in analyzing not just the difficulty of a wide receiver’s matchup but also the success of their opponent against a specific style of player. I recommend using it to help you with those tough start-sit decisions though you’re welcome to add your questions in the comments too. Please also check out my rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com and you can find my long-form videos on the Fantasy First Down YouTube channel and my Slot/Wide analysis on the Razzball Fantasy YouTube channel.
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool
Top WR Starts
- Player: Malik Nabers
- Matchup: Falcons
- Out Wide Matchup Rank: 1
Malik Nabers has a very high floor but since his injury he didn’t have a top 24 fantasy finish, until Week 15. This week he’s got a good chance of backing that up in a top matchup against the Falcons.
- Player: Brian Thomas Jr
- Matchup: Raiders
- Out Wide Matchup Rank: 7
I called Brian Thomas a sit last week and I was very, very wrong. And I was punished for my sins as he also knocked me out of one of my leagues. This week, he gets a favorable Raiders matchup. He’s a must start.
- Player: Jakobi Meyers
- Matchup: Jaguars
- Out Wide Matchup Rank: 9
Jakobi Meyers is literally* 50% of the Raiders’ offense. This week, surprisingly, the Raiders are favorites. Surely that should lead to a big week for Meyers given they can’t move the ball on the ground.
- Player: Cooper Kupp
- Matchup: Jets
- Slot Matchup Rank: 1
It’s whacky to think of the Jets as being the league’s best slot matchup and yet here we are. I’d expect a squeaky wheel game for Cooper Kupp after his Week 15 donut. It’s hard to go back when you’ve been hurt so recently but I’d encourage you to give this man one more chance.
Desperation WR Starts
Michael Pittman Jr (IND vs TEN): Michael Pittman has stepped up since his return from injury, but he remains very much an end-of-bench desperation option. While the Titans do tend to concede most of their receiver points to the outside guys and Alec Pierce is battling injury, it’s still impossible to trust Pittman this week.
All Packers Receivers (GB vs NO): Honestly, I tossed up putting these guys in the exception section. It’s just so hard to trust any of the Packers at home in winter despite the plus matchup against the Saints. But I do think there’s touchdown upside for Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed and yardage upside for Christian Watson. So especially in a non-PPR league, I think they’re viable deeper options.
Demario Douglas (NE @ BUF): The Bills are the league’s second-best slot matchup and Demario Douglas has arguably been the Patriots’ best receiving weapon, despite a quiet couple of games recently. I’m expecting a bounce back in Week 16.
Top WR Sits
- Player: Jordan Addison
- Matchup: Seahawks
- Out Wide Matchup Rank: 30
Jordan Addison has had a fantastic last five games, but I’d prefer to avoid starting him in Week 16 against the Seahawks. The Seattle defense is brutal out wide and has been particularly good over the last month.
- Player: Jaylen Waddle
- Matchup: 49ers
- Out Wide Matchup Rank: 29
I like Jaylen Waddle as a Week 17 stash but I’m unwilling to trust him in Week 16 against the 49ers, especially given his recent knee injury.
- Player: Darnell Mooney
- Matchup: Giants
- Out Wide Matchup Rank:26
I’m feeling very unsure of Darnell Mooney this week. The Giants tend to be frugal to outside receivers and Michael Penix is a massive question mark. That’s enough for me to avoid Mooney this week if I can help it. Though I should mention that he does have more upside than most and if that’s what you need, he’s a desperation option.
- Player: Josh Downs
- Matchup: Titans
- Slot Matchup Rank: 32
The Titans are the league’s toughest slot matchup. When combined with his recent return from injury, that’s enough for me to rule out starting Josh Downs in fantasy this week.
WR Exceptions
Zay Flowers (BAL vs PIT): Sure this is technically a top three matchup for an outside receiver but I can’t trust a guy without a top 30 fantasy finish since week 9. Last time he faced the Steelers in Week 11, Flowers had just 39 yards on two receptions. I’d rather look elsewhere for WR production.
DK Metcalf (SEA vs MIN): In Week 11, DK Metcalf finished as the WR31. Since then, he has gotten worse every single week. Sure, a bounce back is positive in a very good Vikings matchup, but gosh I’d rather not risk DK if I can avoid him.
Terry McLaurin (WAS vs PHI): The Eagles are a very scary out wide matchup but there’s nothing too scary for Scary Terry. He’s a risky but very high upside start for your fantasy semi-final.
* – Not actually literally.
Good luck in Week 16 and remember, every player will be a sit in some leagues and a start in others so if you have any start-sit questions, drop them in the comments below or hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Defense | Total PPG Allowed | Slot PPG Allowed | Wide PPG Allowed | Slot% | Wide% | Next Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 41.8 | 13.0 | 28.9 | 32% | 68% | PIT | |
| ATL | 41.7 | 9.2 | 32.5 | 20% | 80% | ARZ | |
| LA | 38.2 | 9.1 | 29.1 | 24% | 76% | SEA | |
| DAL | 37.2 | 13.4 | 23.8 | 32% | 68% | LAC | |
| TEN | 36.6 | 12.1 | 24.5 | 31% | 69% | KC | |
| WAS | 33.6 | 10.3 | 23.3 | 30% | 70% | PHI | |
| NYG | 33.1 | 11.1 | 22.1 | 32% | 68% | MIN | |
| GB | 32.5 | 10.2 | 22.3 | 23% | 77% | CHI | |
| IND | 32.1 | 12.1 | 19.9 | 40% | 60% | SF | |
| TB | 31.9 | 11.2 | 20.7 | 40% | 60% | CAR | |
| KC | 31.7 | 9.5 | 22.2 | 32% | 68% | TEN | |
| CAR | 31.6 | 12.3 | 19.3 | 39% | 61% | TB | |
| LV | 31.6 | 9.1 | 22.6 | 32% | 68% | HST | |
| JAX | 31.5 | 10.7 | 20.9 | 35% | 65% | DEN | |
| SF | 30.6 | 13.4 | 17.3 | 42% | 58% | IND | |
| DEN | 30.0 | 10.7 | 19.3 | 38% | 62% | JAX | |
| CHI | 29.7 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 46% | 54% | GB | |
| NFL Average | 29.3 | 10.0 | 19.3 | 35% | 65% | ||
| NE | 29.0 | 12.7 | 16.3 | 48% | 52% | BLT | |
| ARZ | 28.9 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 34% | 66% | ATL | |
| BLT | 28.6 | 8.8 | 19.8 | 31% | 69% | NE | |
| MIA | 28.5 | 10.7 | 17.8 | 37% | 63% | CIN | |
| NO | 26.0 | 6.4 | 19.6 | 29% | 71% | NYJ | |
| BUF | 25.7 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 42% | 58% | CLV | |
| NYJ | 25.7 | 8.2 | 17.5 | 30% | 70% | NO | |
| PIT | 25.0 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 35% | 65% | DET | |
| HST | 24.3 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 42% | 58% | LV | |
| PHI | 22.0 | 4.8 | 17.2 | 28% | 72% | WAS | |
| LAC | 21.3 | 7.1 | 14.2 | 35% | 65% | DAL | |
| MIN | 20.0 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 37% | 63% | NYG | |
| CLV | 19.0 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 47% | 53% | BUF | |
| SEA | 18.7 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 29% | 71% | LA | |
| CIN | 18.4 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 32% | 68% | MIA |
